April 29, 2026 9:35AM # The OBBBA and the Debt By [Jeffrey Miron](https://www.cato.org/people/jeffrey-miron) --- SHARE Listen to this article Generated with [ ElevenLabs](https://elevenlabs.io/) AI technology. Loading the [Elevenlabs Text to Speech](https://elevenlabs.io/text-to-speech) AudioNative Player... The current national debt is almost [$39 trillion](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny#:~:text=Total%20Public%20Debt%20Outstanding,-4/24/2026)—and rising. The [2025 One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text) has only made matters worse. [New research](https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/look-back-ahead-federal-budget) indicates that > federal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise substantially and inexorably over the next several decades under any plausible set of economic assumptions, with no natural turning point in sight. Assuming the > OBBBA’s temporary provisions expire as scheduled … maintaining the US federal debt-to-GDP ratio at 98 percent by 2054 would require permanent spending cuts or tax increases totaling $827 billion, beginning immediately. In the absence of spending cuts or tax increases, the next decade will see > deficits … increase by more than $4.2 trillion due to the OBBBA, a figure that rises to $5.5 trillion if its temporary spending and tax provisions are made permanent. … \[Also,\] federal debt will reach 183 percent of GDP by 2054, or 199 percent if its temporary provisions are made permanent. Not to worry—the current administration has a [plan to fix it](https://fortune.com/2026/04/28/trump-gold-card-visa-tariffs-revenue-national-debt/). *Cross-posted from* [*Substack*](https://jeffreymiron.substack.com/)*.* ##### Related Tags [Tax and Budget Policy](https://www.cato.org/tax-budget-policy) [![Creative Commons License](/build/cato_2020/images/creative-commons.svg)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) This work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).