Jack Goldstone, who will speak Monday at a Cato Forum, “Civil Resistance and Revolution in the Arab World,” has two interesting articles published today in Foreign Affairs and the Washington Post.
In the Post, Goldstone, who is the Hazel Professor and director of the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, suggests that China’s rapid economic growth is going to slow down. In Foreign Affairs, more relevantly for Monday’s forum, his topic is “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011” (reg. req.). The magazine’s summary:
Revolutions rarely succeed, writes one of the world’s leading experts on the subject — except for revolutions against corrupt and personalist “sultanistic” regimes. This helps explain why Tunisia’s Ben Ali and Egypt’s Mubarak fell — and also why some other governments in the region will prove more resilient.
At the Cato Forum — 4:00 p.m. Monday — Goldstone will join Peter Ackerman to discuss similar questions:
What explains the swift collapse of what were considered some of the most stable regimes in the Arab world? Drawing on scholarship and his Center’s experience in supporting pro-democracy activists in Egypt and around the world, Peter Ackerman will describe factors — such as strategy and careful planning — that are common to successful civil resistance movements. According to Ackerman, nonviolent campaigns have a better record at bringing down dictators than violent confrontations. Jack Goldstone will describe the conditions that give rise to revolutions, highlight the vulnerabilities of “sultanistic” dictatorships, and identify which Middle Eastern regimes are most likely to retain power.