Topic: Government and Politics

Fixing the Revenue-Estimating Process on Capitol Hill

The (hopefully) much anticipated final installment in the video series on the Laffer Curve has been released. This new video discusses the revenue-estimating process, and it builds upon the discussion of theory in Part I and evidence in Part II.

You will notice that the video clearly concludes that “dynamic scoring” is preferable to “static scoring,” but it also explains that there are significant challenges in properly estimating revenue feedback when tax rates are changed. That is why a key point is the need for transparency. If the Joint Committee on Taxation no longer operated in secrecy, it would be possible for experts to engage in a productive debate on how to best measure the revenue effects of various tax policies.

Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or feedback. I also will be narrating the Center for Freedom and Prosperity’s next two videos, which will discuss the global flat tax revolution and the flat tax v. national sales tax debate. Stay tuned.

The Candidates and the Libertarian Vote

Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch of Reason have a great cover story in Politics, the new and livelier update of Campaigns and Elections magazine.  Titled “Tuned Out,” the article says that “politics is a lagging indicator of American society,” so this year’s presidential candidates are “channeling shopworn agendas and tired identities to a body politic desperate for a new political era.”

They predict that today’s individualist, consumer-driven culture will eventually produce a politics to match. “Much of this new activity will be explicitly libertarian, since the decentralization of control and individual empowerment is so deeply embedded in Internet technology and culture…. The Long Tail future of politics just as surely belongs to the president and party that figures out the secret to success is giving away power by letting the voter decide more of what matters.”

We can only hope. The cover illustration for the article, showing a Fountainhead-reading, South Park-watching young voter impervious to the appeals of the two old parties, reminded me of this recent “Zippy the Pinhead” cartoon, which also contrasted two big-government parties with leave-me-alone independents (click for larger version):

For more on libertarian voters, go here and here.

Boiling the Voter-ID Teapot

Last week, former Federal Election Commissioner Hans A. von Spakovsky published a Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum entitled Stolen Identities, Stolen Votes: A Case Study in Voter Impersonation. Contrary to claims made by prominent newspapers and attorneys, he argues, in-person voting fraud is a real problem.

The evidence he provides is a vote fraud ring that began operating in 1968 and that was broken up more than 25 years ago in 1982. Impersonation fraud can be committed at polling places, and a voter-ID requirement would make it a little harder, but a quarter-century-old case is hardly evidence of a significant problem.

How states secure their voting processes should turn on how they structure their voting processes. States might choose a voter ID requirement if they can do so in a way that balances security against access, convenience, and privacy. Absentee balloting is generally a far greater threat to the security of elections than weak or non-existent ID requirements at polling places.

The thing that matters most is avoiding a uniform national voter ID requirement. I wrote about this in my TechKnowledge piece Voter ID: A Tempest in a Teapot That Could Burn Us All: “To ensure that American voters enjoy their franchise in a free country, clumsy voter ID rules should be avoided. A national voter ID system should be taken off the table entirely.”

The Remarkable Moral Deafness of Rep. Rohrabacher

Walter Pincus has a writeup today of a House hearing last Tuesday on what we should be doing about Iraqi refugees. Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) remarked on the failure of the administration to help Iraqis who have worked for the Coalition as translators:

“I can’t remember President Bush speaking about this refugee crisis or the need for the United States to respond aggressively to it except in passing,” Rep. Gary L. Ackerman (D-N.Y.) said.

As for the Iraqi translators, some 500 more of whom have signed up to seek visas, Ackerman said, “I don’t understand why the administration isn’t processing them … unless that was never their intention and all along they were willing to talk a good game but leave these people high and dry.”

Then there’s the Republican position, as presented by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.):

“They’re wonderful people who’d like to live here, especially the ones who have helped us, but the last thing we want to do is to have people who are friendly to democracy … moving here in large numbers at a time when they’re needed to build a new, thriving Iraq.”

So Rep. Rohrabacher knows better than these Arabic-speaking, living-in-Iraq Iraqis what’s best for them. And, as it happens, what’s best for them is to stay in the hellish maelstrom of violence that is Iraq, despite the stated views of these folks themselves. Somehow the foolish idea has gotten into their heads that they’re owed something for having put their lives on the line, day in and day out, to assist the Coalition. In fairness to Rep. Rohrabacher, he’s offering them something: the right to help salvage the grandiose political science theories of men like Rohrabacher. And for that, we should be sure they’ll be eternally grateful.

My colleague Malou Innocent had a piece on the plight of Iraqis who’ve aided the Coalition back in December. Give it a read and see if Rohrabacher’s position doesn’t become all the more uncomfortable.

It’s My Way or No Highway

Congressional earmarks have received a lot of media attention lately, despite the fact that they make up only a small percentage of the overall budget.

Even advocates of limited government sometimes bemoan the disproportionate focus on earmarks and the relative lack of attention paid to larger spending items, like entitlement programs.

But the full story on earmarks isn’t simply their direct impact on the budget. Earmarks are also used by Congressional leadership to raise the public profile of incumbents in tough reelection fights, entice members to vote for controversial bills, and enforce party discipline.

The latter was on display yesterday when, as The Hill notes, the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Rep. David Obey (D-WI), “canceled meetings with a New Orleans delegation because a Louisiana lawmaker had defied party leadership on a procedural vote the night before.”

In canceling the meeting, Obey was “punishing” Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) by refusing to allow his constituents to make a pitch for their earmark wish list to the House’s chief appropriator. More broadly, Obey sent a clear message to other lawmakers: recalcitrance will jeopardize your earmarks.

Using taxpayer funds to enforce party discipline is a blatant misuse of taxpayer dollars. Further, this practice undercuts a chief argument of earmark defenders who claim that the process is an essential means to fast-track funds to critical local projects, like roads and infrastructure. Unless, of course, truly critical projects exist only in the districts of loyal partisans.

In other earmark news, yesterday the Senate overwhelmingly rejected a one-year moratorium on earmarks. Hardly a surprise.

Obama Finds Juche ‘Intriguing’

Another (fictitious) dispatch from my anonymous correspondent on the campaign trail:

LANCASTER, Pa. — Sen. Barack Obama told a crowd of enthusiastic supporters here that the North Korean concept of “Juche,” its stated policy of complete economic and social independence and isolation, is “intriguing” and worthy of further study as a possible antidote to the economic malaise of the state in recent years.

The comment on Juche (pronounced “joo-CHEH”) came as a response to a question from a voter who expressed doubt that a repeal of NAFTA would help the region’s economy. Obama’s remark took the campaign’s message of economic nationalism and support for the weakened manufacturing sectors of the upper Midwest well beyond the rhetoric espoused by his Democratic primary opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

“Trade is not helping the Pennsylvania economy get back its jobs,” Obama told the questioner. “And it may be time to quit tinkering with a system that stopped working a long time ago and get back to the basics.”

“Now we’re talking!” enthused Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a D.C. think tank. “Someone finally had the guts to go all the way. Hallelujah!”

A spokesperson for the Obama campaign stressed that the senator was not articulating an official policy position but merely discussing aloud an idea that the campaign’s economic advisers have been contemplating for some time.

Obama said that his one reservation with such an economic system is that North Korea’s economy has struggled a bit in recent years. He attributed those struggles more to execution than policy, along with a rash of bad weather. Autarkic economic self-reliance, he averred, would provide a needed tonic to the U.S. economy and work especially well in the recession-plagued Midwest.

CNN broadcaster Lou Dobbs, a noted critic of U.S. trade policy in recent years, extended cautious praise for Obama’s words. “American economic woes are far more severe than North Korea’s, and we need a stronger dose of Juche than what Pyongyang employs. Pennsylvania would benefit little from a system that merely closes off imports from other countries. To truly help, we need to allow the state to ban imports from other states as well. Obama’s comments were a little timorous for me and revealed how out of touch he and the rest of the D.C. elites really are.”

Obama’s audience seemed quite receptive to the idea. “I’ve never heard of Juche before, but when he explained it a bit I thought it made perfect sense,” said Thaddeus Verhoff, an unemployed sheet welder from nearby Mt. Joy.

Other analysts hailed the proposal as a deft political move. “Rather than continuing to take baby steps around each other, Obama has jumped ahead to the inevitable end point of the debate without giving Senator Clinton any room to get to his left,” said John Cavanaugh, a columnist at Roll Call. “All she can do now is criticize him for being too protectionist, which doesn’t fly in Democratic circles.”

The Clinton team has yet to formally respond to Obama’s comments. A campaign spokesperson did indicate to reporters that Clinton would “stoop to no one” in her defense of state economic sovereignty.