# Trump Tariffs Face $70B Refund Threat 

The Supreme Court may force the U.S. to refund nearly half of the $70 billion in tariffs collected under Trump

September 8, 2025 • News Releases 

The Supreme Court may force the U.S. to refund nearly half of the $70 billion in tariffs collected under Trump — a move Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted would be “terrible for the Treasury.” But as Cato Institute’s Vice President of General Economics,[ Scott Lincicome](https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome) points out:

> “First of all, the potential hit to federal revenues shouldn’t be oversold. It’s estimated that the United States has collected only around $70 billion in IEEPA tariffs thus far, while total federal outlays (spending) were nine times that amount in July alone.” 
> He adds “Furthermore, experts from across the political spectrum have long cautioned against relying on IEEPA tariff revenues, because the law was so risky. In fact, I warned of this very thing in a May 2025 Washington Post [op-ed.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/26/trump-tariffs-revenue-big-beautiful-bill/)“ 
> 
> Finally, Lincicome says “if the tariffs are found to be illegal, then the cost and potential difficulty of refunding them is immaterial. No one — not even Uncle Sam — gets to keep money he stole because he already spent it.”

To reach Lincicome about this topic, or other trade related topics, please feel free to contact Emily Salamon at [esalamon@​cato.​org](mailto:esalamon@cato.org)

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