Higher Immigration, Lower Crime

Yes, you read that right. The story is more complicated than a short headline can covey, but that is the gist of an article of mine in the just-out December issue of Commentary magazine. [Subscription needed.]

The past 15 years have witnessed two undeniable trends: dramatically rising levels of immigration, both low-skilled and high-skilled, and an equally dramatic plunge in crime rates nationally. I don’t argue that increased immigration in the past 15 years is the primary cause of falling crime rates, but I do argue that the evidence punches a gaping hole in the Lou-Dobbs contention that immigrants have clogged our prisons and unleashed a new wave of crime.

In the Commentary article, and in an earlier Cato Free Trade Bulletin, I cite Census data that show that incarceration rates for immigrants are significantly lower than for native-born Americans. The contrast is especially sharp between immigrants without a high-school diploma and their native-born counterparts. Along with their lower propensity to commit crimes, immigrants are also more likely to be employed than similarly educated Americans.

Or as the subhead of the magazine article nicely puts it, “Today’s ‘underclass’ of newcomers seeks a day’s work, not a drug deal.”