# Medicare on Track to Add $85 Trillion to the Natl Debt | New Cato Analysis 

Medicare’s financing problems extend well beyond its hospital insurance trust fund.

August 31, 2026 • News Releases 

Medicare’s financing problems extend well beyond its hospital insurance trust fund. In [new analysis](https://url.avanan.click/v2/r01/___https://zwly9k6z.r.us-east-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:*2F*2Fwww.cato.org*2Fblog*2Fmedicares-debt-problem-got-worse-year/1/010001a058e17274-f3e37bba-9600-4783-8960-180cda8389f9-000000/sIZW2lwmWqfmK-TRHP84xUBDWu8=473___.YXAzOmNhdG9pbnN0aXR1dGU6YTpvOmViMWQ3OWU2ZjI1NDI4NWUxY2FkYTg4OGQ4MDNkZTc0Ojc6NTgzZDo1NzA1NzJiZmE3Mjk2ZDU0MTc1NjAzMTgyOGUxMWQzMTAzN2QyN2IwNDg3NzhiZjZlOGMxY2NhYTk0ZDBlYjcyOmg6VDpO), the Cato Institute’s [**Romina Boccia**](https://url.avanan.click/v2/r01/___https://zwly9k6z.r.us-east-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:*2F*2Fwww.cato.org*2Fpeople*2Fromina-boccia/1/010001a058e17274-f3e37bba-9600-4783-8960-180cda8389f9-000000/rsPnhZiSwRj9Y0kNd4-XFZns_SA=473___.YXAzOmNhdG9pbnN0aXR1dGU6YTpvOmViMWQ3OWU2ZjI1NDI4NWUxY2FkYTg4OGQ4MDNkZTc0Ojc6MGE2Yjo2MjVhYWIxMWY4MzQ0YzFlZDlmNjRkMjA3YTc3N2E5OTFkOGZmYmM4MDBhNDA2YjdmYjEyNzM5YzVlM2E4MGI4Omg6VDpO) and **Ritvik Thakur** estimate that borrowing to finance Medicare Parts B and D could add roughly **$85 trillion to the national debt by 2056**, including interest costs.

![Medicare Debt is $85 trillion](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/pubs_2x/public/2026-08/medicare-debt-chart-16x9_0.png?itok=EHSiWgGf) 

Over just the next decade, Medicare’s doctors’ services, outpatient care, and prescription drug coverage are projected to add about **$10.7 trillion to the debt**, including interest, accounting for an estimated **44% of the federal deficit** over that period.

![SMI Accounts For 44 Percent of the 10-year deficit](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/pubs_2x/public/2026-08/smi-accounts-for-44-percent-of-the-10-year-deficit.png?itok=Vj3DARoA) 

The outlook is worsening quickly. Medicare Trustees now project **$731 billion more in Part D spending through 2035** than they did a year ago, driven largely by the Inflation Reduction Act’s prescription drug changes. Boccia and Thakur argue Congress should put Medicare on a budget rather than allow rising Parts B and D costs to flow automatically into federal debt.

You can read the full analysis [here](https://url.avanan.click/v2/r01/___https://zwly9k6z.r.us-east-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:*2F*2Fwww.cato.org*2Fblog*2Fmedicares-debt-problem-got-worse-year/2/010001a058e17274-f3e37bba-9600-4783-8960-180cda8389f9-000000/Yp1pG7bVJLYR_DGlSyHxz_S8wgg=473___.YXAzOmNhdG9pbnN0aXR1dGU6YTpvOmViMWQ3OWU2ZjI1NDI4NWUxY2FkYTg4OGQ4MDNkZTc0Ojc6ZTlhMzpiMGUyMjk0NGIwNzNiNGM3YzA2ZjAzOTFjYzMyNTQ5OWJmYjZjNTM5Mjg3ZDYyNzhiOWUyNGM2ZjZiNjVlYzY0Omg6VDpO). If you would like to speak with Romina about Medicare’s finances, prescription drug spending, or the program’s contribution to the national debt, please contact Cato PR at [pr@​cato.​org](mailto:pr@cato.org).

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