Cato Scholar Comments on the New Speaker of the Iranian Parliament

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Justin Logan, associate director of foreign policy studiesjlogan@cato.org:

Ali Larijani's ascension to the position of speaker of the majlis represents one change in the political leadership of Iran. More changes are still to come. This time next year, Iranians will hold a presidential election, albeit within Iran's constrained political space. Although some U.S. analysts long derided the idea that there was any difference among Iran's leadership, it became clear that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a significantly more pernicious force than was his predecessor, the reformist Mohammed Khatami. With Ahmadinejad now having driven the Iranian economy into the ground, it appears likely that he could face challenges in the upcoming presidential election.

Beyond the presidency, the more important position of Supreme Leader will change hands eventually, and probably sooner rather than later. All of these changes could bear on U.S.-Iranian relations, for better or worse. To the extent that the threat environment in Iran is viewed as high, it is more likely that Iranians will select hardline leaders. If the temperature should be decreased, there is a greater likelihood that the worst of the Iranian leadership will find itself out of power. This is only one reason among many that U.S. leaders should calm down the rhetoric on Iran and make clear that talks—without preconditions—are an option.

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