![Digital map of the world](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/optimized/public/2021-01/GettyImages-851975000.jpg?itok=b9I927vQ) # Project on Threat Inflation At a Glance Americans cannot go a day without hearing dire warnings of pending disaster and doom from pundits and policymakers. While fear serves an important purpose in evaluating threats, danger lies in misunderstanding the realities and likelihoods of different threats. Exaggerating the threat of something sensational but improbable means we’re more liable to be under prepared for threats that, while not as headline grabbing, are much more likely. The project to counter threat inflation is a “one‐​stop shop” for those seeking clarity on potential threats to U.S. national security. It features Cato’s extensive work on the topic, as well as fresh new content to counter the incessant fear‐​mongering by [what Micah Zenko and Michael Cohen call the “Threat‐​Industrial Complex.”](https://www.cato.org/events/clear-present-safety-world-has-never-been-better-why-matters-americans) From events and podcasts, to full‐​length policy analyses, the project to counter threat inflation aims to ameliorate fears by placing threats to U.S. national security in proper context. And we will call out examples of threat inflation, while praising those that offer an accurate, honest assessment of the dangers around us, or make note of our relative safety. If you have any examples of threat inflation (or of a comment worthy of praise), please email or direct message us on Twitter. If we use your example, you will receive a free book from the Cato Institute’s extensive library on threat deflation. Join the Conversation [\#threatinflation](https://x.com/hashtag/threatinflation) Share This Topic #### Featured Content [![US Troops with an American Flag](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/content_teaser/public/2019-12/GettyImages-1030486702.jpg?itok=RvooP_Gr)](https://www.cato.org/study/high-anxiety-how-washingtons-exaggerated-sense-danger-harms-us-all) Study ## [High Anxiety: How Washington’s Exaggerated Sense of Danger Harms Us All](/study/high-anxiety-how-washingtons-exaggerated-sense-danger-harms-us-all) By John Glaser and [Christopher A. Preble](https://www.cato.org/people/christopher-preble) [![green target pattern](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/content_teaser/public/2020-04/dangerous%20world%20background%402x-min.png?itok=mtqyxU0X)](https://www.cato.org/publications/publications/dangerous-world) Publications ### [A Dangerous World?](/publications/publications/dangerous-world) By [Christopher A. Preble](https://www.cato.org/people/christopher-preble) and [John Mueller](https://www.cato.org/people/john-mueller) Threat Perception and U.S. National Security Commentary ### [Threat Inflation and Its Consequences](/commentary/threat-inflation-its-consequences) By [Eric Gomez](https://www.cato.org/people/eric-gomez), [Christopher A. Preble](https://www.cato.org/people/christopher-preble), Lauren Sander, & [Brandon Valeriano](https://www.cato.org/people/brandon-valeriano) A sober assessment of the facts reveals the United States’ fortunate circumstances and, therefore, its ability to move towards a restrained strategy. blog ### [Reflections on “Delusions of Danger”](/blog/reflections-delusions-danger) By James Knupp The first few post-Trump years will be crucial: do we return to the same fearful delusions that led to war after war, or do we seek to improve U.S. policymaking? blog ### [Reflections on “Nuclear Alarmism: Proliferation and Terrorism”](/blog/reflections-nuclear-alarmism-proliferation-terrorism) By [John Mueller](https://www.cato.org/people/john-mueller) If destructive concerns about nuclear proliferation have not abated since 2014, there does seem to have been something of a diminishment in hysteria about nuclear terrorism. #### Experts ![John Glaser](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/bio_picture_mobile/public/2021-01/John%20Glaser.jpg?itok=prSTqZQh) ##### John Glaser Host, Power Problems Podcast [![John Mueller](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/bio_picture_mobile/public/2021-01/John%20Mueller.jpg?itok=FgHy7NGE)](/people/john-mueller) ##### [John Mueller](/people/john-mueller) Senior Fellow ##### Books [![A Dangerous World cover](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/aside_mobile/public/2019-10/9781939709417_FC.jpg?itok=R37wq1gX)](https://www.cato.org/books/dangerous-world) ### [A Dangerous World?](/books/dangerous-world) Threat Perception and U.S. National Security [![Media Name: terrorizingourselveswhyuscounterterrorismpolicyisfailingandhowtofixit.jpg](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/aside_mobile/public/books/terrorizingourselveswhyuscounterterrorismpolicyisfailingandhowtofixit.jpg?itok=WdPvfMJF)](https://www.cato.org/books/terrorizing-ourselves-why-us-counterterrorism-policy-failing-how-fix-it) ### [Terrorizing Ourselves](/books/terrorizing-ourselves-why-us-counterterrorism-policy-failing-how-fix-it) Why U.S. Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing and How to Fix It #### Historical Resources President Eisenhower delivers his farewell address and cautions against “unwarranted influence… by the Military‐​Industrial Complex.” ##### [Transcript of President Eisenhower’s Farewell Address](http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/eisenhower001.asp) By Dwight D. Eisenhower (1961) ##### [Address Delivered at the Request of the Committee for Arrangements for Celebrating the Anniversary of Independence](https://www.libertarianism.org/essays/address-delivered-request-committee-arrangements-celebrating-anniversary-independence) **By John Quincy Adams (1821)** Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well‐​wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. ##### [The Boy Who Cried Wolf](https://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/pdf/passage/375/aesops-fables-010-the-boy-who-cried-wolf.pdf) **By Aesop (~600 BC)** But this time the villagers, who had been fooled twice before, thought the boy was again deceiving them, and nobody stirred to come to his help. So the Wolf made a good meal off the boy’s flock, and when the boy complained, the wise man of the village said: “A liar will not be believed, even when he speaks the truth.