Topic: Foreign Policy and National Security

To Hell With the Facts, We’re Still in This Thing!

Readers will no doubt be relieved that the new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has done nothing to dampen literary-critic-cum-Giuliani-foreign-policy-adviser Norman Podhoretz’s enthusiasm for starting another Middle Eastern war.

The Munich analogy and Winston Churchill make prominent appearances. No word, per Podhoretz’s prior comments on what went wrong after Vietnam, on whether gay people are to blame for the NIE.

NATO’s New Troubles

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is beginning to fracture. Its members have taken on burdens that have proved more difficult than expected, and increasingly, they are failing to meet the challenges confronting them. In “Cracks in the Foundation: NATO’s New Troubles,” Cato scholar Stanley Kober argues that the future of the alliance is unclear and the United States should begin discussions with our allies about what a post-NATO world would look like.

It’s Not My Fault They’re Kissing

My friend Blake Hounshell (he’s actually a friend, not “my friend” in the Washington sense) has a post up at FP Passport observing President Bush’s and Saudi dictator King Abdullah’s latest canoodling. In that post, Blake argues that

if you’re a gasoline-consuming American, you’re deeply complicit in this marriage, too. So laugh all you want at Bush, but he kisses Saudi cheek for thee—just as U.S. presidents have done for decades.

To which I would respond “baloney!” There’s nothing about the fact that we–or Europe, or China, or Japan–consume oil that mandates that we play kissy-poo with Abdullah or anybody else. There are a few theories why we would want to kiss up to the Saudis, and none of them hold water. The first is that the Saudis, who control 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves, make production decisions based on political relationships rather than economic considerations, and therefore when we kiss up to them, we increase the likelihood that they’ll make production decisions that are in our interests (and in contravention of their own). Like now, for example, the president is pleading that OPEC members increase production so as to tamp down the price of gasoline in the U.S.

As my colleague Jerry Taylor is wont to point out, however, “no amount of ‘get tough’ rhetoric or ‘pretty please’ diplomacy has ever affected OPEC production decisions, despite what American politicians would have you believe.” So that theory needs reworking.

There’s also the belief that we need to keep a close relationship with the Saudis to shore up our position in the region and resume the pursuit of our *ahem* traditional goal in the region of “promoting stability.” But this theory, too, leaves a lot to be desired. Our traditional posture in the Middle East has essentially amounted to a transfer payment from U.S. taxpayers to the Saudi Royal Family and the oil companies it runs. (Kuwait and the GCC countries, too.) Essentially we cover a substantial amount of the cost that it takes to defend these countries from prospective predators. But one has to ask “What would the Arabs do in the absence of an American security commitment?” 75% of the Saudi government’s revenue comes from oil. 45% of the country’s GDP comes from oil. Are we to assume that, absent a U.S. security commitment, the Saudi royal family is just going to cower in a defensive crouch and leave that money on the table for any rogue actor in the region to swoop in and take? Seems unlikely. The royal family seems much more interested in preserving itself and expanding its wealth than that.

To the contrary, it seems more likely that they would spend more, and get more serious about defending themselves from outside threats. Now, one could make the argument at this point that the Arabs in recent years have not proved themselves to be particularly formidable opponents on the battlefield, which is persuasive to a point. But even if, say, Iran made the remarkably rash move of launching a war against Saudi Arabia, Saudi’s defense budget dwarfs Iran’s and Saudi’s military technology is decades ahead of Iran’s. Even if they were to begin losing a conventional conflict against (hypothetically, again) Iran, standoff forces like long-range U.S. bombers could zoom in to restore the status quo ante without batting an eyelash.

So I’m left wondering why, exactly, it’s American gasoline consumers who are forcing U.S. presidents to suck up to Abdullah and the Saudi Royal Family. Any theories are hereby welcomed. In the meantime, please do give a read to Eugene Gholz’s and Daryl Press’s Policy Analysis titled “Energy Alarmism: The Myths that Make Americans Worry about Oil” for much more detail, and data that informed my arguments above.

Irrational Voters

Analyzing exit polls from last week’s New Hampshire primary, E.J. Dionne observes in today’s Washington Post that “an astonishing 42 percent of McCain’s voters disapproved of the Iraq war”

Maybe Bryan Caplan is onto something?

On a related note, Sen. McCain boasts of his fiscal conservatism, and one of his most reliable applause lines on the campaign trail comes from his strident criticism of wasteful government spending. His favorite example is the infamous “bridge to nowhere” in Alaska, one of thousands of earmarks tucked into the 2006 transportation bill. As McCain tells it, the bridge would have cost $233 million to build and would have served about 50 people. (David Boaz spelled out the gory details here. There were actually going to be two bridges costing a total of $454 million. In September 2007, Alaska officials dropped plans to build the bridge, but kept the money.)

To take nothing away from that particularly egregious misuse of taxpayer funds, it is worth noting that the war in Iraq is costing at least $10 billion a month, with some estimates placing the total costs closer to $12 or $13 billion. In other words, in one month’s time, we are spending the equivalent of 42 $233 million bridges. I doubt that we need that many bridges, and I’d much prefer that they be paid for by user-fees, but presumably some of these would go to somewhere?

The voters who oppose the Iraq war but who support the leading advocate for the war seem to be saying that fiscal conservatism stops at the water’s edge. Then again, it could just be cognitive dissonance.

Data Security for Me But Not for Thee

At his press conference announcing the REAL ID Act last week, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said:

We are not going to have a national database. REAL ID does not require that states start to collect additional information from applicants that they have not already created. We are not going to wind up making this information available willy-nilly. In fact, the steps we are taking under REAL ID will enhance and protect privacy rather than degrade and impair privacy.

…[A]mong the things we’re doing under REAL ID is requiring that state motor vehicle agencies have in place background checks and security plans for their databases at – in terms of the motor vehicle information. Traditionally, again and again we have seen corruption at motor vehicle agencies leading to people improperly disseminating personal information. These security plans and these background checks will actually minimize the risk that employees will improperly take that information and disseminate it.

Meanwhile, Section 508 of the Court Security Improvement Act of 2007, signed into law by President Bush last week, allows federal judges and Supreme Court Justices to withhold their addresses from the REAL ID database system, giving the addresses of their courts instead.

The federal judiciary evidently doesn’t trust Secretary Chertoff’s assurances.