Topic: Foreign Policy and National Security

America Should Stop Paying to Defend the World

Donald Trump is a genius for gaining media attention. Sometimes his opinions also reflect basic common sense.

Consider his complaint that Washington’s prosperous allies in Asia and Europe don’t pay enough in return. Defenders of the status quo contend that it is in America’s interest to subsidize its allies, as if they were defending the United States.

Advocates of the status quo also argue that U.S. allies contribute to U.S. basing costs. That’s true but irrelevant. The fact that countries defended by America help cover Washington’s cost of stationing U.S. troops is notable only because allied free- (or cheap-) riding has been so shameless for so long.

As I pointed out in CNN online: “The most important cost for America is that of creating the forces deployed, wherever they are stationed. Every security commitment requires additional personnel and equipment. America’s oversized military budget reflects America’s many formal and possible security guarantees: 27 NATO members, alliance wannabes Georgia and Ukraine, various East Asian allies and friends, several Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations.”

Washington accounts for roughly 40 percent of the globe’s military outlays in order to project power on behalf of other states. Providing a defense shield for war-ravaged nations originally made sense. But that world has passed away.

Washington should stop defending its prosperous, populous allies. They should pay for their own defense and confront future security threats as equals.

 

Egypt’s Military Regime Grows More Brutal

The Middle East has long been hostile to Christians and other religious minorities. Among those at risk are Egypt’s Copts.

During the reign of dictator Hosni Mubarak, the U.S. State Department called the status of Egyptian religious liberty “poor” and noted that Christians and Baha’is faced “personal and collective discrimination.” Attacks on Copts were common, and perpetrators rarely were prosecuted.

Mubarak’s overthrow led Copts to hope for a freer and safer Egypt. But under Mubarak’s successor, President Mohamed Morsi, violence against Copts increased. Morsi was not the only culprit. In one infamous case, the military–then headed by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi–shot down more than a score of Coptic protesters.

Two years ago, al-Sisi overthrew Morsi and eventually became president. Alas, the military used extreme brutality—killing hundreds of demonstrators on the streets of Cairo—to maintain control.

Coptic Pope Tawadros II publicly supported the coup. But the church remained as vulnerable as it was visible, and was targeted by angry Islamists. Dozens of churches were destroyed.

“Death Rays” May Take Aim at Drones Near Airports

At first glance, it might seem that eagles, net-shooting bazookas, and “death rays” don’t have much in common. However, each has been proposed as a possible way to deal with errant drones that stray where they’re not supposed to be, including airports. The issues surrounding drones at airports re-emerged earlier this month when a drone reportedly hit an Airbus A320 approaching London’s Heathrow Airport. While it is not absolutely clear that the object that hit the plane was a drone, the incident does raise questions about how lawmakers and regulators should deal with drones buzzing around near airports. 

Anti-drone “death ray” machines may sound initially like an effective way to deal with drones hampering flights. Yet, such a device would probably not have been useful in the case near Heathrow. According to the Metropolitan Police, the drone hit the plane at 1,700ft (the legal drone limit is 400ft) above Richmond Park, the largest enclosed space in London. For those unfamiliar with London’s geography, below is a map showing where Richmond Park is in relation to Heathrow Airport.  

You Ought to Have a Look: Paris Climate Agreement

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

With Earth Day and the grand signing ceremony for the Paris Climate Agreement just around the corner, we thought it apt to highlight some relevant stories from around the web, particularly those critical of the central climate control enterprise.

Recall that we have pointed out the Paris Climate Agreement represents little more than a business-as-usual approach that has been spun to suggest that it represents a collective, international effort in response to a climate change “concern.” Increasing opportunities for riding your bike (etc.) now have been rebranded as efforts to save the world. Right.

We’ve shown that the U.S. pledge under the Paris “Don’t Call It a Treaty” Agreement, while a bit more aggressive than many, turns out to basically be impossible. Putting our name on such pledge seems a bit disingenuous, to put it mildly.

On top of all this comes a new economic analysis from the Heritage Foundation that basically shows that the U.S. intension under the Agreement would be mucho bad news. Here are the Key Points from the report “Consequences of Paris Protocol: Devastating Economic Costs, Essentially Zero Environmental Benefits”:

 

Domestic Developments in U.S.-Saudi Relations

In the run-up to President Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia later this week, two domestic issues which concern the U.S.-Saudi relationship are also gaining attention. Yet these developments – a congressional bill which allows Americans to sue foreign governments for supporting terrorist groups, and growing calls to declassify the remaining 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission’s report - are unlikely to substantially impact the U.S.-Saudi relationship, which is already on a downward trend due to other, more substantive factors.

Certainly, the bill would have major legal implications for relatives of victims of the 9/11 attacks, who have previously tried to sue the Saudi government for their possible involvement. However, their hope that the declassified report would yield a better understanding of the scope of that involvement is unlikely to yield any smoking gun revelations.

Some of the purported revelations are, in fact, already known. It has been long known that Saudi Arabia has had a hand in the spread, through schools and philanthropic endeavors, of a certain kind of extremist Islamic philosophy often described as Wahhabism. That this philosophy is shared by various radical groups including ISIS and Al Qaeda is likewise well-known, but there is no evidence that the Saudi government ever provided material support to either group.

Is Washington Courting India as an Anti-China Ally?

The just completed visit of Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter to India has generated considerable speculation.  That is especially true in China, where opinion leaders noted not only was this was Carter’s second trip to India during his relatively short tenure as Pentagon chief, but that he cancelled a previously scheduled trip to Beijing so that he could make this latest journey.  That move, they feared, suggested a rather unsubtle tilt against China in favor of one of its potential geostrategic competitors.

The agreement that came from Carter’s visit will do nothing to reassure the Chinese.  Carter and his Indian counterpart, Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar, pledged to increase logistical cooperation in the military arena, especially maritime cooperation.  Although that agreement is still a considerable distance away from constituting a full-fledged military alliance between the two nations, it continues a trend that has emerged over the past decade of ever deepening strategic ties.  And mutual concerns about China’s ambitions appear to be the driving force in the bilateral relationship.

At a minimum, the United States appears to be trying to put in place the building blocks of a containment policy directed against China, if U.S. leaders later decide that such a full-blown policy has become necessary.  On this same trip, Carter made a stop in the Philippines to reassure that country of strong U.S. backing in its South China Sea territorial dispute with China. Apparently previous statements by the Secretary of State and President Obama himself, combined with a buildup of U.S. troops in the island nation were not sufficient evidence of resolve.

And Carter’s sojourn in India must be seen in the larger context of Washington’s efforts to strengthen its long-standing alliances with South Korea and Japan and to forge cooperative military ties with such former adversaries as Vietnam.  Along with Japan, though, India would be the biggest prize as a strategic ally.

Despite the wishes of some Sinophobes in Washington, we are likely to see a more measured response from India.  Delhi has much to lose and little to gain by becoming a cat’s paw ally of the United States against China.  That is especially true if Washington is not willing to sever its close ties with India’s arch-enemy, Pakistan.  Yet as long as U.S. leaders insist on waging a “war on terror” with a major Central Asia/South Asia component, centered in Afghanistan, they will not cut Washington’s supposed Pakistani ally loose.  And as long as that is the case, Indian leaders and the Indian public will view professions of U.S. loyalty to their country’s vital interests with justifiable skepticism.

Moreover, shrewd Indian policymakers may conclude that the best position for their country is one of constructive neutrality in the growing tensions between the United States and China.  Whatever side India would take, it would anger one of those great powers, lose potential benefits, and increase its risk level.  Only if China truly adopted a policy of rogue expansionism is that sober calculation likely to change.  In the meantime, Ash Carter and other American suitors may press their courtship of India, but they are likely to come away disappointed.

Calls to “Do More” in the South China Sea Miss Bigger Questions

The territorial dispute between China and multiple Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea (SCS) is the most pressing geopolitical issue in U.S.-China relations. The United States has responded to Chinese island building by increasing its military presence around the SCS and coordinating with friendly countries. However, criticism of the Obama administration’s approach, grounded on the presumption that U.S. efforts to date have been inadequate, calls to mind a set of lyrics from the anti-Vietnam War anthem “Fortunate Son” by Creedence Clearwater Revival:

And when you ask them, ‘How much should we give?’
They only answer More! More! More!”

It is difficult to determine what exactly “more” means given the already high level of U.S. activity in the SCS since the USS Lassen conducted a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in late October 2015. Since then, the U.S. Navy has conducted another FONOP in addition to other patrols involving aircraft carrier strike groups. Additionally, Philippine-U.S. military cooperation has reached its highest point since American forces were ejected from the country in 1991. Notable examples of cooperation are the recently finalized agreement for the U.S. military to set up “permanent logistics facilities” at five Filipino air bases, and tens of millions of dollars in military aid to improve the Philippines’ maritime patrol and surveillance capabilities.