Playing the China Card Wisely Is Obama’s Last Best Chance to Sell the Trans-Pacific Partnership

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the economic centerpiece of the Obama administration’s much ballyhooed “strategic pivot” to Asia, which – in 2009 – heralded U.S. intentions to extricate itself from the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan and to reassert its interests in the world’s fastest-growing region. After six years of negotiations, the comprehensive trade deal was completed last year and signed by its 12 charter members earlier this year. But the TPP must be ratified before it can take effect – and prospects for that happening in 2016 grow dimmer with each passing day.

One would assume TPP ratification a policy priority of President Obama. After all, he took office promising to restore some of the U.S. foreign policy credibility that had been notoriously squandered by his predecessor. If Congress fails to ratify the agreement before Christmas, Obama will leave office with American commercial and strategic positions weakened in the Asia-Pacific, and U.S. credibility further diminished globally.  The specter of that outcome would keep most presidents awake at night.

In Newsweek today, I put most of the blame for this precarious situation on a president who, throughout his tenure, has remained unwilling to challenge the guardians of his party’s anti-trade orthodoxy by making the case for trade liberalization generally, or the TPP specifically:

Superficially, one could blame election-year politics and a metastasizing popular antipathy toward trade agreements for the situation, but the original sin is the president’s lackluster effort to sell the TPP to his trade-skeptical party and the American public. In the administration’s division of labor, those tasked with negotiating the TPP kept their noses to the grindstone and brought back an agreement that reduces taxes and other protectionist impediments to trade…

San Francisco Body Camera Plan Botches Officer Viewing Compromise

The Police Commission in San Francisco recently voted 5-2 to approve a body worn camera (BWC) plan. The plan, which one commissioner described as a “travesty,” prohibits supervisors from viewing BWC videos in order to find policy violations. It also requires officers involved in a shooting or in-custody death to submit an “initial statement” before they review BWC footage. Whether officers should be allowed to view BWC footage before making a statement is one of the most pressing issues in body camera debates. Unfortunately, the San Francisco BWC plan does not adequately address this issue.

Your memory isn’t always reliable. While many of us are confident that we’re pretty good at remembering specific incidents, it turns out that even our memories of notable and historic events, such as 9/11, are hardly as well-formed and clear as we might hope.

The legality of an officer’s use of deadly force depends in large part on the reasonableness of what the officer believed at the time of the incident. For instance, whether an officer who shot someone reasonably feared for his life, or the lives of innocent bystanders, will be an important factor in determining whether the shooting was legal.

BWCs, like other cameras, don’t have fuzzy memories. What’s filmed by BWCs is stored and, absent tampering, won’t change. The same can’t be said of police officers’ memories. This is one of the factors that has prompted debate about whether police officers should be allowed to view BWC footage of a deadly use-of-force incidents before they file a report.

I and others have argued that police should not view BWC footage related to a deadly use-of-force incidents before filing a report. A policy that allows officers to view BWC footage before filing a report would allow officers an unfair chance to exculpate themselves of wrongdoing. Officers could search for justifications for use-of-force that didn’t occur to them while the incident in question was happening.

Others could argue that police officers, like all human beings, don’t have perfect memories and might not accurately remember important facts concerning a stressful incident under investigation. Rather than being seen as an honest lapse of memory, the omission of crucial facts in a report could be portrayed as an officer trying to avoid the consequences of poor behavior.

San Francisco’s body camera plan requires officers involved in a shooting or in-custody death to submit an “initial statement” before he reviews body camera footage.

At first glance, this policy seems like a decent compromise between the two positions I outlined above. Such a policy ensures that officers can view BWC footage, but only after providing a statement outlining what they remember about the incident under investigation.

However, the “initial statement” required by the recently approved San Francisco plan is explicitly required to be brief and resembles a collection of basic facts rather than an explanatory report:

The initial statement by the subject officer shall briefly summarize the actions that the officer was engaged in, the actions that required the use of force, and the officer’s response.

These initial statement requirements are too narrow. As Alan Schlosser, legal director for the American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California, said, officers should fill out a full report before viewing body camera footage:

When we said there should be an initial report, we didn’t mean there should be a brief report,” he said. “When we support an initial report, we meant there would be a full report and then the officer would see the video and then there would be a supplemental report, with the understanding that recollections change.

Police in San Francisco will be wearing BWCs in the not too distant future. With the current plan in place there is still room for improvement when it comes to using BWCs as tools for increased law enforcement accountability. If San Francisco’s police commissioners ever want to revisit their body camera plan they could do worse than taking inspiration from their neighbors across San Francisco Bay. In Oakland, officers involved in shootings cannot view body camera footage without first being interviewed and submitting a report.

 

The Supreme Court Misread Constitutional History Regarding “One Person, One Vote”

Two months ago, the Supreme Court ruled that states have leeway in determining how to draw their legislative districts, more specifically that they don’t have to equalize the number of voters per district to satisfy the constitutional principle of “one person, one vote.” The decision was really a “punt,” not resolving the tensions between “representational equality” and “voter equality”; it’ll take some future case after the next census to force the justices to face the issues left unresolved. 

Former Cato intern (and future legal associate) Tommy Berry and I have now published an essay in the Federalist Society Review explaining how the Court “shanked” that punt by misreading constitutional structure and application. Here’s a sample (footnotes omitted):

In Evenwel, the Court decided that it is acceptable for a state to ignore the distinction between voters and nonvoters when drawing legislative district lines. According to the Court, a state may declare that equality is simply providing representatives to equal groups of people, without distinction as to how many of those people will actually choose the representative. A state may use this constituent-focused view of equality because “[b]y ensuring that each representative is subject to requests and suggestions from the same number of constituents, total-population apportionment promotes equitable and effective representation.”

But ignoring the distinction between voters and nonvoters achieves a false picture of equality at the expense of producing far more serious inequalities. Rather than placing nonvoters and voters on anything approaching an equal political footing, it instead gives greater power to those voters who happen to live near more nonvoters, and less power to those who do not.

As we argued before the decision came down, the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment recognized that granting such extra voting power runs the risk of harming the very nonvoters to whom it ostensibly grants representation. This recognition manifested itself in the enactment of the Fourteenth Amendment’s Penalty Clause. In both ignoring that clause and oversimplifying the debates over the Fourteenth Amendment, the Court’s opinion paints an incomplete picture of constitutional history.

Read the whole thing. For more, see Tommy’s blogpost on our article, as well as our earlier criticism of Justice Ginsburg’s majority opinion for misreading the Federalist Papers.

Why Clinton Won’t Win the Foreign Policy Debate

Hillary Clinton clearly believes that she enjoys a decided advantage over Donald Trump when it comes to foreign policy. Her speech today in San Diego launched what will clearly be a sustained attack on Trump’s qualifications as commander-in-chief. Citing his support for torturing the families of terrorists, his loose talk about using nuclear weapons on ISIS, and his calls for walking away from NATO and other allies, Clinton argued that Trump’s ideas about foreign policy are “dangerously incoherent.” His main tools of global statecraft, she said, would include bragging, mocking, and composing nasty tweets. In short, Clinton’s central theme is that Trump is simply “not up to the job” of president and if elected, Trump would lead America down a “truly dark path.”

Though most of Clinton’s attacks by this point have already been well rehearsed, the account against Trump is nonetheless devastating. Or at least the attack would be devastating to some other candidate in some other election year. This year, however, things look very different.

The most recent Washington Post/ABC News survey found Americans almost evenly divided over whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would do a better job keeping the country safe, dealing with terrorism, and dealing with international trade. Can these numbers be real? Can almost half of the American public honestly prefer a man who clearly has given so little thought to international affairs over a woman who has traveled the world, served as a United States senator, and spent four years as Secretary of State? The surprising answer is yes.

There are three things keeping Clinton from winning the foreign policy debate.

The first dynamic fueling this situation is partisan polarization. As research has begun to make clear, the United States now suffers from an extreme case of “partyism.” Republicans and Democrats now dislike each other so much that they oppose each other instinctively regardless of the facts – witness how much Republicans still think President Obama is a Muslim. On the question of keeping the country safe, the Post/ABC survey found that 84% of Democrats think Clinton will do a better job but 83% of Republicans think Trump will do a better job. The fact that Trump commands such partisan loyalty despite his clear lack of knowledge and experience illustrates just how powerful a force partisan polarization has become in the United States. This alone will make it very difficult for Clinton’s (or anyone else’s) substantive arguments to gain any traction.

Elevated CO2 and Temperature Enhance the Grain Yield and Quality of Rice

Setting the stage for their study, Roy et al. (2015) write that rice is “one of the most important C3 species of cereal crops,” adding that it “generally responds favorably to elevated CO2.” However, they note that the actual response of rice crops to elevated CO2 and warming “is uncertain.” The team of five Indian scientists set out “to determine the effect of elevated CO2 and night time temperature on (1) biomass production, (2) grain yield and quality and (3) C [carbon], N [nitrogen] allocations in different parts of the rice crop in tropical dry season.”

The experiment they designed to achieve these objectives was carried out at the ICAR-Central Rice Research Institute in Cuttack, Odisha, India, using open-top-chambers in which rice (cv. Naveen) was grown in either control (ambient CO2 and ambient temperature), elevated CO2 (550 ppm, ambient temperature) or elevated CO2 and raised temperature (550 ppm and +2°C above ambient) conditions for three separate growing seasons.

In discussing their findings, Roy et al. write that the aboveground plant biomass, root biomass, grain yield, leaf area index and net C assimilation rates of the plants growing under elevated CO2 conditions all showed significant increases (32, 26, 22, 21, and 37 percent, respectively) over their ambient counter-parts. Each of these variables were also enhanced under elevated CO2 and increased temperature conditions over ambient CO2 and temperature, though to a slightly lesser degree than under elevated CO2 conditions alone. 

With respect to grain quality, the authors report there was no difference among the parameters they measured in any of treatments, with the exception of starch and amylose content, which were both significantly higher in the elevated CO2 and elevated CO2 plus elevated temperature treatments. The C and N grain yields were also both significantly increased in both of these treatments compared with control conditions.

The results of this study thus bode well for the future of rice production in India during the dry season. As the CO2 concentration of the air rises, yields will increase.  And if the temperature rises as models project, yields will still increase, though by not quite as much. These findings, coupled with the fact that the grain nutritional quality (as defined by an increase in amylose content) was enhanced by elevated CO2, suggest there is a bright future in store for rice in a carbon dioxide-enhanced atmosphere.

 

Reference

Roy, K.S., Bhattacharyya, P., Nayak, A.K., Sharma, S.G. and Uprety, D.C. 2015. Growth and nitrogen allocation of dry season tropical rice as a result of carbon dioxide fertilization and elevated night time temperature. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 103: 293-309.

Members of Congress Introduce Cato ‘Large HSAs’ Concept

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 29: (L-R) Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) speak at a press conference on Cuba at the U.S. Capitol January 29, 2015 in Washington, DC. Flake is introducing legislation with bipartisan support that would lift a longstanding ban on U.S. citizens traveling freely to Cuba. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA), and other members of Congress have introduced legislation based on the “Large HSAs” concept I first proposed here and developed herehereherehere, and here.

The “Health Savings Account Expansion Act” (H.R. 5324S. 2980) would expand the availability and benefits of tax-free health savings accounts (HSAs) in several ways. It would nearly triple existing HSA contribution limits from $3,400 for individuals and $6,750 for families to $9,000 and $18,000. It would allow tax-free HSA funds to purchase health insurance, over-the-counter medications, and direct primary care. It would eliminate the mandate that HSA holders purchase a government-designed high-deductible health plan. And it would repeal ObamaCare’s increase of the penalty on non-medical withdrawals. Americans for Tax Reform and FreedomWorks have endorsed the bill.

I’m sure I will have lots to say about Flake-Brat, but here are a few initial impressions.

  1. Flake-Brat would free workers from the government program we call employer-sponsored insurance—but only if that’s what workers want. The federal tax code currently tells the average worker with family coverage she can either surrender $13,000 of income to her employer and let her employer choose her health plan, or surrender a huge chunk of that money to the government by paying income and payroll taxes on it. The Flake-Brat bill would allow her to keep that money and either save it, use it to stay on her employer’s health plan, or use it to purchase better coverage somewhere else, all tax-free. The choice would belong to her, not to Congress or the IRS.
  2. Flake-Brat is a bigger tax cut than you’ve ever seen.  Large HSAs would be the largest-ever scaling back of the federal government’s role in health care. The Flake-Brat bill is effectively a $9 trillion tax cut. That’s how much money the current tax exclusion for employer-sponsored insurance will divert from workers to their employers over the next decade. Flake-Brat would return that money to the workers who earned it. Flake-Brat is thus an effective tax cut equal to all of the Reagan and Bush tax cuts combined. It is nine times the size of the tax cut associated with repealing ObamaCare.  Unlike health-insurance tax credits, Large HSAs involve no government spending and would not mandate that taxpayers purchase health insurance, as existing HSAs and health-insurance tax credits do. (The bill and its sponsors describe that requirement as a “mandate.”)
  3. Flake-Brat would make health care better, more affordable, and more secure. It would do so by dramatically reducing government’s influence over the health care sector. By shifting from employers to consumers nearly a quarter of the $3 trillion Americans spend annually on health care, Large HSAs would begin to make the health care sector and health policy respond to the needs of patients. Large HSAs are also less restrictive than existing HSA law or health-insurance tax credits. As a replacement for ObamaCare, Large HSAs would encourage innovative products like pre-existing conditions insurance that make coverage more affordable and secure.
  4. Flake-Brat shows Congress could create Large HSAs with or without repealing ObamaCare. Large HSAs are the most promising ObamaCare replacement plan to date, but Congress can create them before it repeals ObamaCare. The Flake-Brat bill would create Large HSAs even with ObamaCare still on the books. In fact, Flake-Brat would build support for repealing ObamaCare by exposing consumers to the full cost of its hidden taxes.
  5. Flake-Brat is a marker. The Flake-Brat bill defers consideration of a number of issues. All else equal, expanding tax breaks for HSA contributions would reduce federal revenues and increase federal deficits and debt. Like any proposal to level the playing field between employer-sponsored coverage and other coverage, the bill creates the potential for employer plans to unravel as (healthy) people choose better options. Were Congress to enact Flake-Brat with ObamaCare still on the books, there could be even more complicated interactions. The bill doesn’t totally level the playing field, either. Everyone would get an income-tax break, but only those with an employer who facilitates HSA contributions would get the payroll tax break. (Large HSAs can completely level the playing field with a simple tax credit that mimics that exclusion for such workers.) The authors don’t address these issues in the bill, or their supplemental materials. They will have to address them at some point. Fortunately, there are solutions. (For more on those solutions, see the “developed” links in the second paragraph.)

All in all, the Flake-Brat bill is a much-needed addition to the debate over the future of American health care.

Lessons from NYC’s Randomized Conditional Cash Transfer Program

The research organization MDRC recently released its comprehensive evaluation of Opportunity NYC- Family Rewards, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) pilot program with the goal of helping families break free of the cycle of poverty. This program is particularly notable because it is the first comprehensive CCT program in a developed country, and it was a large-scale randomized control trial. CCTs offer cash assistance, but only if certain conditions are met, in this case these conditions are concentrated in the three spheres of children’s education, preventive health care utilization and parents’ employment. There was no case management component to the program, the cash-based incentives were the only mechanism in place. The initiative had the twin goals of reducing current poverty (material hardship) and incentivizing these low-income families to invest in developing their human capital, which is important for their ability to attain a level of self-sufficient prosperity. After the conclusion of the three-year pilot program, while the program’s cash transfers produced some results in the first goal of reducing material hardship, as you might expect from a significant cash transfer to families with otherwise limited incomes, it failed to have much of an impact in its second goal related to the development of human capital. Family Rewards failed to produce any meaningful effects. There are caveats to what these findings mean in a broader sense, but they convey some of the limitations of transfers, and of antipoverty policies in general, in addressing the more complex and difficult aspects of poverty.

Six community-based organizations ran the Family Rewards pilot in six of the city’s communities with the highest levels of poverty, with the program running for three years concluding in August 2010. MDRC split roughly 4,800 families with 11,000 children into treatment and control groups, and analyzed the effects of the CCT program on a range of different metrics by comparing the groups at two and six years after the program began. Family Rewards included 22 different rewards tide to specific activities like taking the PSATs, attending parent-teacher conferences, and sustaining full-time work.

Throughout the three years of the program, participating families received an average of over $8,700 with a majority of those families receiving at least $7,000 and the top quintile receiving more than $13,000 in cash transfers. These substantial cash transfers reduced the share of families in poverty by 12 percentage points (from a baseline of 68 percent in poverty). There were associated reductions in measures of material hardship like the proportion of families dealing with food insufficiency or inability to pay rent, relative to the control group. These gains were concentrated among families living in severe poverty, while the reductions in hardships were “small and statistically insignificant among those whose poverty was not as severe at the time they began the program.”