Good News for Earth Day: A Negative Result from Ocean Acidification

In 2012, Stanford’s Daniele Fanelli published a provocative paper, “Negative Results are Disappearing in Most Disciplines and Countries” in the prestigious about-science journal Scientometrics. It demonstrated a remarkable increase in the number of papers reporting “positive” results, meaning those that found data in support of a prior hypothesis.

The reasons are manifold and in part to do with the way that we fund science. Research proposals usually include some statements of hypotheses that serve as the rationale for funding. For example, one might hypothesize that global warming will increase heat-related death, reduce crop yields, or cause wars. And, almost always, the funded scientists will find evidence to support each hypothesis.

Part of this has to do with the way agencies dole out the dough. There’s usually a meeting of five or so folks who wade through maybe a hundred proposals. There’s general discussion about which ones are worth funding, often centering around objectives and hypotheses. Upon funding, research that does not support a funded hypothesis will threaten a grant renewal.

“Ocean Acidification” will be, in our humble opinion, the next in a long line of ends-of-the-worlds that we have come to be used to. Global cooling, acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion, tropospheric ozone increases, and global warming come to mind, in sequential order, soon to be followed by ocean acidification as our environmentalist friends become frustrated with any real meaningful policies to forestall our heretofore torpid warming.

Oddly enough, there are vast areas of the central Atlantic and Pacific oceans with naturally very low pH, or relative acidity, compared to the rest of the sea, and their relative acidity changes are large, compared to any small changes that humans have foisted on the ocean. Given that there’s often considerable biodiversity in these regions, isn’t it odd that virtually all research findings show ocean acidification to be deleterious? Kloekel (2010) performed a meta-analysis of nearly 600 findings and found approximately 97% deleterious results. That only 3% were salutary seems odd on a world where ocean pH naturally varies so much.

A recent “exception” was just published—deVries et al. (2016) in Scientific Reports. They set out to “examine the long-term effects of moderate increases in pCO2 and temperature” on the stress physiology and the hard exoskeleton of shrimp. It is a standard meme that decreasing pH, in general, is bad for hard-shelled organisms. They varied the pH and the temperature in a controlled laboratory setting. The working hypothesis was that lowered pH (more “acidic”) along with high temperature would elicit a stress response and render the shell more brittle.

Didn’t happen. Contrary to their initial thinking, the mantis shrimp exhibited an “apparently large tolerance range for changes in environmental pH and temperature.” More specifically, they found that “N. bredini showed no changes in growth, molting, enzymatic and protein indicators of oxidative stress, exoskeleton morphology, calcium content, or mechanical properties in response to experimental pH and temperature stressors,” which findings, in their words, suggest “that this species has evolved compensation mechanisms to cope with significant environmental change.” And if this one species has developed compensation mechanisms, it is not an illogical stretch to assume that other intertidal species have done so too.

Consequently, alarmist concerns for the future well-being of marine life in response to the twin evils of ocean acidification and warming are tempered (again) by observations showing that life tends to find a way to cope with the many challenges it faces.

 

References:

deVries, M.S., Webb, S.J., Tu, J., Cory, E., Morgan, V., Sah, R.L., Deheyn, D.D. and Taylor, J.R.A. 2016. Stress physiology and weapon integrity of intertidal mantis shrimp under future ocean conditions. Scientific Reports 6: 38637, DOI:10.1038/srep38637.

Kroeker, K.J., et al, 2010. Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms.  Ecology Letters, (2010) 13: 1419–1434 doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01518.x

Corporate Tax Cuts: Canada’s Experience

President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are proposing to cut the corporate tax rate. With any tax cut, members of Congress want to know how much revenue the government may lose from the reform. I do not think that cutting our 35 percent federal corporate tax rate to 20 percent or so would lose the government any money over the long term. U.S. and foreign corporations would invest more in the United States, which would boost our economy, and corporations would avoid and evade taxes less.

Canada provides us with a real-world trial run of corporate tax cuts, and new budget data includes the latest revenue estimates. The nation slashed its federal corporate tax rate from 38 percent in the mid-1980s, to 29 percent by 2000, to 15 percent by 2012, as shown in Chart 1 below. Has the government lost revenue?

You be the judge. Chart 2 shows that corporate tax revenues in Canada have fluctuated with the ups and downs in the economy—revenues fell, for example, during recessions in the early 1990s and 2009. But even with the modest Canadian economic growth of recent years, revenues have held up under a much lower rate. Corporate tax revenues are 2.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) today, which is a bit higher than in the mid-1980s when the rate was more than twice as high.

Let’s compare to the United States. While Canada’s 15 percent federal corporate tax will raise 2.1 percent of GDP this year, the 35 percent U.S. federal corporate tax will raise just 1.7 percent. Thus, the Canadian corporate tax raises relatively more than the U.S. tax—even though the rate is less than half the U.S rate.

 

 

Canada historic tax revenues here. New Canadian budget data here.

 

Internet Speech 2016: More Regulation Needed?

Election law expert Nathaniel Persily has written an interesting article about the Internet and the 2016 election. The problems Nate (and others) see in 2016 will inform the debate about free speech now and in future elections.

Persily notes that the 2016 campaign saw an “online explosion of campaign-relevant communication from all corners of cyberspace.” Here’s his description of the Trump campaign’s social media efforts:

Employing traditional web-based communication, event promotions, new apps, native advertising (in which web ads are designed to look like articles in the publication containing them), and new uses of social media, the campaign launched 4,000 different ad campaigns and placed 1.4 billion web impressions (meaning ads and other communications visible to individual users)…the campaign targeted 13.5 million persuadable voters in sixteen battleground states, discovering the hidden Trump voters, especially in the Midwest, whom the polls had ignored.”

Trump himself tweeted a great deal, having 13 million followers by election day. But the mainstream media also picked up the tweets and prompted wide discussion and attention to them. Trump garnered about $4 billion in free media during the primaries and the general election, an astonishing sum. The new media thus drove the agenda for the mainstream media; in the past, the latter shaped the agenda for everyone.

From a First Amendment perspective, 2016 saw more speech by more people than previous elections. The election also showed that you can win the White House without dominating fundraising, an outcome that weakens the case for campaign finance regulation. Both results seem good for free speech.

However, Nate Persily is a learned and sensible analyst, and his concerns about 2016 merit our attention.

Protections on Steel Hurt Downstream Exporters

It has been widely reported that President Trump may impose high tariffs on steel imports on national security grounds. Scott Sumner has a good summary on why this rationale is not particularly convincing. But even if President Trump is not persuaded by Sumner on national security, perhaps he will be interested to hear how protectionism will affect the other manufacturing industries he purports to want to flourish.

Last year, a paper by economist Bruce Blonigen explored the impact of industrial policies in steel on downstream industries, i.e. those where steel is an input to the production process. Unsurprisingly, less openness to foreign competition through direct protection or state support or privileges raises the price of steel within a country. This in turn raises costs for downstream industries such as fabricated metals and machinery manufacturers.

More pertinently given Trump’s obsession with trade deficits, Blonigen’s work suggests the effect of this cost increase is to significantly reduce exports from these industries. The headline result is that a one standard deviation increase in industrial policies associated with steel leads to a 1.2 percent decline in the export competitiveness of the average manufacturing sector in the years immediately after implementation. For those that use steel intensively, the decline is as large as 6 percent.

If President Trump really wants an export-led manufacturing jobs boom then, his steel policies are utterly self-defeating.

Supreme Court Reaffirms the Presumption of Innocence

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court decided a relatively small but important case out of my home state of Colorado. Colorado, like many states, imposes certain monetary penalties and costs on convicted defendants. Those can include court costs, docket fees, and payments into victim restitution funds. What happens, however, if a defendant’s conviction is later overturned, either by a higher court or on a re-trial? Can the once-convicted defendants easily get their money back, as would seem to be only fair? Not in Colorado, which is (was) unique in requiring that exonerated defendants go to court again to prove their innocence by clear and convincing evidence before they could get their money back. Thankfully, the Supreme Court, in a 7-1 opinion (Justice Gorsuch only began participating in cases in the last two weeks), held that Colorado’s “Exoneration Act” violates the due process guarantee of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Nelson v. Colorado is a combination of two different cases. One concerned Shannon Nelson, who was convicted by a jury of two felonies and three misdemeanors arising from the alleged sexual and physical abuse of her four children. Nelson conviction was reversed on appeal, however, and on retrial she was acquitted of all charges. In the course of her ordeal, Nelson paid $8,192.50 in costs and fees.

Louis Madden, the petitioner in the other case, was convicted of patronizing a child prostitute and third-degree sexual assault. His conviction was later overturned by the Colorado Supreme Court, and the state declined to retry the case. Madden paid the state $1,977.75 in the course of his legal troubles.

Although Madden and Nelson were innocent of their crimes in the eyes of the law–remember everyone is innocent until proven guilty by a legally proper trial (Cato’s brief in the case focused on the deep historical roots of the presumption of innocence)–they were faced with having to prove their innocence in a subsequent civil proceeding if they were to get their money back. Instead, they went all the way to the Supreme Court, arguing that it was unconstitutional to require them to do anything more to prove their innocence.

Writing for the Court, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg made fairly short work of Colorado’s law. “The sole legal basis for these assessments was the fact of Nelson’s and Madden’s convictions,” she wrote, and “absent those convictions” Colorado has “no legal right to exact and retain petitioners’ funds.” Once the convictions were erased, “the presumption of their innocence was restored” and “Colorado may not presume a person adjudged guilty of no crime, nonetheless guilty enough for monetary exactions.”

Eighteen Years After Columbine, What Have We Learned About Spree Shootings?

Eighteen years ago today, Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris walked into Columbine High School and murdered 12 students and a teacher, as well as injuring dozens more people. The mayhem ended when the two killers took their own lives as police closed in.

The massacre, perpetrated with guns and rudimentary explosives, created a political firestorm. Music, video games, and especially guns became lightning rods for outrage and demands for new legislation. The controversy re-energized gun control advocates and spawned Michael Moore’s award-winning anti-gun film Bowling for Columbine. Hundreds of new gun control bills were introduced, although few became law.

Subsequent school shootings, such as Virginia Tech in 2007 and Newtown, Connecticut in 2012, have generated similar cycles of gun control fervor followed by demands for new laws, but the fundamental debate remains the same: what can we do to effectively mitigate the risk of such tragedies?

In 2015 David Kopel attempted to answer this question by analyzing the efficacy of the types of gun control proposals that are so common after school shootings, including magazine bans, universal background checks, and assault weapons bans. He found little evidence that gun control legislation has been or could be effective at preventing spree shootings.

From the summary:

Although universal background checks may sound appealing, the private sale of guns between strangers is a small percentage of overall gun sales. Worse, the background check bills are written so broadly that they would turn most gun owners into criminals for innocent acts — such as letting one’s sister borrow a gun for an afternoon of target shooting.

Magazine bans are acts of futility because the extant supply is enormous. Today, magazines of up to 20 rounds for handguns, and 30 rounds for rifles, are factory standard, not high-capacity, for many of the most commonly owned firearms. These magazines are popular with law-abiding Americans for the same reason they are so popular with law enforcement: because they are often the best choice for lawful defense of one’s self and others.

Gun-control advocates have been pushing for a ban on assault weapons for more than 25 years. This proposal is essentially a political gimmick that confuses people. That is because the term is an arbitrarily defined epithet. A federal ban was in place between 1994 and 2004, but Congress declined to renew it after studies showed it had no crime-reducing impact.

What has occasionally proven effective at stopping spree shootings is the armed self-defense of would-be victims or bystanders.  Kopel notes, for instance, that shootings at Pearl High School in Mississippi and at Appalachian School of Law in Virginia were halted by armed bystanders.

Highly motivated killers who plan their attacks weeks or months in advance (as Klebold and Harris did) have an inherent advantage over their unarmed victims, and are unlikely to ever be deterred by criminal penalties. The best examples of these crimes being stopped in their tracks are examples of armed defense, not legislative preemption.

Notably, the Columbine tragedy did produce one effective policy change, but it wasn’t about guns. 

At the time of the shooting, standard police procedure for an active shooting situation was for the officer on the scene to cordon off the area and await the arrival of a SWAT team or other specialized unit to handle the crisis.

Yes, Randi Weingarten, Public Schooling Is an Innovation “Dead End.” Just Watch School Inc.

Today education secretary Betsy DeVos is paying a visit to an Ohio public school at the invitation of one of her most vociferous critics, and one of the most ardent opponents of school choice: American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten. The AFT is the second largest teachers union in the country, and Weingarten has repeatedly complained that DeVos has called public schools—institutions heavily influenced by union power—a “dead end.” One purpose of the invitation is to prove otherwise.

So are public schools dead ends? Of course not. Tens of millions of children attend them every year, and most will do fine in their lives. Of course, most likely would do well no matter where they went to school, and probably at a fraction of what we currently pay. But DeVos did not actually say that the schools themselves were dead ends. She said that the public schooling system—a government monopoly—is a dead end for entrepreneurship and innovation. “We are the beneficiaries of start-ups, ventures, and innovation in every other area of life, but we don’t have that in education because it’s a closed system, a closed industry, a closed market,” DeVos said in a 2015 speech. “It’s a monopoly, a dead end.”

Is DeVos right? To see for yourself, watch Andrew Coulson’s School Inc., now showing on PBS stations around the country. Why we have so little innovation in education is the central point of the highly engaging documentary. Coulson examines education and other industries both historically and around the modern world, and illustrates that freedom for people who make things, or perform services such as teaching, coupled with paying customers and an ability to make a profit—yes, a profit!—are the keys to unleashing innovation at scale, to the benefit of all.

At the touch of a screen, you and I can now listen to tens-of-thousands of different pieces of music stored on a device that also makes telephone calls, lets you play video games, empowers you to surf the Internet, and much more. That is a quantum leap from how we listened to music even just a couple of decades ago. Yet education is pretty much the same instructor-in-front-of-kids model it has been for centuries.

Apple, HTC, Samsung, all work for profits. Public schools? Not so much.

Essentially, profit shows that something is in demand—that freely choosing people find it of value—and that others could make money by producing something similar, or better. This takes innovation to scale while driving prices down. Not only is that not evil, as emotionally charged critiques of profit imply, it is a classic win-win!

Today’s DeVos-Weingarten confab is likely to be a nice show for public schools, illustrating that they are not dead ends. But DeVos did not say they were, and what she did say—a government monopoly suffocates innovation—is grounded in extremely well documented—and documentary—reality.

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