Topic: Energy and Environment

Pope Fallible on Climate Change

Most people think pretty highly of Pope Francis, and I am one of them.  His concern for the poor is exemplary.  His tilt towards gay issues has been widely lauded.  But I am afraid he has been very poorly informed on climate change.

That would be of little consequence, except he is taking the issue very seriously.  Flying to the Philippines on Wednesday, he told reporters  that he will be releasing an encyclical on ecology this coming summer.  According to the AP,

He said he wanted it out in plenty of time to be read and absorbed before the next round of climate change negotiations in Paris in November after the last round in Lima, Peru, failed to reach an agreement.

While he’s definitely right about what happened in Lima, he also is clearly trying to influence the UN process. I guess that’s well and good, after all, the Vatican is a state.  But what is troubling, very troubling, is that poorly informed views on global warming can lead to a tremendously expensive agreement that will do nothing about the climate, while taking away needed resources and exacerbating poverty around the world.

Saturday, in the Philippines, he met with survivors from 2013’s Typhoon Haiyan (also known as Yolanda in the Islands), certainly one of the most powerful storms in recent history. Haiyan reportedly killed 6,000. On the aircraft, Francis said that human activity, meaning emissions of greenhouse gases, was involved. 

A Pope who wants to be as influential as Francis lends great credence to the belief that tropical cyclones (like Haiyan) are being made worse by global warming. These storms are as iconic as polar bears (whose populations are growing) when it comes to generating the political will for a new treaty in Paris. 

It is very easy to see whether global warming is strengthening tropical cyclones.  Dr. Ryan Maue, of Weatherbell Analytics, has examined every storm back to the beginning of global satellite coverage,  for their winds and their duration, which together yield the energy associated with them.  Here’s his result, updated through December 2014:

 

Figure 1. Accumulated Tropical Cyclone Energy, 1972-2014, by Dr. Ryan Maue.  There is simply no relationship between storm activity and global temperature.

The  only way major emissions reductions—of the kind ultimately envisioned by Pope Frances—can be accomplished is to make carbon dioxide-emitting energy so expensive that people will use less, much less.  There’s really no viable energy-dense alternative out there that doesn’t emit CO2. Nuclear fission, which would qualify, is anathema to the same people who want big emissions cuts. His policies will therefore keep the underdeveloped world poor, precisely what he wants to change.

Wealthy societies are much less affected by bad weather than poorer ones. Very strong typhoons regularly strike affluent Hong Kong, with few, if any fatalities.  By making energy unaffordable, the policies Francis wants will impede economic development, so that, decades from now, when a repeat of Haiyan barrels through the Islands, many more will die.

You Ought to Have a Look: Record Global Temperatures

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

A lot of buzz around the web was generated late this week with the announcement from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that 2014 topped their list as the warmest year since their records began in the late 1800s.

While most of the mainstream media coverage focused on the record-setting temperatures and breathlessly spoke of how this was further indication that humans are warming the climate, the blogosphere was full of articles throwing cold water on this overheated rhetoric by pointing out that despite the past year’s warm temperatures, 1) global warming continues to occur at only a snail’s pace, and 2) this pace is far beneath that projected by the world’s collection of climate models—models developed for the specific purpose of projecting  future climate changes. With each passing year, their performance becomes worse and worse. That is the big story about 2014’s temperatures.

Here are some sites that astutely picked up on that:

Over at Climate Etc., Judy Curry has her say in “‘Warmest year’, ‘pause’, and all that.” Her bottom line?

Berkeley Earth sums it up well with this statement:

That is, of course, an indication that the Earth’s average temperature for the last decade has changed very little.

The key issue remains the growing discrepancy between the climate model projections and the observations: 2014 just made the discrepancy larger.

Speculation about ‘warmest year’ and end of ‘pause’ implies a near term prediction of surface temperatures—that they will be warmer. I’ve made my projection—global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade. However, I’m not willing to place much $$ on that bet, since I suspect that Mother Nature will manage to surprise us. (I will be particularly surprised if the rate of warming in the next decade is at the levels expected by the IPCC.)

Proposed EPA Methane Emissions Regulations Are a Waste of Time and Energy

Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

New Actions to Reduce Methane Emissions Will Curb Climate Change, Cut Down on Wasted Energy” reads the headline from Wednesday’s White House blog, posted by Counselor to the President John Podesta (who will be leaving this post soon to serve as a senior adviser to Hillary Clinton’s presumed 2016 presidential campaign).

Let’s hope Podesta didn’t write the title, because it is completely wrong.

First off, methane isn’t energy. It’s a gas. Like anything else, it can be converted to energy, and like a fuel the conversion process produces more energy than it takes to perform it. But methane leaks from the oil and gas sectors no more represent “wasted energy” than does cow flatulence.

More accurately, methane leaks represent lost revenue. Or at least they would if natural gas prices were higher. With prices as low as they are, companies sometime find it more costly to stop the leaks than what they gain by capturing the methane and bringing it to market.

Consider that the price of natural gas is so low in many regions where oil is being extracted from tight shale deposits (for example, the Bakken region of North Dakota and in west Texas) that the methane that is produced along with the oil is simply flared (burned) on site, rather than being captured and brought to market. It is more expensive to develop the transport infrastructure (largely it has to be transported via pipeline) than the return on the sale of natural gas.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that in 2013, more than 260 billion cubic feet of methane was flared in the United States. In essence, this methane represented more “unwanted” energy than “wasted” energy.

Warmest Year on Record Is Still Bad News for Climate Models

Yesterday, Jason Samenow of the Washington Post asked me for a brief comment on NOAA’s upcoming pronouncement of the warmest year in their record. Jason runs CapitalWeather (or “CapitalWeatherGang” or “CWG” to those in the know in Washington) for the Post, and it is a very popular site as he may be the best forecaster around when it comes to D.C.’s hard-to-predict winter weather.

Here is what I sent to him:

Whether or not a given year is a hundredth of a degree or so above a previous record is not the issue. What IS the issue is how observed temperatures compare to what has been forecast to happen. John Christy and Richard McNider, from the University of Alabama (Huntsville), recently compared climate model projections to observed lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by two independent sources: satellites and weather balloons, and they found that the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed. CWG would give itself probably a D- if it forecast 12 inches of snow and got only 3.

FYI, here’s the comparison, through 2013 (it was published in 2014).

Big Brother Wants to Watch You Drive

In 2008, the Washington legislature passed a law mandating a 50 percent reduction in per capita driving by 2050. California and Oregon laws or regulations have similar but somewhat less draconian targets.

The Obama administration wants to mandate that all new cars come equipped with vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, so the car can send signals to and receive messages from street lights and other infrastructure.

Now the California Air Resources Board is considering regulations requiring that all cars monitor their owners’ driving habits, including but not limited to how many miles they drive, how much fuel they use, and how much pollution or greenhouse gases they emit.

Put these all together and you have a system in which the government will not only know where your vehicle is at all times, but can turn off your vehicle if it decides you are driving too much or driving in a way that emits too many grams of carbon dioxide or is otherwise offensive to some bureaucratic imperative.

I sometimes think privacy advocates are a paranoid bunch, seeing men in black around every corner and surveillance helicopters or drones in the air at all times. On the other hand, if a technology is available–such as the ability to record cell phone calls–the government has proven it will use it.

Consider all of the lovable progressives out there who think the government should “punish climate change liars,” meaning people who have differing opinions on scientific issues. It’s not much a stretch to think that, any time they happen to be in power, they will use the available technology to make people stop driving. After all, just how important can that extra trip to the supermarket be compared to the absolute imperative of preventing the seas from rising a quadrillionth of an inch?

Of course, the elected officials and bureaucrats who run this system will exempt themselves from the rules. After all, nothing is more important than their work of running the country and making sure people don’t abuse their freedom by engaging in too much mobility.

As California writer Steven Greenhut points out, we already have red-light cameras, and some “eastern states have suspended drivers from using toll lanes after their transponders showed them to be speeders.” They’re not invading our privacy, the greens will argue, they are just making sure that our actions aren’t harming Mother Earth.

Of course, for many it really isn’t about greenhouse gas emissions. Mobility allows (or, as anti-auto groups would say, forces) people to living in low-density “sprawl” where they can escape taxation by cities eager to subsidize stadiums, convention centers, and light-rail lines. All they have to do is ramp down people’s monthly driving rations–something like a cap-and-trade system that steadily reduces the caps–and suburbanites will eventually find that they have to move back to the cities.

No doubt some will argue that even those who drive the most fuel-efficient cars should be subject to the same driving limits because suburban homes waste energy too. Or that people will be safer from terrorists if they are all jammed together in cities close to emergency facilities than if they are spread across the countryside. Or that suburbanites are parasites on the cities and should be reassimilated back into the cities’ benign embrace and taxing districts.

Whatever the argument, the point is that if the technology is there, the government will use it. If people really want to buy cars that monitor their every move and are capable of communicating those moves to some central infrastructure, they should be allowed to do so. But allowing the government to mandate these things is simply asking to have well-meaning, and sometimes not-so-well-meaning, government bureaucrats control how we travel and where we live.

Republicans Should Offer Their Own Climate Change Amendment to Keystone XL Measure

As we predicted here, the Senate’s Keystone XL Pipeline legislation is going to be pelted with global warming-related amendments from Democrats as the price for a veto-proof bill. Most interesting is one by Bernie Sanders (S-VT) which asks the Senate to vote on whether climate change is real and made “worse” by dreaded carbon dioxide emissions.

Of course the first part is true—“climate” and “change” go hand-in-hand.  But the fact is that the warming that is occurring is happening at a rate far below what was forecast, and hasn’t been happening at all for 18+ years now.  So, perhaps some Republican will propose an amendment that in fact approaches the truth in this nuanced issue.

Perhaps, “Climate change is real and it is demonstrable that the climate models used by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to predict the future are on the verge of failure.”

Kerry, Obama Pressuring India on Climate Change

Secretary of State John Kerry is currently in India as advance guard for President Obama’s visit later this month. The president is going there to try and get some commitment from India (or the illusion of a commitment) to reduce its emissions of dreaded greenhouse gases. Until now, India, along with China, has resisted calls for major reductions, effectively blocking any global treaty limiting fossil fuel use. The president is very keen on changing this before this December’s United Nations confab in Paris, where such a treaty is supposed to be inked. 

Kerry’s mission is to get India ready for the president. Speaking at a trade conference in the state of Gujarat, Kerry said, “Global climate change is already violently affecting communities, not just across India but around the world. It is disrupting commerce, development and economic growth. It’s costing farmers crops.”

In reality, global climate change is exerting no detectable effect on India’s main crop production. 

As shown below the jump, the rate of increase in wheat yields has been constant since records began in the mid-1950s, and the rate of increase in rice yields is actually higher in the last three decades than it was at the start of the record.

Further, if Kerry was saying that climate change is reducing crop yields around the world, that’s wrong too. The increase in global yields has also been constant for decades.