myron ebell

Some Climate Realities for the Incoming Administration to Consider

While the twitterverse is chirping with concern over Donald Trump’s handling of the global warming science, we offer a few realities that should be key parts of any transitional team’s synthesis.

1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that by itself will result in a slight warming of the lower atmosphere and surface temperatures, as well as a cooling of the stratosphere.

     a. All of these have been observed.

 2. Additional warming is provided by a complicated feedback with water vapor. If it were large and positive, so would be future warming.

     a. The observed warming is far below values consistent with a high temperature sensitivity. Therefore future warming will run considerably below any high-sensitivity estimate.

     b. The disparity between observed and forecast warming continues to grow.

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