Topic: Government and Politics

A Party of Small Government No More

By
Stephen Slivinski

In my book, Buck Wild: How Republicans Broke the Bank and Became the Party of Big Government, I argue that many voters no longer see the GOP as the party of small government. 

Now a new poll from the Club for Growth provides more quantitative backing to my narrative. It’s based on a survey taken in 15 congressional districts. Each of the districts was represented by an incumbent Republicans and each district was generally considered among the most competitive for the GOP this year. Neither were the Democratic or Republican candidates on the ballot in these districts suffering from a scandal that touched them directly.

Two damning results:

Q: “Now tell me whether you think the following phrase better describes the Republicans or the Democrats in Washington: “The Party of Big Government”

Republicans: 39.3%
Democrats: 27.9%
Both: 16.3%
Neither: 9.3%
Don’t know/Refused: 7.4%

Q: Would you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The Republicans used to be the party of economic growth, fiscal discipline, and limited government, but in recent years, too many Republicans in Washington have become just like the big spenders that they used to oppose.”

Agree: 65.8%
Disagree: 26.4%
Don’t know/Refused: 7.9%

Topics: 
General, Government and Politics, Tax and Budget Policy

Were Ousted Republicans Liberals or Conservatives?

By
Chris Edwards

Six Republicans in the Senate and 20 in the House were knocked off this election. In addition, eight open seats went to the Dems. (About 10 contests remain undecided.)

Were the the Republican losers economic conservatives or liberals?

My intern, Emmanuel Caudillo, compiled the scores calculated by National Journal for 2003 and 2004 on the economic conservative voting records of the ousted members. The scores are percentiles showing members relative to other members in the chambers. A score of 100 would indicate the most economically conservative voting record.

Here are the National Journal scores for the losers:

House Loser

2003

2004

Avg.
Jim Leach (IA 2)           46           49           48
Sue Kelly (NY 19)           50           48           49
Nancy Johnson (CT 5)           51           53           52
John Sweeney (NY 20)           53           52           53
Curt Weldon (PA 7)           55           54           55
Charles Bass (NH 2)           60           53           57
Jeb Bradley (NH 1)           60           55           58
John Hostettler (IN 8 )           51           64           58
Gil Gutknecht (MN 1)           49           70           60
Anne Northup (KY 3)           73           62           68
Charles Taylor (NC 11)           67           68           68
Jim Ryun (KS 2)           62           84           73
Clay Shaw (FL 22)           71           80           76
Melissa Hart (PA 4)           84           70           77
Don Sherwood (PA 10)           79           78           79
Chris Chocola (IN 2)           84           88           86
J.D. Hayworth (AZ 5)           91           88           90
Richard Pombo (CA 11)           91           92           92
Michael Fitzpatrick (PA 8 ) elected in 2004  
Mike Sodrel (IN 9) elected in 2004  
       
Open House Seats that Changed

2003

2004

Avg.
Sherwood Boehlert (NY 24)           47           49           48
Mark Green (WI 8 )           57           61           59
Jim Nussle (IA 1)           64           62           63
Bob Ney (OH 18 )           64           63           64
Mark Foley (FL 16)           71           65           68
Jim Kolbe (AZ 8 )           84           76           80
Bob Beauprez (CO 7)           91           88           90
Tom Delay (TX 22)           91           93           92
       
Senate Losers

2003

2004

Average
Lincoln Chafee (RI)           47           47           47
Mike DeWine (OH)           61           53           57
Jim Talent (MO)           62           58           60
George Allen (VA)           82           65           74
Rick Santorum (PA)           82           75           79
Conrad Burns (MT)           82           91           87

Conclusion: The great majority of losing Republicans were economic moderates or liberals. Few of the losers were above the 70th percentile in their votes on economic issues.

Topics: 
Government and Politics, Tax and Budget Policy

Jeff Flake, Take (Another) Bow!

By
Sallie James

Further to Tom’s post on Monday, our friend Jeff Flake (R–AZ) has written an excellent op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required) on the need for Republicans to apologize for betraying their small-government principles. Mr. Flake points to the farm bill, up for renewal next year, as the best opportunity to ” hew back to our [i.e., Republicans’] first principles.”

Yes, please. And may I propose the dairy policy, one of the most egregious examples of Soviet-style intervention, as one of the first to be reformed? Here’s a study I released yesterday on that very topic.

Bravo, Mr. Flake. I wish you the best of luck.

Topics: 
Cato Publications, General, Government and Politics, International Economics and Development, Tax and Budget Policy, Trade and Immigration

Voters ♥ Gridlock

By
Stephen Slivinski

An interesting poll from Rasmussen Reports:  A majority of voters (52%) like divided government.  Only thirty percent think single-party control is preferable.

Apparently partisan affiliation had something to do with the result.  Perhaps not surprisingly, Democrats favored divided government by sixty percent.  However, it’s worth noting that not even half (47%) of Republican respondents favored one-party control.

Topics: 
General, Government and Politics

Did Voters Throw the Bums Out?

By
Brandon Arnold

As we all know by now, Democrats have taken control of the House and (almost certainly) the Senate.  So was this a watershed election? 

Sure, it’s extremely rare for both houses of Congress to change hands in a single election and there’s quite a bit of buzz about a few high-profile incumbents who lost their jobs.

But now that the dust is almost settled, it looks like we will welcome only about 60 new faces to Capitol Hill.  And while there are a few races still too close to call, incumbents have been extremely successful in winning reelection. 

Consider that there were 435 races in the House and Senate with an incumbent trying to retain his or her seat.  Only 26 – 6% – of challengers in these races have won.  That’s pretty low for a “throw the bums out” election.  Pending the outcome of three or four yet-to-be-determined races, this year’s 94% incumbent reelection rate appears to be slightly higher than the 90% rate of 1994.

I should note that this figure doesn’t include the three incumbents who were defeated earlier this year in a primary election.  But even one casualty of his primary switched his party registration and managed to hold onto his seat.

The moral of the story: if you’re an incumbent member of Congress and you want to stay in office, there’s a pretty good chance you will be successful.  Just don’t forget to send ‘thank you’ cards to Senators McCain, Feingold, and all the gerrymandering folks who helped make your reelection possible.

Topics: 
General, Government and Politics

Nurse Ratched at the Polls

By
Gene Healy

Former Catoite Amy Phillips has a neat rundown of “Nanny-State” ballot initiatives in the several states.  The war on smoking remains popular, with smoking bans passing in Arizona, Nevada, and Ohio–but, happily, there’s some support for “cut and run” in the war on marijuana, with liberalization measures apparently passing in Arkansas, several California cities, Massachusetts, and one Montana county–though failing in Colorado, Nevada, and South Dakota.

In Massachusetts, “56 percent of voters rejected a measure to allow grocery stores to sell wine,” due to the efforts of a “Bootlegger/Baptist” coalition in which liquor store owners funded a campaign designed to stoke fears of increased teen drinking.  But in Oklahoma, 53 percent of voters, recognizing that there’s no better day of the year for heavy drinking, voted ”to repeal a ban on the sale of alcohol on Election Day.”    

Topics: 
General, Government and Politics

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