June 11, 2026 11:20AM # After a Year of High Tariffs, the US Goods Trade Deficit Has Barely Budged By [Scott Lincicome](https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome) and [Chad Smitson](https://www.cato.org/people/chad-smitson) --- SHARE Listen to this article Generated with [ ElevenLabs](https://elevenlabs.io/) AI technology. Loading the [Elevenlabs Text to Speech](https://elevenlabs.io/text-to-speech) AudioNative Player... ![trump tariffs](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/pubs_2x/public/2025-04/trump%20tariffs%20_0.jpg?itok=VxcgmgnU) (Getty Images) More than a year since “[Liberation Day](https://www.cato.org/blog/one-year-after-liberation-day-heres-what-we-know-what-we-dont),” the US trade deficit looks much the same—despite a historic increase in tariffs that were ostensibly intended to reduce it. As we’ve previously [discussed](https://www.cato.org/ieepa), most economists think that the trade deficit—especially the deficit for just goods—isn’t necessarily a problem for the United States and, being driven by big macroeconomic forces, won’t be fundamentally altered by tariffs alone. Nevertheless, the trade in goods deficit has been a major focus of President Trump’s ongoing tariff onslaught, and it’s therefore something we (reluctantly) need to monitor. Yesterday, [US Census / Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/) released the April 2026 trade balance data, giving us a full year to test the [president’s](https://www.bea.gov/) experiment. The data show little for the president to crow about—especially after accounting for pre-tariff import stockpiling and trade flows unrelated to tariffs (i.e., surging petroleum exports due to the Iran war and anomalous trade in non-monetary gold). **Figure 1** shows that, after adjusting for inflation, the US trade in goods deficit for April of this year was roughly at pre-tariff (2022–24) levels—and even larger after accounting for the aforementioned petroleum trade: ![Real U.S. Trade in Goods Deficit](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/pubs_2x/public/2026-06/khErO-real-u.s.-trade-in-goods-deficit-%20%281%29.png?itok=K--yPDcI) As we can see in **Figure 2**, moreover, substantial exports of non-monetary gold have recently cut billions from the nominal monthly trade deficit figures: almost $10 billion in April and even more in February and March. (The Census Bureau doesn’t provide the real figures with a gold breakout.) Since April of 2025, in fact, trade in nonmonetary gold—exports and imports—has collectively reduced the nominal US trade deficit by more than $100 billion. ![Trade Balance of Nonmonetary Gold](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/pubs_2x/public/2026-06/0Lpqz-trade-balance-of-nonmonetary-gold-.png?itok=bPkSTx4S) To repeat, most economists will tell you that the trade deficit is an inappropriate economic barometer and one that tariffs can’t change, regardless. The latest data appear to have proven them correct. ##### Related Tags [IEEPA Tariffs](https://www.cato.org/ieepa), [Trade Policy](https://www.cato.org/trade-policy) [![Creative Commons License](/build/cato_2020/images/creative-commons.svg)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) This work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).