Topic: Tax and Budget Policy

Challenge for Keynesian Anti-Sequester Hysterics, Part II: Why Did America’s Economy Boom When Reagan and Clinton Cut Spending?

Triggered by an appearance on Canadian TV, I asked yesterday why we should believe anti-sequester Keynesians. They want us to think that a very modest reduction in the growth of government spending will hurt the economy, yet Canada enjoyed rapid growth in the mid-1990s during a period of substantial budget restraint. I make a similar point in this debate with Robert Reich, noting that  the burden of government spending was reduced as a share of economic output during the relatively prosperous Reagan years and Clinton years:

Being a magnanimous person, I even told Robert he should take credit for the Clinton years since he was labor secretary. Amazingly, he didn’t take me up on my offer.

Challenge for Keynesian Anti-Sequester Hysterics, Part I: Why Did Canada’s Economy Boom When the Burden of Spending Was Sharply Reduced?

In this appearance on Canadian TV, I  debunk anti-sequester hysteria, pointing out that “automatic budget cuts” merely restrain government so that it grows $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years rather than $2.5 trillion.

I also point out that we shouldn’t worry about government employees getting a slight haircut since federal bureaucrats are overcompensated. Moreover, I warn that some agencies may deliberately try to inconvenience people in an attempt to extort more tax revenue.

But I think the most important point in the interview was the discussion of what happened in Canada in the 1990s.

This example is important because the Obama White House is making the Keynesian argument that a smaller burden of government spending somehow will translate into less growth and fewer jobs.

Nobody should believe them, of course, since they used this same discredited theory to justify the so-called stimulus and all their predictions were wildly wrong.

But the failed 2009 stimulus showed the bad things that happen when government spending rises, and maybe the big spenders want us to think the relationship doesn’t hold when government gets put on a diet?

Well, here’s some data from the International Monetary Fund showing that the Canadian economy enjoyed very strong growth when policymakers imposed a near-freeze on government outlays between 1992 and 1997. 

 

For more information on this remarkable period of fiscal restraint, as well as evidence of what happened in other nations that curtailed government spending, here’s a video with lots of additional information.

By the way, we also have a more recent example of successful budget reductions. Estonia and the other Baltic nations ignored Keynesian snake-oil when the financial crisis hit and instead imposed genuine spending cuts.

The result? Growth has recovered and these nations are doing much better than the European countries that decided that big tax hikes and/or Keynesian spending binges were the right approach.

Paul Krugman, not surprisingly, got this wrong.

Big Candy’s Greed

That’s the title of a quarter-page advertisement in the Washington Post on Wednesday.

When it comes to inside-the-Beltway economics, black is white, up is down, and lobbyists for some of the most government-coddled farmers in America are calling other people greedy.

For people familiar with the government’s Byzantine sugar program, the text from the American Sugar Alliance (ASA) ad is frankly hilarious:

  • Jeopardizing 142,000 U.S. jobs and America’s food security isn’t a game. It’s a travesty.
  • So why are Big Candy executives lobbying Congress to outsource America’s sugar production?
  • To boost their already bloated profit margins at the expense of American farmers, workers and consumers.
  • Winners: A few corporate executives.
  • Losers: America.

I described the basic features of federal sugar subsidies in this study. Essentially, the government confers monopoly power on U.S. sugar growers, which comes at the expense of food manufacturing companies and consumers. 

The ASA ad claims that there are 142,000 jobs in the sugar-growing industry, but there are roughly 1,000,000 jobs in the food manufacturing firms that are hurt by current sugar policies. The Department of Commerce produced this study looking at the negative employment effects of the current sugar program.

One silly claim in the ASA ad regards outsourcing. The sugar program raises U.S. sugar prices, which induces U.S. manufacturers—such as candy makers—to move their production abroad. Thus current federal policies unfairly protect Big Sugar at the expense of Big Candy, but here Big Sugar is claiming the reverse. 

The other silly thing about the outsourcing claim is that the biggest of ASA’s Big Sugar companies are owned by the Fanjuls of Florida. And yet the Fanjuls themselves outsource sugar production to the Dominican Republic.

And note that whatever lobbying is done by Big Candy is surely dwarfed by Big Sugar’s legendary efforts to buy political protection. Just ask Monica Lewinsky.

A policy wonk quoted in this piece summarized the sad reality of sugar growers: “They are unlike any other industry in Florida in that they aren’t in the agricultural business, they are in the corporate welfare business.” 

Sequestration and Voter Ignorance

Sheldon Richman and I spent a lot of time last week running through numbers from the Congressional Budget Office in order to gauge sequestration’s effect on federal spending. In the resulting column, Richman lays out the numbers and asks a pertinent question: How the $#!?% is the average voter supposed to have a clue about this stuff? 

From Richman’s column: 

I subjected myself to this pain because I’m a professional masochist. I’m paid to do it. How many people who are not so rewarded are likely to search for, locate, and download CBO spreadsheets to see the numbers for themselves? Very few, I’ll bet. And who can blame those who won’t? They have families, friends, communities, and jobs to attend to — matters they actually affect through their actions. But if most people don’t have time or incentive to learn the facts about this one issue (never mind all the others) — and if the news media can’t be counted on to tell the plain story — how can Americans fill the role of “informed voters” that democracy in theory requires? 

Next year there will be congressional elections. If a voter doesn’t know the facts about the budget, she won’t be able to judge the sequestration issue. And if she can’t do that, how can she intelligently decide which congressional candidate to vote for? 

Most people would say that voting for Congress is important, so why don’t they spend time doing this necessary research? Because they know that the effort would have no real payoff. Time is scarce, and there are always other uses of one’s time that really will make a difference. The average congressional district has 600,000 residents, three-quarters of whom are of voting age. No single vote will determine who gets elected or what policies are enacted — that is, no matter what you do, the outcome will be the same. And should your favorite candidate win and enact his program, you would pay only a tiny fraction of the total cost of that candidate’s policies; most of the cost would fall on others. So why exert much effort?

And that’s why Democrats (and Republicans devoted to the U.S. military empire) have spent the past few weeks trying to scare the pants off of voters. It remains to be seen if their efforts will pay political dividends. Saturday Night Live’s mocking of the administration’s sky-is-falling posture is a hopeful indication that the anti-spending cuts politicians might have overplayed their hand. Keep in mind, however, that we’re only talking about $44 billion in spending cuts versus $3.5 trillion in total spending this year. The cuts would have to be multiplied by a factor of almost twenty just to balance the budget. 

Imagine the hysteria if that were on the table. 

Those of us who would prefer to live under a vastly more limited federal government have our work cut out for us in convincing the average American that bigger isn’t always better

Herbert Hoover Was No Penny Pincher

In a story regarding federal budget cuts, the Washington Post reports: 

‘One of the last presidents to balance the budget was Herbert Hoover,’ [Rep. Peter] King added darkly, referring to the penny-pinching Republican blamed for deepening the Great Depression.

What a loaded and inaccurate statement! 

I just finished the fine new biography Coolidge by Amity Shlaes. Hoover plays a major part in the book as a long-time cabinet member of President Coolidge and his successor in the White House. Coolidge was about as frugal a president as we’ve had, and he dreaded that he would be followed by big-spender Hoover, who he knew would probably unravel his years of hard work at budget restraint. 

Coolidge fought against many new spending plans pushed in Congress, including flood control projects, farm subsidies, and higher veteran’s benefits. But Hoover worked behind the scenes during the Coolidge years to boost flood control spending. And when he became president, Hoover sadly gave into the farm lobbies and launched the first major subsidy schemes. 

In 1929 Hoover signed the Agricultural Marketing Act, which created the Federal Farm Board to subsidize agricultural cooperatives. I’ve noted that the scheme turned into a $500 million boondoggle, harming consumers and disrupting markets. 

As president, Coolidge worked long and hard to cut the federal budget to $3 billion and hold it at about that level from 1923 to 1929. But when he was president, Hoover jacked up the budget from $3.1 billion in 1929 to $4.7 billion in 1932. 

Shlaes concludes that Hoover “spent like a Democrat. But that spending hadn’t been enough to ensure even Hoover’s own reelection.” And contrary to the implication of the Washington Post, neither did Hoover’s big spending alleviate the Great Depression.

Let’s Shed a Tear for Under-Appreciated Bureaucrats

When I first read this story in the Washington Post about supposedly under-appreciated federal bureaucrats, I was tempted to focus on the sentence referring to “the sledgehammer of budget cuts scheduled to hit today.” Below is the Congressional Budget Office’s depiction of this “sledgehammer.” Does the Washington Post really think that a 1.2 percent reduction in overall spending for the current fiscal year (which means the federal budget would still be larger than it was last year) represents a “sledgehammer of budget cuts”?

But I just mocked the New York Times last week for its reporting about supposed “deep spending cuts” and I also nailed the Washington Post back in 2011 for using the term “slash” for a budget plan that would have shaved a miniscule $6 billion from a budget of $3,800 billion. So instead I want to focus on the part of the story featuring self-pitying remarks of federal bureaucrats.

Here’s a good sampling:

[F]ederal workers in [the government-employee-heavy Fairfax County neighborhood of] Mantua say … having “United States Treasury” atop their paycheck [now] means having to defend yourself against arguments, from strangers and even from your own relatives, that you’re an overpaid and underworked leech.

…[M]any federal workers are … bothered by the growing sense that the careers they chose may now seem unattractive, even unworthy. …[O]n a recent visit to Missouri, [one worker] got fed up with ritual denunciations of federal workers…

[Another worker named Raymond] Won, a federal worker for 31 years, resents the notion, now commonplace on talk radio and Web sites devoted to bashing the government, that federal workers carry a lighter load than their for-profit counterparts.

…[O]lder government workers … are concerned about their pensions but even more anxious about why politicians are so willing to make federal employees the target of popular rage.

Excuse me while I wipe away the tears and compose myself. There are so many stories of unbearable hardship:

  • It’s absolutely heartbreaking to read about those unfortunate, oppressed, and under-appreciated bureaucrats who live in “a leafy section of Fairfax County where houses sell in the $700,000 range.”
  • And you can understand my tears of sympathy for folks who, as one bureaucrat admitted, had jobs where the “pay was guaranteed and you couldn’t get laid off.”
  • Moreover, we all share the pain of bureaucrats who must deal with uncomfortable comparisons, such as the fact that “pensions, once considered routine, have become a wild luxury in the private sector, so when many Americans hear that public employees still get retirement pay, they can get frustrated.”

The American Consumer Grows Up

An article in Politico on Monday looked at the declining influence of agriculture in DC (I wish), comparing the touching/nauseating Chrysler ad paying homage to the American farmer that was aired during the Superbowl with the relative lack of political attention given to farm programs. How come people feel all warm and fuzzy when they watch the ad, and yet poor little agriculture can’t get any love?

Trying to sell Ram trucks, Chrysler made a splash in the Super Bowl this month with a two-minute television spot celebrating the American farmer — a montage of handsome still photos and a vintage Paul Harvey speech all ending with the pitch: “For the farmer in all of us.”

Nine days later, the picture was very different as President Barack Obama skipped over farmers entirely in his State of the Union address, never mentioning the yearlong farm bill stalemate in Congress nor even including “agriculture” among the thousands of words spoken that night…

“Agriculture has become so efficient, so few people actually raise the food … the American consumer has become almost like high school kids,” [House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank] Lucas said. “It’s always been there, it will always be there. Dad can I have the keys to the car? Does the car have gas in it? Oh, it will always have gas in it, right Dad?”

Are American consumers like teenagers? Are they spoiled, and taking agricultural production for granted? Is that why the farm bill is such a heavy lift? Or perhaps, just perhaps, the American consumer is growing up, questioning the cost and necessity of farm subsidies, and no longer falling for myths about the need for farm subsidies to prevent mass starvation. My colleague David Boaz, in a 2011 blog post, summarised the reasons why folks might oppose spending programs. As I read the Politico article and, specifically, the whining by the agri-industrial complex and its political backers, David’s second point came to mind:

We know that many wonderful things, perhaps including truly fast trains, could be created at massive cost, but that you always have to weigh costs and benefits. Children say, “I want it.” Adults say, “How much does it cost, and what would I have to give up to have it?”