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Special Two-Day Conference

January 12–13, 2009 • 8:00 a.m. – 6:15 p.m. • F.A. Hayek Auditorium

Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20001

| Conference Schedule | Registration |

With a new administration in the White House, January 2009 will be the starting point for a new approach to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. This conference presents solid, immensely practical analyses of strategic counterterrorism policies based on the lessons and experiences of the past eight years and earlier, and on what proven strategies will yield the most beneficial results for the United States. In addition, the conference focuses on defining realistic objectives and allocating military, federal and state government expenditures according to these goals. To accomplish this, an outstanding group of national and global experts has been assembled to share their insights, accomplishments, and strategic recommendations for the coming administration.

Due to enormous demand we are unable to accept any further registrations. However, to accommodate the public interest in this Conference, we will be Webcasting the event live. We hope you will choose to attend other public programs we will be offering through the year.

Conference Schedule

Monday, January 12

8:00 - 9:00 a.m.	Registration and Continental Breakfast
9:00 - 10:30 a.m.	Panel I: How Overreaction and Misdirection Play into the Terrorism Strategy Terrorism seeks to weaken strong powers like the United States by goading them to overreact and waste their own blood and treasure, give sympathy and recruiting gains to terrorists, and come loose from their ideological moorings. Beyond avoiding war and misdirected homeland security efforts, counterterrorism strategy requires some subtle awareness of the different ways a victim state’s actions can play into terrorists’ hands. Countering the strategic logic of terrorism will require the new administration to adopt some very disciplined responses and deny superficially appealing impulses toward overreaction. Jim Harper, Director of Information Policy Studies, Cato Institute   Paddy Hillyard, Professor of Sociology, Queen’s University, Belfast   Michael German, Policy Counsel, ACLU   Robert Hutchings, Diplomat in Residence, Princeton University   Chair: Christopher Preble, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute Watch Panel I in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel I (MP3)
10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.	Panel II: Terrorism’s Causes: Grievances, Goals, or Gang Membership Much effort has gone into discovering terrorism’s causes, but the roots are as diverse as the groups that adopt terrorism as a tactic.  Terrorists are not homogenous from place to place, or even within organizations.  Some may regard themselves as geopolitical actors with articulated grievances, and others may be disaffected youth drawn to a thrill-kill cult.  Understanding all the motivations that animate terrorists can help to frame a proactive and comprehensive counterterrorism strategy. Mia Bloom, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, University of Georgia   James Forest, Director of Terrorism Studies and Associate Professor, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, US Military Academy   Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago  Max Abrahms, Predoctoral Fellow, Stanford University Chair: Walter Reich, Yitzhak Rabin Memorial Professor of International Affairs, Ethics and Human Behavior, George Washington University   Watch Panel II in Real Video Watch Panel II in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel II (MP3)
12:15 - 1:00 p.m.	Lunch
1:15 - 1:45 p.m.	Keynote Address Steve Coll President and CEO, New America Foundation, and author of Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (2004), and The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century (2008).   Watch the Keynote Address Watch the Keynote Address in Real Video Download a Podcast of the Keynote Address (MP3)
1:45 - 3:15 p.m.	Panel III: Terrorist Groups: A Status Report Following more than seven years of enormous pressure brought to bear on al Qaeda and similar groups after the 9/11 attacks, it is important to assess its status, and the status of other terrorist groups.  While some networks and groups have suffered serious setbacks, they have also been tenacious.  Meanwhile, other groups and networks may have formed. How has al Qaeda central evolved since 9/11? What role do self-starters play? And how have other terrorist organizations adapted their operations to circumvent counterterrorism measures? Andrew Mack, Director, Human Security Report Project, Simon Fraser University Marc Sageman, Principal, Sageman Consulting, LLC Audrey Kurth Cronin, Professor, National War College Chair: Christopher Preble, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute Watch Panel III Watch Panel III in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel III (MP3)
3:30 - 5:00 p.m.	Panel IV: Assessing Terrorists’ Capability to use Weapons of Mass Destruction According to most analysts, the greatest national security threat Americans face comes from terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction. Yet most analysis of such threats tends towards worst-case scenario creation rather than careful net assessment of terrorist’s capability to employ these weapons. How do we judge the odds of these attacks? What are the policy implications of this analysis? John Mueller, Professor of Political Science, Ohio State University Randall Larsen, National Security Advisor, Center for Biosecurity—UPMC Milton Leitenberg, Senior Research Scholar, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland Jim Walsh, Principal Research Scientist, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Chair: Benjamin Friedman, Research Fellow, Cato Institute Watch Panel IV Watch Panel IV in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel IV (MP3)
5:30 - 6:15 p.m.	Reception

Tuesday, January 13

8:00 - 9:00 a.m.	Continental Breakfast
9:00 - 10:30 a.m.	Panel V: Domestic Security: Risk Management and Cost-Benefit Analysis The cost of terrorism comes largely from the government’s response to it. Risk-based security policies attempt to weigh the risk of terrorism against the risk of the policies designed to confront it. Is it possible to build such considerations into the institutional design of our domestic security bureaucracy? What changes are needed in the way we make and budget for homeland security policy to make it risk-based?  What can we learn from the Department of Defense and regulatory agencies? James Lewis, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies   Jeremy Shapiro, Fellow and Director of Research, Brookings Institution   Bruce Schneier, Chief Security Technology Officer, BT Counterpane   Cindy Williams, Principal Research Scientist, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology   Chair: Benjamin Friedman, Research Fellow, Cato Institute Watch Panel V Watch Panel V in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel V (MP3)
10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.	Panel VI: Military Force: Proactive Counterterrorism or Provocation? President George W. Bush launched two major military operations—in Afghanistan and Iraq—in the name of combating terrorism, but many critics declared the war in Iraq to have been a dangerous distraction from the fight against al Qaeda. Although the Bush administration achieved some of its greatest successes in operations that did not involve the use of conventional military power, the Iraq war largely confirmed the terrorists’ narrative that the United States is determined to occupy Muslim lands. These widespread beliefs are likely to cast a pall over U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the next administration. This panel will examine the role that military force should play in counterterrorism strategy, and explore the risks that a military response could be counterproductive. Steven Simon, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations  Jim Carafano, Assistant Director, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, Heritage Foundation  Dan Byman, Associate Professor, Director of Center for Peace and Security Studies,  Georgetown University  Chair: Paul Pillar, Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Watch Panel VI Watch Panel VI in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel VI (MP3)
12:15 - 1:00 p.m.	Lunch
1:15 - 1:45 p.m.	Keynote Address Paul Slovic A founder and President of Decision Research, concentrating on the study of human judgment, decision making, and risk analysis.  Past President of the Society for Risk Analysis; recipient of the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association, and of an Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science. Watch the Keynote Address Watch the Keynote Address in Real Video Download a Podcast of the Keynote Address (MP3)
1:45 - 3:15 p.m.	Panel VII: Responsibility for Protection: Federal, State, Local, Private, and Personal Though the federal government has principle responsibility for domestic security, what is true of all politics is true of terrorism: All attacks are local.  Most day-to-day security measures are local. The federal government is uniquely suited for some counterterrorism work, starting with intelligence collection and dissemination, but state and local officials are often better positioned to weigh investment in counterterrorism against competing demands. Private actors often have incentive to pay for their own security, especially when liability is correctly assigned. The panel will discuss what division of labor among the national government, states, localities, and the private sector will best provide domestic security in the most cost-effective ways. Matt Mayer, Chief Executive Officer and President, Provisum Strategies   Edward Flynn, Chief of Police, Milwaukee Police Department   Robert Ross, Chief, Risk Sciences Branch, Special Programs Division, Department of Homeland Security   Chair: Veronique de Rugy, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University Watch Panel VII Watch Panel VII in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel VII (MP3)
3:30 - 5:00 p.m.	Panel VIII: Communicating about Terrorism and Terrorist Attacks With fear acting as a “force multiplier” in the terrorism strategy, careful communications are an essential part of strategic counterterrorism.  The way that political leaders and the media talk about terrorism, and how they might communicate with the public in the event of a terrorist attack, can have a tremendous effect on whether terrorism “succeeds” or fails.  What are the messages, words, and media strategies that the new administration should incorporate into its communications strategy to secure the country against fear and overreaction? William Burns, Research Scientist, Decision Research   Shaun Waterman, Homeland and National Security Editor, United Press International   Jeff Eller, President and CEO Public Strategies, Inc.   Ben Goddard, Partner, Executive Creative Director, GCSA Chair: Jim Harper, Director of Information Policy Studies, Cato Institute Watch Panel VIII in Real Video Download a Podcast of Panel VIII (MP3)
5:30 - 6:15 p.m.	Reception

| Conference Schedule | Registration |