The conventional wisdom is that the United States is a center‐right country while Canada is a center‐left one. Yet, even as the most‐left‐wing president in history occupies the White House, last night the Conservative Party of Canada — which had already been steering its ship of state in a fiscally prudent direction despite only having a plurality of seats in Parliament — won a decisive victory. Prime Minister Stephen Harper will thus lead the first first majority government by any party since 2004 (after the first election creating a majority government since 2000).
How can this be?
The answer comes down to three main factors:
- Electoral system. Canada has a multi‐party first‐past‐the‐post parliamentary system that currently features one united center‐right party and an opposition split among two major left‐wing parties, Quebec separatists, and a not‐inconsequential Green Party. Thus, the Tories’ 40% of the popular vote (up 2% since the 2008 election) translated to 166 of the 305 seats in Parliament (a gain of 23). Recall that John McCain won 45.7% of the vote in the 2008 presidential campaign.
- Timing of terms of office. If President Obama had run for re‐election yesterday — well, maybe not yesterday, the day after announcing the end of Osama bin Laden — he might very well have lost (depending on the vagaries of the electoral college and who the GOP ran against him). As it was, of course, the Republicans did win big in the 2010 midterms and stand to do so again in 2012 regardless of the result of the presidential election. Also, one of the themes of this year’s Canadian election was that the opposition forced an election that Canadians “did not want” and considered to be a waste of money.
- Leadership/personality. Barack Obama was a singular individual at a unique time (financial collapse, Bush fatigue, etc.). The leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, meanwhile, former Oxford and Harvard professor Michael Ignatieff, who hadn’t lived in the country for 30 years before entering Parliament in 2006 (see the Conservatives’ hilarious and devastating attack ads), was a wooden campaigner who failed to connect with the average voter.
And so, even as 60% of Canadians voted for a party other than the Conservatives — 31% New Democrats (socialist/labor), 19% Liberal, 6% Bloc Quebecois (separatists), 4% Green — they will have a Tory majority government until (probably) October 2015. Given that social issues don’t play much of a role in Canadian public affairs, this is generally a good result for friends of liberty. Now that he has his majority, we’ll see how much more Prime Minister Harper moves in the free‐market direction he has long said he would if given the opportunity.
For those interested in more than that basic synopsis and US/Canada comparison, read on below the fold.