Deficits are often used as reason for higher taxes, such as in 1993 and 1982. But to believe in higher taxes as sound economic policy in coming years, you also have to believe in the CBO’s cheery forecast that hundreds of billion of dollars in new taxes will have little or no effect on economic growth. Now you don’t have to be an acolyte of supply-side guru Arthur Laffer to find that sort of “static analysis” a little weird. Most Americans probably would. So, apparently, did the economic team at Goldman Sachs, the old employer of Robert Rubin, President Bill Clinton’s second treasury secretary. Thus the firm’s econ wonks decided to try and simulate the real-world effect of letting the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2010. Using the respected Washington University Macro Model, Goldman reset the tax code to its pre-Bush status, assumed all tax cuts expired, and watched how the economy reacted as 2011 began. What did the firm see? Well, in the first quarter of 2011 the economy dropped 3 percentage points below what it would have been otherwise. “Absent a tailwind to growth from some other source,” the analysis concludes, “this would almost surely mark the onset of a recession.”
Featuring the author Angus Deaton, Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of Economic and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs & Economics Department, Princeton University; with comments by Charles Kenny, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development; moderated by Ian Vasquez, Director, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Cato Institute.
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December 6, 2013
Tim Lynch discusses the rising number of arrested D.C. police department officers on WUSA’s 9 News at 6pm
December 5, 2013
Interest rates should be determined by the interaction of savers and investors, not driven by the arbitrary whims of government officials in Washington.
The 2008-2009 financial crisis and Great Recession have vastly increased the power and scope of the Federal Reserve, and radically changed the financial landscape. This new ebook examines those changes and considers how the links between money, markets, and government may evolve in the future.