# The Best Political Argument for More Immigration Restrictions Just Failed 

Republican politicians worry about immigrants becoming permanent Democratic voters.

November 8, 2024 • News Releases 

**Alex Nowrasteh and his colleagues** have spent a lot of time addressing the arguments raised by those who favor further [restricting legal immigration](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/0/0860e03d35e36692263a46f952d231587d324d6c9893694c6c9cca7d2c445dbb) to the United States. [Their research](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/1/7f62c42cee6f9ac2afd3cba9f5bb7346ce034a15a688a1b4ddce88971f17e199) on [terrorism](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/2/01e279442cd91f45303adaf64cd9ad90d39d0a1a84a5d85767c3b4614e283fb5), [crime](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/3/2295f8d22fe593e3bc93e065d457718701acc08f12b9845e814478d8d9c1cfaa), [economic](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/4/831a6b64f60df551add4bf36a2fdd01894f32f4bb7aaa3253bb2d305b0d2daaf), [fiscal](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/5/53b0763e4dc6a9d46b31196a35dcb658e2c31a3447f9d950439a638a316f37aa), [welfare consumption](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/6/58e3e66e88c68efc4623d7c58a87cd41ba8ba98e1c1ed25dec5f60756980fdd9), and [culture](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/7/eb0a5d66736490381fd8b027037d4c962629f93148adcc7db6a1d6a61dc5b93a) addresses [specific arguments](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/8/4c7fb716f3d505a52124661581a43439f95aae89a97a4d95b8b65967a7f28b38) against [liberalized immigration](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/9/2f3b9fa0c12b7095ec611069fd07aee1e1aac039b268e74e41dfdcccdb206dd5).

All those fit into a [bigger strategy](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/10/bfe0648ca6ef62f647d6938f71f03256fee8c804dfb7ed416f4cb9b376c93f7e) based on theories of why people are [opposed to immigration](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/11/66f891751116530c65fb6b620c9bedd80d284d38b485ad1a72283d60ca591498). They are the understandable [fear of border](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/12/3d032324f85fce4bf4c449d1bcbcc6e1786b09a897a2b05ca0941e602f9f544a) and [immigration chaos](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/13/637457f275dacc13c3da9e6877efd542336022ec7b14282e2d2c383923937616), [security concerns](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/14/10241a0f7e9318501c3d24c4611c6efe3c04452439f996f0fe93e5b816e79d38), and the untrue belief that the [legal immigration system](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/15/4f7116c7a3a9c5157ebf266260a520c8d002536736ba800ce9f893bda215202c) isn’t restrictive. Those concerns all explain much of the sharp move in [public opinion](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/16/ed36b6fa4bf65240058339ae515e2b5bff09f231827d2270713402a60c0e84c4) toward [immigration restrictionism](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/17/96e72ec11e4d2f4ef14b0b1a1f49ed6648c77073456b939b9536953334839a94) in the run-up to the 2024 election that many of us [saw rising years ago](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/18/94a227bb72469dfb6738cc0597d792ac1d86d7f621df70c95f210c2d7b089cb8).

**Political Concerns Over Immigration**:

- Republican politicians worry about immigrants becoming permanent Democratic voters.
- The “Demographics as Destiny” theory—often linked to conspiracy theories—suggests increased immigration benefits Democrats long-term.

**Shifts in Political Reality**:

- 2024 election showed a high percentage of Hispanic voters (46%) supporting Trump, challenging the belief that demographic changes guarantee Democratic dominance.
- Past predictions of inevitable Democratic gains due to immigration have proven inaccurate, with more balanced Hispanic voting patterns emerging.

**California’s Nativist Impact**:

- Anti-immigration politics in 1990s California, including Proposition 187, pushed the state toward Democratic dominance.
- However, this shift wasn’t replicated nationally; states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida with strict immigration laws have not experienced similar GOP declines.

**Assimilation and Party Affiliation**:

- Immigrants and their descendants are assimilating well and show diverse political opinions, not uniformly favoring Democrats.
- Ethnic and racial identities are fluid, weakening assumptions about permanent voting blocks based on ethnicity.

**Current Perspective**:

- The GOP’s anti-immigration stance has not had the expected negative impact on their performance.
- The author now believes that immigrant assimilation into American politics suggests that immigration is less of a political wedge than previously assumed.

Read the full analysis: [here](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/8cwm4x0pldnil670i75982pga/19/96b862846ccb699bdaa6c6450b4889d13b295c2c051ac16f7130c71f2f54175b)

If you would like to speak with Justin, please let us know:

Josh Grossman 
Cato Institute 
Executive Dir. Communications & Marketing 
[pr@​cato.​org](https://usw2.nyl.as/t1/265/21xqoztpmjtq76f1ck955y0e3/8/4d89e44071eefe8b7914b44bea0b7d991cc140f223a522a36d687fd2ed94d408)

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