Will Growing Government Turn America into a European Welfare State?

If left on auto-pilot, government spending is going to consume larger and larger shares of America’s economic output. But many people already know about this entitlement-driven crisis. What is less well known is that the tax burden is scheduled to rise significantly as well. In part, this is because the Bush tax cuts are scheduled to disappear at the end of 2010 and the AMT is projected to trap more taxpayers. But the biggest factor is that economic growth leads to “real bracket creep,” meaning more people will face higher tax rates because of rising income levels. Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute warns that America is at risk of becoming like France if steps are not taken to reduce the tax burden and dramatically curtail the growth of spending:

The U.S. has consistently outgrown its European allies for many years. There is little dispute among economists that the U.S.’s big advantage is its relatively small government. Federal government outlays take up about 20 percent of U.S. gross domestic product; in France, it’s almost 55 percent. …The latest budgetary maneuverings in the U.S. have virtually guaranteed that a good bit of that advantage will disappear, at least if Democrats remain in power. The current laws, as written, have put the U.S. on the road to France. The primary culprit is our programs for retirees. According to the latest long-run outlook of the Congressional Budget Office, government spending may take up fully 50 percent of GDP by 2050. Yet revenue will increase tremendously over the same time period. Revenue relative to GDP, currently a smidgen more than 18 percent, will climb to 23.7 percent by 2050 and extrapolate out to a whopping 27.5 percent by 2075. A spending binge is coming, and a good chunk of the revenue needed to pay for it is coming as well. The bad news for fans of small government is this: Even if spending were reined in enough to keep it equal to revenue, the size of the government will increase by about 50 percent in the coming decades.