# America Is Not Enduring an Epidemic of Political Assassinations The real danger isn’t the paltry political violence we’ve seen or are likely to, it’s the government’s overreaction. September 19, 2025 • Commentary By [Alex Nowrasteh](https://www.cato.org/people/alex-nowrasteh) This article appeared in [*USA Today*](https://www.usatoday.com/) on September 19, 2025. Americans fear that we’re in a period of increased politically motivated violence. Most recently, [conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/09/15/charlie-kirk-video-gen-z-mental-health/86113504007/) in cold blood on Sept. 10 at a university event in Utah. Republican [Gov. Spencer Cox](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/14/politics/video/utah-governor-cox-americans-political-violence-unity-digvid), independent [Sen. Bernie Sanders](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bernie-sanders-condemns-disturbing-rise-political-violence-after-charlie-kirks-assassination) and others reacted by condemning political violence. With the notable exceptions of President [Donald Trump](https://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/donald-trump/) and Vice President [JD Vance](https://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/jd-vance/), U.S. politicians are overwhelmingly exhorting Americans to tone down political polarization because it has caused such an unprecedented wave of violence. The only problem is that we’re not living in a period of unprecedented political violence. **America is not living through a budding civil war** The real danger isn’t the paltry political violence we’ve seen or are likely to, it’s the government’s overreaction. Calls for less violence are wise, and we’re all disgusted by Kirk’s death. He and his family deserve justice. Even so, we should not delude ourselves into thinking we’re living through a budding civil war. I should know: [I assembled data](https://www.alexnowrasteh.com/p/deadly-politically-motivated-violence) on [politically motivated terrorist attacks](https://www.alexnowrasteh.com/p/politically-motivated-violence-is) from roughly 20 sources. Terrorism is the other term for politically motivated killing by a non-state actor. Since 2021, only 75 people have been killed in politically motivated terrorist attacks in the United States. The deadliest attack was by Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who drove [a truck with an Islamic State flag](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/01/02/new-orleans-attack-suspect-shamsud-din-jabbar/77396433007/) into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, [killing 14 people](https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/neworleans/news/fbi-releases-investigative-update-in-bourbon-street-attack). Left-wing and right-wing terrorists killed 58 of the victims – 71% by the latter. Politically motivated terrorists killed more than 135 people from 2016 to 2020. The deadliest attack was again by an Islamist named Omar Mateen, who [fatally shot 49 people at a nightclub](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/01/05/orlando-pulse-gunman-wife-knew-attack-plans-statement-fbi/1008079001/) in Florida in 2016. The second deadliest was the right-winger and White nationalist Patrick Crusius, who [murdered 23 in a shooting in El Paso](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/04/21/el-paso-texas-shooting-walmart-pleads-guilty/83195417007/) in 2019. In those five years, 72 of the killed victims were by right- and left-wing terrorists, with, again, about 70% being right-wing attacks. If the health of political violence were measured on a heart monitor, then we’d pronounce the patient dead. My research shows that overall, attacks by right- and left-wing terrorists only account for about 0.06% of nationwide homicides since 2021. Terrorist killings are not more left-wing than ever; they’ve been about steady or maybe a bit higher since 2016. Right-wing terror victims are higher in total, but are possibly down a bit in the past two years. What about those killed in the riots that started in response to the police killing of George Floyd in 2020 – aren’t those politically motivated? I looked at the [19 most prominent deaths](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/18/fact-check-more-black-people-killed-police-than-floyd-protests/5323116002/). They were opportunistic crimes or other results from riots without political motivations. Furthermore, it’s contrary to my classification scheme and ideals of justice to count a looter shot by a property owner in defense of his fee as a victim of left-wing terrorism. **Political reaction to a minor threat will do far more harm** History shows that assassinations of prominent figures can be destabilizing. The killings of John Kennedy, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. caused some of the tumult of the 1960s because they were prominent men. That could have happened again, but it hasn’t yet despite attempts on President Trump’s life during his 2024 reelection campaign. The biggest worry from politically motivated terrorism is that the political reaction to a minor threat will do far more harm. The [USA PATRIOT Act](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ll/what_is_the_patriot_act.pdf), increased airport security measures and every war after 9/11 provided enough evidence of that. Now we have Vice President Vance and White House adviser Stephen Miller [promising political retribution](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/15/trump-plans-crackdown-on-left-wing-groups-after-charlie-kirk-shooting/86166121007/?utm_source=usatoday-onpolitics-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baselinegreeting&utm_term=newsletter-greeting&utm_content=usat-8872UT-nletter18) based on the [laughable assertion that Kirk asked them to](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/09/15/stephen_miller_we_will_uproot_and_dismantle_terrorist_networks_that_led_to_charlie_kirk_assassination.html). The unambiguous statistical point we can make is that there just aren’t that many people killed in politically motivated attacks. Each one is a tragedy, the victims deserve justice, and we should be glad that most politicians are condemning violence. Nonetheless, fear does not justify exaggerating the degree of politically motivated violence. We must endeavor to prize truth over discomforting lies. The real danger isn’t the paltry violence we’ve seen or are likely to, it’s the government’s overreaction. ##### About the Author [![nowrasteh_cropped](/sites/cato.org/files/styles/author_picture/public/2026-05/nowrasteh_cropped.jpg?itok=uGYxzEPS)](/people/alex-nowrasteh) ##### [Alex Nowrasteh](/people/alex-nowrasteh) Senior Vice President for Policy, Cato Institute [ ](https://x.com/AlexNowrasteh) [ ](mailto:anowrasteh@cato.org)