Topic: Foreign Policy and National Security

An Unconvincing Evasion

Michael Goldfarb of the Weekly Standard offers what I think is a pretty unconvincing defense of his post that I criticized yesterday.

The whole thing started because Goldfarb thought it would be appropriate to snicker at the fact that Greenwald had estimated China’s annual defense spending at $65 billion. His post was titled “When Lefties Pretend to Know Anything About the Military,” and he sneered at those “who act like they understand military spending but find themselves flummoxed over terms like ‘purchasing power parity.’”

But in truth it is Michael Goldfarb who demonstrates beyond doubt that he is flummoxed over PPP. We can see this in the fact that he refuses to back down from his claim that $450 billion is a “pretty good guess” for Chinese defense spending. It’s not a pretty good guess. It’s absolutely absurd, and if he can find one serious PLA analyst anywhere who will endorse it, I’ll buy him lunch.

For reference, the Pentagon, which has historically offered the high-end estimate of all estimates of Chinese defense spending, argued in 2007 (.pdf) that Chinese defense spending was between $85 and $125 billion, much closer to Greenwald’s estimate than to the one that Goldfarb continues to endorse of $450 billion.

I don’t want to dry up this otherwise juicy conversation with a long discussion of defense economics, but since they’re so central to understanding why the $450 billion figure is absurd, I’ll just refer readers again here. (Goldfarb for some reason omitted the link from his excerpt of my post.) You can’t do what Tkacik does, and just blanket the CIA’s figure for the PLA budget with the PPP converter and then take that number out and run with it. Moreover, the World Bank estimate of the PPP converter for China was recently revised downward by 40 percent, further undermining the figure. Goldfarb seems either uninterested or unaware of this.

There are even more problems with the Ramesh Ponnuru/Goldfarb argument that we should view the entirety of the rest of the world as “criminals” or “arsonists” against whom we should judge our defense budget:

We’d expect the police department to have a budget many times that of all the criminals combined, wouldn’t we? Fire departments spend a lot more fighting arson than arsonists spend.

This is just nuts. Here is a listing of the top 10 defense spenders out there, from Greenwald’s list (I’m not sure whether the rankings are still exactly right, but you get the idea):

1. United States
2. China
3. Russia
4. France
5. United Kingdom
6. Japan
7. Germany
8. Italy
9. South Korea
10. India

These are the “criminals” against whom we are supposed to be arming ourselves? Okay, so Russia and China are on the list, and we aren’t absolutely certain of their intentions. But England?!? Japan? Italy? India? Is it really America Alone, taking on the rest of the world? Please. Is this sort of thing supposed to pass for serious analysis?

NCTC Acknowledges Foreign Policy Role in Radicalizing Muslims

Via Spencer Ackerman, the National Counterterrorism Center bends itself into all kinds of knots in its 2008 calendar. (?!?) The calendar apparently takes up some of the myths about radicalization. Among them:

MYTH: US foreign policy is the primary cause of radicalization.

REALITY: The grievances that fuel radicalization are diverse and vary across locations and groups. Radicalization frequently is driven by personal concerns at the local level in addition to frustration with international events.

So in the course of rebutting the “myth” that foreign policy is the primary cause of radicalization, the NCTC a) allows that foreign policy causes radicalism and b) declines to offer what it believes is the primary cause of radicalization. I think that’s what we’d call a “non-denial denial.” Somebody better tell Rudy Giuliani.

More on Chinese Military Spending

Michael Goldfarb of the Weekly Standard blog takes aim at this Glenn Greenwald post lamenting the fact that the U.S. spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined. In his post, Goldfarb protests that Greenwald is using a figure for Chinese defense spending that is too low and criticizes those “who act like they understand military spending but find themselves flummoxed over terms like ‘purchasing power parity.’”

Thankfully for all of us, Goldfarb called Globalsecurity.org’s John Pike, who was able to inform him that attempting to ascertain the exact level of Chinese military spending is a “fiendishly complex problem…[that] approaches not even being a meaningful question.”

I say thankfully, because Goldfarb must have come to his senses since he last took a crack at Chinese military spending. That time he consulted with the Heritage Foundation’s John Tkacik, who has been touting his argument that China’s military spending is roughly equivalent to U.S. defense spending. For reasons I’ve laid out in detail before here, this is not a serious argument. It’s not clear why Goldfarb has chosen to jettison Tkacik’s figure in favor of Mr. Pike’s caution, but it’s a welcome development. Still, it would be good to know whether Mr. Goldfarb now thinks he was mistaken to tout the absurd figure last March.

Then Goldfarb takes it on himself to declare that those who advocate a lower defense budget “just don’t understand the issues. And they shouldn’t pretend to.” One might say the same thing about basically everybody who wrote for the Weekly Standard about Iraq before the war, but that would be uncharitable. But the larger point is that Goldfarb’s statement isn’t even true, unless he thinks he can write, say, Richard Betts out of the debate.

Even if one accepts Goldfarb’s criticism of Greenwald’s figure for China’s defense expenditures, it doesn’t affect the finding that the U.S. spends more on defense than the rest of the world combined. Unless Goldfarb then wants to repair to Tkacik’s argument about the Chinese defense budget, which I don’t imagine he wants to. Either way, it’s odd to see someone waving his hands and advising that we be cautious with figures of Chinese defense spending when he chose to tout the most outlandish figure out there just several months back…

Australian National ID Card Abandoned

This somewhat cryptic blog post at Wired reflects the delight of Roger Clarke that the Australian national ID card has been dropped by the incoming government. Clarke wrote an article in 1994 that is probably fairly regarded as the foundation of identification theory. I expanded on his thinking in my book, Identity Crisis.

In related news, Montana Senators Max Baucus and Jon Tester put language prohibiting the expenditure of federal funds for development of a national ID card in the omnibus spending bill Congress passed last week. Because the Department of Homeland Security denies that REAL ID is a national ID, this language is probably hortatory during the current administration.

DHS: And We Even Obey the Law!

The Department of Homeland Security’s Officer for Civil Rights & Civil Liberties, Daniel W. Sutherland, explains here the great pains DHS is taking … well, not to embarrass itself as American Muslims return from the Hajj. Well and good.

But he goes a little far in touting the department’s efforts: “For the first time in the federal government, a Cabinet-level Secretary has placed two civil libertarians in senior leadership positions – Hugo Teufel, our Chief Privacy Officer, and me.”

The Officer for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties and the Privacy Officer are statutory positions. I’m not sure self-congratulation is in order for following the law.

Defeat Terrorism

Terrorism is a strategy used by the weak to goad the strong into self-injurious overreaction.

DownsizeDC has a campaign underway that I think is critical to defeating terrorism. It’s described on their site this way: “We’re looking for a few brave Americans to start a real war on terror — by not being afraid!”

The “I am Not Afraid” campaign is not about passing or killing any legislation. It is just to get Washington, D.C.’s consistent overreaction to the threat of terrorism under control. The sense of proportion this campaign seeks to create really makes it worth a visit, but here’s a taste:

Nearly 800,000 people have died in car accidents in the last twenty years. During that time there have been exactly two Islamic terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, with less than 3,000 total fatalities. That’s more than 200 TIMES as many Americans dying in their cars as at the hands of Islamic terrorism. And yet …We’ve turned the whole world upside down in response to the two terrorist attacks. We’ve launched invasions, created vast new bureaucracies, shredded the Bill of Rights, compounded regulations, spent hundreds of billions of dollars, and disrupted travel and commerce. But no one is suggesting that we do 200 times as much to address the driving risk, which is 200 times greater.

Terror warriors, keep your straw men in the barn. This is not a pacifist, terrorism-denial campaign. It seeks proportional responses to threats, and acceptance of harms that cannot reasonably be prevented. The message to legislators:

“I am not afraid of terrorism, and I want you to stop being afraid on my behalf. Please start scaling back the official government war on terror. Please replace it with a smaller, more focused anti-terrorist police effort in keeping with the rule of law. Please stop overreacting. I understand that it will not be possible to stop all terrorist acts. I accept that. I am not afraid.”

This is good, important work to defeat terrorism.