Topic: Energy and Environment

Understanding the World’s Energy Needs

A new documentary by Cato Senior Fellow Johan Norberg, shown recently on PBS stations nationwide, is a non-political look at the reality of the world’s energy problems. “Energy questions are complicated, and there are always trade-offs,” Norberg notes.    While bringing electricity to many remote villages in India and the Sahara causes an increase in carbon emissions, it also allows families to have refrigeration for their food, electricity to light their homes and the time to develop their lives beyond working just to sustain themselves every day.   “Don’t they deserve the same kinds of life changing benefits that power has brought the west?” Norberg asks.

This program explains how ALL sources of energy have their attributes and drawbacks.   It will take large amounts of low-cost power to fuel economic development in the third world, while also keeping up with growth in the developed world.  There is no “perfect” source to meet these needs:  Coal and oil make up a third of the current world energy supply, so while the infrastructure is in place and works fairly inexpensively, these fossil fuels are consistently tagged as “dirty.”  Natural gas is abundant and clean, and cheap and easy to use, but the means of getting to it (fracking) is controversial.  Nuclear energy power is one of the only large-scale alternatives to fossil fuels, but nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Three Mile Island have made the public wary.  Hydro power is clean and fairly cheap, but dams have been targeted by environmentalist for harming fish populations. And, Norberg notes, most good sources of hydropower are already being utilized to their full capacity, leaving little chance to expand this resource.  Solar power is clean and abundant, but it doesn’t work when the sun doesn’t shine, and the infrastructure to capture it is expensive.  Wind supplies only one percent of energy globally because while it’s clean, it’s intermittent and doesn’t always come at the right velocity.

Norberg doesn’t make judgements, for the most part…except to say that top-down, government imposed “solutions” to the world’s energy problems have not worked yet, and are highly unlikely to suddenly start working. 

This is an excellent program for people who really want to understand the basics of world energy needs.  Watch it at Cato’s site here, and read more about the Free to Choose network here.

Announcing the Spin Cycles and Our First Award

Judging from the November electoral tsunami, whose epicenter was in coal country, people aren’t taking very kindly to the persistent exaggeration of mundane weather and climate stories that ultimately leads to, among other things, unemployment and increased cost of living. In response, we’ve decided to initiate “The Spin Cycles” based upon just how much the latest weather or climate story, policy pronouncement, or simply poo-bah blather spins the truth.

Like the popular and useful Fujita tornado ratings (“F1” through “F5”), or the oft-quoted Saffir-Simpson hurricane severity index (Category 1 through Category 5), and in the spirit of the Washington Post’s iconic “Pinocchios,”, we hereby initiate the “Spin Cycle,” using a scale of Delicates through Permanent Press. Our image will be the universal vortex symbol for tropical cyclones, intimately familiar to anyone who has ever been alive during hurricane season, being spun by a washing machine. Here’s how they stack up, with apologies to the late Ted Fujita and Bob Simpson, two of the true heroes of atmospheric science with regard to the number of lives their research ultimately saved.

And so, here we have it:

Delicates. An accidentally misleading statement by a person operating outside their area of expertise. Little harm, little foul. One spin cycle.

You Ought to Have a Look: Science Round Up—Less Warming, Little Ice Melt, Lack of Imagination

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

As Pope Francis, this week, focused on examining the moral issues of climate change (and largely ignoring the bigger moral issues that accompany fossil fuel restrictions), he pretty much took as a given that climate change is “a scientific reality” that requires “decisive mitigation.” Concurrently, unfolding scientific events during the week were revealing a different story.

First and foremost, Roy Spencer, John Christy and William Braswell of the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH)—developers and curators of the original satellite-derived compilation of the temperature history of the earth’s atmosphere—released a new and improved version of their iconic data set. Bottom line: the temperature trend in the lower atmosphere from the start of the data (1979) through the present came in as 0.114°C/decade (compared with 0.14°C in the previous data version). The new warming trend is less than half what climate models run with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions project to have occurred.

While the discrepancy between real world observations and climate model projections of temperature rise in the lower atmosphere has been recognized for a number of years, the question has remained as to whether the “problem” lies within the climate models or the observations. With this new data release, the trend in the UAH data now matches very closely with the trend through an independent compilation of the satellite-temperature observations maintained by a team of researchers at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). The convergence of the observed data sets is an indication the climate models are the odd man out.

As with most long-term, real-world observations, the data are covered in warts. The challenge posed to Spencer et al. was how to splice together remotely sensed data collected from a variety of instruments carried aboard a variety of satellites in unstable orbits—and produce a product robust enough for use in climate studies. The details as to how they did it are explained as clearly as possible in this post over at Spencer’s website (although still quite a technical post). The post provides good insight as to why raw data sets need to be “adjusted”—a lesson that should be kept in mind when considering the surface temperature compilations as well. In most cases, using raw data “as is” is an inherently improper thing to do, and the types of adjustments that are applied may vary based upon the objective.

Here is a summary of the new data set and what was involved in producing it:

Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature data set is by far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years of global temperature monitoring. The two most significant changes from an end-user perspective are (1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) temperature trend from +0.140 C/decade to +0.114 C/decade (Dec. ’78 through Mar. ’15); and (2) the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution. We describe the major changes in processing strategy, including a new method for monthly gridpoint averaging; a new multi-channel (rather than multi-angle) method for computing the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product; and a new empirical method for diurnal drift correction… The 0.026 C/decade reduction in the global LT trend is due to lesser sensitivity of the new LT to land surface skin temperature (est. 0.010 C/decade), with the remainder of the reduction (0.016 C/decade) due to the new diurnal drift adjustment, the more robust method of LT calculation, and other changes in processing procedures.

Figure 1 shows a comparison of the data using the new procedures with that derived from the old procedures. Notice that in the new dataset, the temperature anomalies since about 2003 are less than those from the previous version. This has the overall effect of reducing the trend when computed over the entirety of the record.

Figure 1. Monthly global-average temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere from Jan. 1979 through March, 2015 for both the old and new versions of LT (source: www.drroyspencer.com)

 

Figure 1. Monthly global-average temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere from Jan. 1979 through March 2015 for both the old and new versions of LT. (Source: www.drroyspencer.com)

While this new version, admittedly, is not perfect, Spencer, Christy, and Braswell see it as an improvement over the old version. Note that this is not the official release, but rather a version the authors have released for researchers to examine and see if they can find anything that looks irregular that may raise questions as to the procedures employed. Spencer et al. expect a scientific paper on the new data version to be published sometime in 2016.

But unless something major comes up, the new satellite data are further evidence the earth is not warming as expected.  That means that, before rushing into “moral obligations” to attempt to alter the climate’s future course by restricting energy production, we perhaps ought to spend more time trying to better understand what it is we should be expecting in the first place.

One of the things we are told by the more alarmist crowd that we should expect from our fossil fuel burning is a large and rapid sea level rise, primarily a result of a melting of the ice sheets that rest atop Greenland and Antarctica. All too frequently we see news stories telling tales of how the melting in these locations is “worse than we expected.” Some soothsayers even attack the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for being too conservative (of all things) when it comes to projecting future sea level rise. While the IPCC projects a sea level rise of about 18–20 inches from its mid-range emissions scenario over the course of this century, a vocal minority clamor that the rise will be upwards of 3 feet and quite possibly (or probably) greater. All the while, the sea level rise over the past quarter-century has been about 3 inches.

But as recent observations do little to dissuade the hardcore believers, perhaps model results (which they are seemingly more comfortable with) will be more convincing.

A new study available this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is described by author Miren Vizcaino and colleagues as “a first step towards fully-coupled higher resolution simulations with more advanced physics”—basically, a detailed ice sheet model coupled with a global climate model.

They ran this model combination with the standard IPCC emissions scenarios to assess Greenland’s contribution to future sea level rise. Here’s what they found:

The [Greenland ice sheet] volume change at year 2100 with respect to year 2000 is equivalent to 27 mm (RCP 2.6), 34 mm (RCP 4.5) and 58 mm (RCP 8.5) of global mean SLR.

Translating millimeters (mm) into inches give this answer: a projected 21st century sea level rise of 1.1 in. (for the low emissions scenario; RCP 2.6), 1.3 in. (for the low/mid scenario; RCP 4.5), and 2.3 in (for the IPCC’s high-end emission scenario). Some disaster.

As with any study, the authors attach some caveats:

The study presented here must be regarded as a necessary first step towards more advanced coupling of ice sheet and climate models at higher resolution, for instance with improved surface-atmosphere coupling (e.g., explicit representation of snow albedo evolution), less simplified ice sheet flow dynamics, and the inclusion of ocean forcing to Greenland outlet glaciers.

Even if they are off by 3–4 times, Greenland ice loss doesn’t seem to be much of a threat. Seems like it’s time to close the book on this imagined scare scenario.

And while imagination runs wild when it comes to linking carbon dioxide emissions to calamitous climate changes and extreme weather events (or even war and earthquakes),  imagination runs dry when it comes to explaining non-events (except when non-events string together to produce some sort of negative outcome [e.g., drought]).

Case in point, a new study looking into the record-long absence of major hurricane (category 3 or higher) strikes on the U.S. mainland—an absence that exceeds nine years (the last major hurricane to hit the U.S was Hurricane Wilma in late-October 2005). The authors of the study, Timothy Hall of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Kelly Hereid from ACE Tempest Reinsurance, concluded that while a streak this long is rare, their results suggest “there is nothing unusual underlying the current hurricane drought. There’s no extraordinary lack of hurricane activity.” Basically they concluded that it’s “a case of good luck” rather than “any shift in hurricane climate.”

That is all well and good, and almost certainly the case. Of course, the same was true a decade ago when the United States was hit by seven major hurricanes over the course of two hurricane seasons (2004 and 2005)—an occurrence that spawned several prominent papers and endless discussion pointing the finger squarely at anthropogenic climate change. And the same is true for every hurricane that hits the United States, although this doesn’t stop someone, somewhere, from speculating to the media that the storm’s occurrence was “consistent with” expectations from a changing climate.

What struck us as odd about the Hall and Hereid paper is the lack of speculation as to how the ongoing record “drought” of major hurricane landfalls in the United States could be tied in with anthropogenic climate change. You can rest assured—and history will confirm—that if we had been experiencing a record run of hurricane landfalls, researchers would be falling all over themselves to draw a connection to human-caused global warming.

But the lack of anything bad happening? No way anyone wants to suggest that is “consistent with” expectations. According to Hall and Hereid:

A hurricane-climate shift protecting the US during active years, even while ravaging nearby Caribbean nations, would require creativity to formulate. We conclude instead that the admittedly unusual 9-year US Cat3+ landfall drought is a matter of luck. [emphasis added]

Right! A good string of weather is “a matter of luck” while bad weather is “consistent with” climate change.

It’s not like it’s very hard, or (despite the authors’ claim) it requires much “creativity” to come up with ways to construe a lack of major hurricane strikes on U.S. soil to be “consistent with” anthropogenic climate change. In fact, there are loads of material in the scientific literature that could be used to construct an argument that under global warming, the United States should experience fewer hurricane landfalls. For a rundown of them, see p. 30 of our comments on the government’s National Assessment on Climate Change, or check out our piece titled, “Global Savings: Billion-Dollar Weather Events Averted by Global Warming.”

It is not for lack of material, but rather, for lack of desire, that keeps folks from wanting to draw a potential link between human-caused climate change and good things occurring in the world.

References:

Hall, T., and K. Hereid. 2015. “The Frequency and Duration of US Hurricane Droughts.” Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2015GL063652

Vizcaino, M. et al. 2015. “Coupled Simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and Climate Change up to AD 2300.” Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061142

You Ought to Have a Look: Earth Day Round-Up

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  ere we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Since the Earth Day coverage this year seemed rather meager—a sign, perhaps, that everyone is growing tired of the pessimistic drone that defines the current environmental movement—it is possible that you may have overlooked a few stories out there that shine a more positive light on the human condition and the way forward.

You ought to take a few minutes and take Alex Epstein’s short course from Prager University. It is presented in the form of a 5-minute video titled “Why You Should Love Fossil Fuel.” Here’s course description:

Every year on Earth Day we learn how bad humanity’s economic development is for the health of the planet. But maybe this is the wrong message. Maybe we should instead reflect on how human progress, even use of fossil fuels, has made our environment cleaner and healthier. Alex Epstein of the Center for Industrial Progress explains.

We hope you like this, because you’ll undoubtedly be hearing much more from Alex in the future as we are happy that he has joined us at the Center for Study of Science as one of Cato’s newest adjunct scholars.

Senator Whitehouse Declaims

On the floor of the Senate last night, on the eve of Earth Day, Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse went after the Cato Institute—among others, including the Washington Times and the Wall Street Journal—for our having accused the senator and his friends in the environmental movement of “having a widespread faith in the government’s ability to solve problems.” We plead guilty. Not only do we believe those folks are of that faith—the evidence is plain, even if the evidence supporting the faith is lacking—but we believe also that it is a self-serving faith, because it drives them to find ever more problems to solve, problems most of us never knew we had.

But it’s a letter that then-Cato President John Allison recently sent to Sen. Whitehouse and others in Congress that seems most to exercise the good senator. As the C-SPAN transcript puts it:

cato also sent us a letter in response to our inquiry, telling us we cannot use the awesome power of the federal government to cow cato and others. cow? according to the “wall street journal” editorial page, which, sadly, has become a front for the fossil fuel industry, we were – quote – “trying to silence the other side.” although i have to confess, mr. president, it is not clear how the other side would be silenced by simply having to reveal whose payroll they’re on, which is all we asked. let’s be clear our letter didn’t suggest that industry scientists should be silenced, just that the public should know if those scientists are being paid by the very industries with a big economic …

Ah. There we have it. We’re in the pockets of Big Oil. Never mind that the facts show otherwise, that Cato’s donor base is wide and composed almost entirely of individuals animated by the idea of a free society under limited government.

But that’s not the main point, not really. Rather, it’s the assumption of Sen. Whitehouse and his friends that they, whose outlook depends so much on government funding, fairly dripping with the taxpayers’ blood, have the cleanest of hands and the purest of motives. Yet why should we believe that the avaricious individuals these folks call on government to check, suddenly become virtuous when they have the monopoly power of government in their grasp, to say nothing of the public till at their disposal? If ever scrutiny were warranted, I should think it on that side of the ledger.

A Clear Case of Selective Data Usage from the U.S National Climate Assessment

Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

In the process of writing our upcoming book, The Lukewarmer’s Manifesto, we wandered into the funhouse of the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA).

Recall that the NCA is a product of the federal government’s U.S. Global Change Research Program, whose motto isThirteen Agencies, One Mission: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science.”

In their case, “empower” is synonymous with “indoctrinate.”

Here is a good example:

The section on hurricanes in Chapter 2 (“Our Changing Climate”) caught our eye. The NCA has a sidebar on the history of the hurricane “power dissipation index” (PDI), a well-known cubic function of the wind velocity. The NCAs graphs  begin in 1970 and end in 2009 (a full four years before the NCA was released). They include a trend line through the PDI data beginning in 1980 that’s going up for whatever reason and that is apparently convenient for drawing an association with human-caused global warming. But had the NCA authors consulted a longer record, say, from 1920 to 2013 (the last year data was available for the 2014 NCA) they could have readily ruled out any role of global warming.

 

Figure 1. From page 42 of the hardcopy of the 2014 National Assessment Report form the USGCRP (available here).

Earth Day’s Anti-Humanism in One Graph and Two Tables

Here, courtesy of Cato’s www.HumanProgress.org, is the quintessence of Earth Day’s anti-humanism. Botswana and Burundi started off as equally poor. In 1962, their GNI per capita was a paltry $70 per person.

By 2012, Botswana’s income per person rose by some 10,829 percent to $7,650. Burundi’s rose by mere 243 percent to $240. Botswana is an African success story, while Burundi is a failure–that is, if you judge the two countries by their income and, consequently, their standards of living.

If, however, you judge the two countries by their CO2 emissions per person, Burundi is the clear winner. Between 1972 and 2010 (the maximum number of years for which data on CO2 emissions per capita is available for both countries), CO2 emissions per person in Burundi increased only 62 percent. In Botswana it skyrocketed by 8,847 percent.

As my colleague Pat Michaels noted earlier, growing wealth necessitates higher carbon emissions in the short or medium term, but greater prosperity enables people to become both greener and more energy efficient in the long term. Denying cheap energy to the developing world will trap hundreds of millions of people in poverty and lead to more humanitarian disasters.