Topic: Energy and Environment

You Ought to Have A Look: Global Warming Will Make the Earth Uninhabitable and Other Cli-Fi Funnies

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

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A favorite global warming chesnut is that human-caused climate change will make the planet uninhabitable for Homo sapiens (that’s us). The latest iteration of this cli-fi classic appears in this week’s New York Times’ coverage of the U.N. climate talks taking place in Lima, Peru (talks that are destined to fail, as we point out here).

Back in September, The World Health Organization (WHO) released a study claiming that global warming as a result of our pernicious economic activity will lead to a quarter million extra deaths each year during 2030 to 2050.  Yup, starting a mere 15 years from today. Holy cats!

That raised the antennae of Indur M. Goklany, a science and technical policy analyst who studies humanity’s well-being and the impact of environmental change upon it. Goklany detailed many of his findings in a 2007 book he wrote for Cato, The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet.

As you may imagine, Goklany, found much at fault with the WHO study and wrote his findings up for the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)—a U.K. think tank which produces a lot of good material on global warming.

In “Unhealthy Exaggeration: The WHO report on climate change” Goklany doesn’t pull any punches. You ought to have a look at the full report, but in the meantime, here is the Summary:

Some Perspective on the Headlining Antarctic Ice Loss Trends

The mainstream media has lit up the past few days with headlines of “alarming” news coming out of Antarctica highlighting new research on a more rapid than expected loss of ice from glaciers there.

But, as typical with blame-it-on-humans climate change stories, the coverage lacks detail, depth, and implication as well as being curiously timed.

We explain.

The research, by a team led by University of Cal-Irvine doctoral candidate Tyler Sutterley, first appeared online at the journal Geophysical Research Letters on November 15th, about two weeks before Thanksgiving. So why is it making headlines now? Probably because the National Aeronautics and Space Administration issued a press release on the new paper on December 2nd. Why wait so long? Because on December 1st, the United Nations kicked off its annual climate confab and the Obama administration is keen on orchestrating its release of scary-sounding climate stories so as to attempt to generate support for its executively commanded (i.e., avoiding Congress) carbon dioxide reduction initiatives that will be on display there. This also explains the recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration speculation that 2014 is going to be the “warmest year on record”—another headline grabber—two months before all the data will be collected and analyzed.

This is all predictable—and will essentially be unsuccessful.

Missing from the hype are the broader facts.

The new Sutterley research finds that glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment region along the coast of West Antarctica are speeding up and losing ice. This is potentially important because the ice loss contributes to global sea level rise. The press coverage is aimed to make this sound alarming—“This West Antarctic region sheds a Mount Everest-sized amount of ice every two years, study says” screamed the Washington Post.

Wow! That sounds like a lot. Turns out, it isn’t.

Making War on User Fees

The Highway Trust Fund hasn’t worked, says a new report from the Eno Transportation Foundation, so Congress should consider getting rid of it and funding all transportation out of general funds. In other words, the transportation system is breaking down because it has become too politicized, so we should solve the problem by making transportation even more political.

Eno (which was founded by William Phelps Eno, who is known as the “father of traffic safety”) claims this report is the result of 18 months of work by its policy experts. Despite all that work, the report’s conclusions would only make matters worse.

“The user pay principle works in theory,” says the report, “but has not worked in practice, at least as applied to federal transportation funding in the United States to date.” Actually, it worked great as long as Congress respected that principle, which it did from roughly 1956 through 1982. It only started to break down when Congress began diverting funds from highways to other programs. Then it really broke down when Congress, in its infinite wisdom, decided to spend more from the Trust Fund than it was earning from user fees. (It made the decision to spend a fixed amount each year regardless of revenues in 1998, but spending only actually exceeded revenues starting around 2008.)

Some argue that such breakdowns in the user-fee principle are inevitable when politicians get involved. This suggests that the government should get out of the way and let user fees work again. But Eno ignores that idea, and simply dismisses user fees altogether.

Eno suggests Congress has three options:

  1. Adjust spending to revenues, either by raising gas taxes or reducing spending.
  2. Fund some things out of gas taxes and some things out of general funds (which is more-or-less the status quo).
  3. Get rid of the Highway Trust Fund and just fund all transportation out of general funds.

“Any of these ideas would represent a dramatic improvement over the existing system,” says Eno, which isn’t true since the second idea is, pretty much, the existing system. But “based on our analysis, solution 3 is at least worth exploring.”

Champions at Making Promises

The White House has applauded Portland, Ore., and 15 other local governments as “climate action champions” for promising to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Perhaps the White House should have waited to see whether any of the communities managed to meet their goals before patting them on the back.

Portland’s “modest” goal is to reduce the city and Multnomah County emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050. Planners claim that, as of 2010, the city and county had reduced emissions by 6 percent from 1990 levels. However, this claim is full of hot air as all of the reductions are due to causes beyond planners’ control.

Almost two-thirds of the reduction was in the industrial sector, and virtually all of that was due to the closure in 2000 of an aluminum plant that once employed 520 people. The closure of that plant hasn’t led anyone to use less aluminum, so all it did was move emissions elsewhere.

Another 22 percent of the reduction was in residential emissions, and that was due solely to 2010’s “anomalously mild winter” and below-average summer temperatures, as 2009 emissions were greater than those in 1990. Only 7 percent of the reduction was in the transportation sector, for which Portland is famous. But all of that reduction was due to the recession, not the city’s climate plan, as transport-related emissions grew through 2005 and the city didn’t record a reduction until 2009. 

Portland doesn’t have many more large factories that it can put out of business to achieve its climate goals. Nor can the city count on a continued economic depression to keep people from driving or an anomalously mild climate to keep people from turning on their heat or air conditioning.

The lesson here is that cities and counties are the wrong level to try to reduce emissions of something like greenhouse gases. This is a lesson we should have learned already based on our experience with toxic pollutants such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides.

Mississippi Copies Misguided Energy Subsidies

The federal government has a long history of “green energy” failures. Many states have also foolishly subsidized green energy, including Mississippi.

KiOR biofuels launched several years ago with much fanfare. The company was supposed to turn wood chips into liquid hydrocarbons for use as fuel and promised to revolutionize the energy industry. Its chief investor, Vinod Khosla, described KiOR’s refinery as “an amazing facility.”

The company benefited from a federal biofuel requirement that mandated refiners use 16 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022. It then sought out state subsidies. The company decided to locate in Mississippi after the state offered a $75 million, no-interest loan. In exchange, the company promised to create 1,000 jobs by December 2015.

Yet the company had financial problems that were apparent from the start. Operating costs  ran $5 to $10 a gallon. The Washington Post reports that court papers estimated KiOR’s revenue at just $2.25 million but losses of $629.3 million.  

Production issues also plagued the facility. The system that fed wood chips into the plant frequently malfunctioned. The process converted less than 40 percent of its inputs into gasoline or diesel, leading to higher costs.

The problems were too much for the company to overcome. It filed bankruptcy in November and  still owes Mississippi $69.5 million.

This loan is just one of the many types of energy subsidies that Mississippi provides to green energy companies. The state exempts some green energy manufacturers from taxes. It has provided grants and loans to multiple companies.

Carbon Dioxide Enrichment of Peach Trees: How Sweet It Is!

In our all-too-politically-correct world, carbon dioxide (CO2) frequently gets a bad rap, demonized for its potential and unverified effects on climate. However, if the truth be told, carbon dioxide is a magnificent molecule, essential to nearly all life on Earth. It is the primary raw material from which plants construct their tissues and grow during the process of photosynthesis. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, therefore, that plants perform this essential function ever better as atmospheric CO2 levels climb ever higher, a fact demonstrated in literally thousands of laboratory and field studies (see, for example, the Plant Growth Database of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change). And because plants are the ultimate food source for animals and humans, we are all indebted to CO2 for its role in sustaining and promoting the growth of plants everywhere.

But there are other benefits to atmospheric CO2 enrichment beyond enhancing plant growth, as illustrated in the recent study of Xi et al. (2014). Publishing in the professional journal Food Chemistry, the six-member team of Chinese horticultural and food scientists “investigated the effectiveness of CO2 enrichment for improving fruit flavor and customer acceptance of greenhouse-grown peaches.” 

The rationale for their study stems from the fact that peaches are widely cultivated in greenhouses throughout northern China. Under such controlled conditions, the trees are afforded protection from the natural environment, including damaging low temperatures and high winds. But this protection does not come without a price—plant photosynthesis can cause CO2 levels inside closed greenhouses to decrease during daylight hours to values below 200 parts per million, which values are half or less than half the CO2 concentration of normal outside air. As a result, Xi et al. state these “low CO2 levels may be a limiting factor for the productivity of fruit trees cultivated in greenhouses,” and they may negatively impact the “development of fruit flavor quality” and aroma, which is not good for those in the peach growing business! Thus, the six scientists set out to explore how enriching greenhouse air with CO2 might mitigate these potential problems.

For their experimental design, Xi et al. (2014) divided a greenhouse into two parts using a hermetic barrier wall, supplying one side with CO2-enriched air and the other with ambient air to be used as the control. The enriched side of the greenhouse was maintained at an atmospheric CO2 value of 360 ppm (approximately twice that of the control) from 12:00 to 16:00 each day during the main CO2 shortage period, while “fruit sugar, organic acids, volatile contents and consumer acceptability were investigated, focusing on the period of postharvest ripening.”

With respect to their findings, the Chinese researchers report that net photosynthesis was significantly increased in the trees growing in the CO2-enchanced portion of the greenhouse despite their receiving only a mere 4 hours of CO2 enrichment per day above those growing in the ambient or control portion of the structure. Elevated CO2 also improved fruit flavor and aroma, significantly increasing dominant sugar levels (sucrose and fructose), fruity aroma compounds (lactones), and floral scent compounds (norisoprenoids), while decreasing compounds that contribute to fruit sourness and undesirable aroma volatiles (Table 1). 

Table1. Percent difference of various peach fruit compounds from trees grown in CO2 enriched air, relative to trees grown in ambient air, as measured in fruit picked on the day of harvest and five days after harvest.  Data derived from Table 1 of Xi et al. (2014).

Table1. Percent difference of various peach fruit compounds from trees grown in CO2 enriched air, relative to trees grown in ambient air, as measured in fruit picked on the day of harvest and five days after harvest. Data derived from Table 1 of Xi et al. (2014).

As a result of their findings, the authors conclude that “CO2 enrichment can significantly improve the flavor quality of ‘Zaolupantao’ peach fruits grown in greenhouse and their consumer acceptance.” And if it can do that from a mere four hours of CO2 enrichment per day in a greenhouse, imagine what 24 hours of enrichment might promise for other fruiting plants growing out-of-doors, in natural environments, under present-day global atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm and above? Hinting at the possibilities, Xi et al. cite the work of researchers studying other fruits, where similar CO2 benefits have been reported for tomato (Shahidul Islam et al., 1996; Zhang et al., 2014), strawberry (Wang and Bunce, 2004; Sun et al., 2012), and grapes (Bindi et al., 2001).

Yes, truth be told, atmospheric CO2 is a magnificent molecule, and those who continue to demonize it based on potential and unproven climatic effects, should wake up and smell the peaches—or they should at least eat one and taste how sweet its biological benefits can be!


References

Bindi, M., Fibbi, L. and Miglietta, F. 2001. Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.): II. Growth and quality of grape and wine in response to elevated CO2 concentrations. European Journal of Agronomy 14: 145–155.

Shahidul Islam, M., Matsui, T. and Yoshida, Y. 1996. Effect of carbon dioxide enrichment on physico-chemical and enzymatic changes in tomato fruits at various stages of maturity. Scientia Horticulturae 65: 137–149.

Sun, P., Mantri, N., Lou, H., Hu, Y., Sun, D., Zhu, Y., Dong, T. and Lu, H. 2012. Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on yield and fruit quality of strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.) at two levels of nitrogen application. PLoS ONE e41000.

Wang, S. Y. and Bunce, J. A. 2004. Elevated carbon dioxide affects fruit flavor in field-grown

strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa Duch). Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture 84: 1464–1468.

Xi, W., Zhang, Q., Lu, X., Wei, C., Yu, S. and Zhou, Z. 2014. Improvement of flavor quality and consumer acceptance during postharvest ripening in greenhouse peaches by carbon dioxide enrichment. Food Chemistry 164: 219-227.

Zhang, Z.M., Liu, L.H., Zhang, M., Zhang, Y.S. and Wang, Q.M. 2014. Effect of carbon dioxide enrichment on health-promoting compounds and organoleptic properties of tomato fruits grown in greenhouse. Food Chemistry 153: 157-163.

Just in Time for Thanksgiving, Another Turkey from the Obama Administration

The shameful Obama Administration practice of proposing dreadful environmental regulations on or near national holidays continues. Last year they were on global warming, and this year it’s low-level ozone. Neither regulation will have a detectable “benefit,” but both impose enormous costs. Perhaps President Obama’s placing this announcement in the news cycle just before Thanksgiving and Black Friday is indicative of how popular he thinks these regulations will be.

So it goes. The lessons of November 4 remain unlearned, with the administration doubling down in the service of all of its green friends that didn’t vote. The fact is that the ground zero of the thermonuclear electoral explosion three weeks ago was in the coal mining areas of Kentucky and West Virginia. In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell was supposedly in a close race with Alison Grimes and instead won by a whopping 18 points. Nick Rahall, a 19-term (!) Democratic congressman from West Virginia saw a similar swing: he won his seat by eight points in 2012 and lost by 10 in 2014, with the net change in two years totaling 18. 

The proposed ozone rules are yet another example of what happens when good ideas go bad. Pretty much everyone agrees that EPA, along with the states, have done a remarkable job in cleaning up our air. The eye-stinging smogs of Los Angeles are history. Pittsburgh was once so dirty that masonry turned black, causing people to wonder what was happening in their lungs. We have done great things and enjoy air that is cleaner than that of any economic superpower in the history of this planet.

Environmental protection is what systems engineers call a “heuristic device,” defined as “a solution which is not guaranteed to be optimal, but is good enough for a given set of goals.” The problem, of course, is that heuristic devices don’t tell you when to stop. Instead they keep being applied, in this case by the bureaucracy-for-life known as the Environmental Protection Agency, producing massively diminishing returns for massively increased costs. And, at President Obama’s urging, it will never hear the word “stop.”

Millions of people are increasingly disenchanted with the administration’s high-handed approach to command-and-control regulations imposed when we aren’t supposed to be looking.  If enough people remain grumpy about this, Barack Obama may yet again stand in the way of a Hillary Clinton presidency.