# The Great Debate 

October 23, 2012 • Commentary 

By [Christopher A. Preble](https://www.cato.org/people/christopher-preble) 

This article appeared on *[National Interest (Online)](http://www.nationalinterest.org)* on October 23, 2012 

The most telling moment of the debate might have been Romney’s inability to answer a basic question about his plans for military spending.

He surely must have known that such a question was likely. There have been a number of [recent](http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-22/romney-wouldn-t-meet-defense-spending-pledge-for-years) [articles](http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=924) about his promise to spend at least 4 percent of GDP on the Pentagon’s base budget, first articulated in a [defense and foreign-policy white paper](http://www.mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2011/10/american-century-strategy-secure-americas-enduring-interests-and-ideals) and reiterated [on his website](http://www.mittromney.com/issues/national-defense). Moderator Bob Schieffer asked, not unreasonably, “Governor… Where are you going to get the money?”

Romney replied that “we’re going to cut about 5 percent from the discretionary budget, excluding military,” and he invited Schieffer to “come on our website” to see “how we get to a balanced budget within 8 to 10 years.”

But Romney’s numbers don’t add up. According to the CBO’s latest [projections](http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43539-08-22-2012-Update_One-Col.pdf) (Table 1–3), nondefense discretionary spending over the next decade (2013–2022) will total $5.494 trillion. Five percent of that equals $274.7 billion. Sequestration would eliminate another $356 billion, assuming that he could push those cuts through Congress while protecting the Pentagon. According to [my most conservative estimate](https://www.cato.org/an-update-on-different-pentagon-spending-plans/), Romney’s 4 percent goal, assuming that he won’t actually reach it until the end of a second term, will generate $1.7 trillion in additional spending. Cutting domestic discretionary spending, therefore, doesn’t come close to covering the costs of Romney’s plans. So, I ask, “Governor, where are you going to get the money?”

But perhaps we were witnessing another [Etch A Sketch moment](http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/21/romney-gets-another-chance-to-sketch-out-centrist-/)? Romney said last night that he would not cut military spending, but he did not reiterate his 4 percent goal. Could it be that Romney is moving away from it?

One can only hope. It was [never smart to peg military spending to GDP](https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-defense-four-percent-smokescreen), and it was doubly foolish to pick an arbitrary number so completely oblivious to fiscal reality.

##### About the Author 

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##### [Christopher A. Preble](/people/christopher-preble)

Former Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies; Senior Fellow, Stimson Center 

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