State-Sponsored Visa Criticisms Aren’t Grounded in Facts

At a Cato event last week, Sen. Ron Johnson announced that he would be introducing new legislation that day to allow states to sponsor foreigners to live and work in their states. The innovative idea has produced a huge amount of interest and responses. Several business and conservative groups endorsed the bill. Sen. John McCain cosponsored it. Positive write-ups ran online in the Washington Post, The Week, and other outlets. The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and the Economist have all run articles supporting Congress taking this approach.

However, the organizations that are categorically opposed to all additional immigration—NumbersUSA and Center for Immigration Studies*—as well as a National Review columnist have also responded with some criticisms. I will focus primarily on the criticisms that are specifically related to guest worker programs or state-sponsored visas in particular. Their criticisms arrive primarily from their flawed reading of the bill, assuming that they did read it.

Campus Speech and Progressivism

Jeffrey Herbst, the President and CEO of the Newseum, recently released a report about free speech on campus. It is brief and well worth reading.

Herbst believes we are missing the major problem exposed by recent attacks on free speech at universities.

Systematic public opinion polling and anecdotal evidence suggests, however, that the real problem of free expression on college campuses is much deeper than episodic moments of censorship: With little comment, an alternate understanding of the First Amendment has emerged among young people that can be called “the right to non-offensive speech.” This perspective essentially carves out an exception to the right of free speech by trying to prevent expression that is seen as particularly offensive to an identifiable group, especially if that collective is defined in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, or sexual identity. The crisis is not one of the very occasional speaker thrown off campus, however regrettable that is; rather, it is a generation that increasingly censors itself and others, largely silently but sometimes through active protest.

Many people believe university students have adopted a “right to non-offensive speech” under the influence of their leftwing professors who are hostile to libertarian values. But Herbst shows that high school students and their teachers are equally doubtful about protecting speech that offends. He notes, “young adults come to campus with some fairly well-developed views that explain much of what subsequently occurs as they confront challenging speech.”

Jeffrey Herbst notes that young people support free speech in theory but not, as we have seen with Murray and others, in particular cases. In the past polls showed that while the First Amendment in the abstract received near unanimous support, its applications to unpopular speakers sometimes failed to attract a majority. Maybe the boomers were different, and young people now are returning—ironically enough—to views held by pre-boomers.

Allan H. Meltzer: A Life Well Lived (1928-2017)

The world lost a great champion of liberty with the passing of Allan Meltzer, a longtime Professor of Political Economy at Carnegie Mellon University.  Allan was a prodigious worker who wrote hundreds of articles and more than ten books, including his monumental A History of the Federal Reserve and more recently Why Capitalism?  The latter provides a strong defense of limited government, the rule of law, private property and free markets, which he saw as the surest means to increase the wealth of nations.

A Passion for Ideas and Policy

Allan had a passion for ideas and a desire to influence policy; he sought to make the world a better place by safeguarding economic and personal freedom. He became a major player in the marketplace for ideas — writing, teaching, advising policymakers, serving on editorial boards, co-founding the Shadow Open Market Committee with his close colleague and lifelong friend Karl Brunner, acting as president of the Mont Pelerin Society founded by F. A. Hayek, chairing the International Financial Institution Advisory Commission (also known as the “Meltzer Commission”), and participating in numerous conferences. He continued working right up until his death on May 8, at the age of 89.

A Giant in Monetary Economics

I first met Allan in the early 1980s, when he began to participate in Cato’s Annual Monetary Conference. His paper “Monetary Reform in an Uncertain Environment” was delivered at the first conference, in January 1983, and published in the Cato Journal later that year; it was reprinted in The Search for Stable Money (University of Chicago Press, 1987), a book I co-edited with Anna J. Schwartz.

In that article, Allan examined alternative monetary regimes and their implications for reducing risk and uncertainty. He sought a rule-based regime that would minimize uncertainty and best allow markets to flourish. He preferred, at the time, a quantity rule that would have the monetary base grow in line with the growth of real output adjusted for changes in the velocity of base money. Such a rule, he argued, would anchor expectations regarding the path of nominal income and achieve long-run price stability. However, the rule had to be credible and be supplemented with a fiscal rule that limited the taxing and spending powers of government. He did not want the Fed to finance government deficits or to allocate credit.

The High Cost of E-Verify

Former House Ways and Means Committee staffer Joanne Butler wrote a recent piece calling for greater use of E-Verify to fight illegal immigration. Like other pieces advocating for the massive expansion of this government-run employment verification program, Butler’s presents a rosy view of E-Verify that is at odds with the reality. E-Verify remains an ineffective program that promises much, accomplishes little, and is dangerous to citizens and non-citizens alike.

E-Verify is still based off of Reagan-era employment verification forms. After collecting I-9 tax forms from employees, the employer enters the information into a government website. The system compares these data with information held in Social Security Administration (SSA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) databases. SSA data is then used to check the validity of the Social Security number while DHS checks immigration status.

If both databases decide that the data are valid then it approves the employee for work. A flag raised by either database returns a tentative non-confirmation that requires the employee and employer to sort out the error. These errors can range from the simple (a misspelled name) to the complex (such as the system flagging a Social Security number as fake or already in use). The employer and the employee must correct these errors, eating up valuable labor hours and resources. The current I-9 form costs employers an estimated 13.48 million man-hours each year, while 46.5 percent of contested E-Verify cases took longer than eight working days to resolve. A hypothetical nationwide E-Verify mandate would sacrifice many millions more work hours on the altar of immigration enforcement.

E-Verify’s errors and inaccuracies are far too frequent and notoriously difficult to actually measure. The last major survey of E-Verify’s accuracy rates was published in 2012.  According to that last survey, 54 percent of unauthorized workers were incorrectly found to be work authorized due to E-Verify’s reliance on documents presented by the workers themselves. This makes it easy to fool E-Verify: the system checks the validity of documents but does little to check the veracity of documents.

Global Science Report: Sea Ice Expansion in the Southern Hemisphere Is Real and Driven by Falling Temperatures

While there’s been thousands of legacy media stories about the very real decline in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, we can’t find one about the statistically significant increase in Antarctic sea ice that has been observed at the same time.

Also, comparisons between forecast temperature trends down there and what’s been observed are also very few and far between. Here’s one published in 2015:

Observed (blue) and model-forecast (red) Antarctic sea-ice extent published by Shu et al. (2015) shows a large and growing discrepancy, but for unknown reasons, their illustration ends in 2005.

Observed (blue) and model-forecast (red) Antarctic sea-ice extent published by Shu et al. (2015) shows a large and growing discrepancy, but for unknown reasons, their illustration ends in 2005.

For those who utilize and trust in the scientific method, forming policy (especially multi-trillion dollar policies!) on the basis of what could or might happen in the future seems imprudent. Sound policy, in contrast, is best formulated when it is based upon repeated and verifiable observations that are consistent with the projections of climate models. As shown above, this does not appear to be the case with the vast ice field that surrounds Antarctica.

According to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CO2-induced global warming will result in a considerable reduction in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Specifically, the report predicts a multi-model average decrease of between 16 and 67 percent in the summer and 8 to 30 percent in the winter by the end of the century (IPCC, 2013). Given the fact that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by 20 percent over the past four decades, evidence of sea ice decline should be evident in the observational data if such model predictions are correct. But are they?

Thanks to a recent paper in the Journal of Climate by Josefino Comiso and colleagues, we now know what’s driving the increase in sea-ice down there. It’s—wait for it—cooling temperatures over the ocean surrounding Antarctica.

A Monetary Policy Primer, Part 10: Discretion, or a Rule?

A Class Camping Trip

Forget about monetary policy for a moment or two, and imagine, instead, that you’re back in 6th grade. You and your classmates are about to go on a camping trip, involving some strenuous hiking, and lasting several days.

Somehow, your teacher must see to it that all of you are kept well fed. To do so, she plans to appoint one of you Class Quartermaster. The school’s budget is limited, and rations can get heavy, so there will only be so much food to go around — so many hotdogs, baked beans, scrambled eggs, peanut butter sandwiches, and granola bars. The Quartermaster’s job will be to make sure it all gets divvied-up fairly and efficiently.

The catch is that your classmates are a motley bunch. Pete Smith, the football team captain, is even taller than the teacher, and otherwise built like an old oak tree. His body goes through fuel like a small steam locomotive. Mary Beth Johnson, on the other hand, looks like a gust of wind might carry her off, and eats so little that she doesn’t mind Peter grabbing her grilled cheese sandwich on tomato soup day. The rest generally fall between those two extremes. But just how several days of hiking will affect all their needs is anybody’s guess.

Still the food has got to be rationed somehow. And the class must decide how before a drawing of straws determines who will be Quartermaster. Will it be Jane “Goody Two Shoes” Miller, the teachers’ pet, or Wesley “The Weasel” Jones, who, though never caught red-handed, is widely suspected of cheating on his tests? Or could it — perish the thought! — turn out to be the ravenous Pete Smith himself? Whatever the choice, the class will have to live with it once the straw poll has been taken.

After some discussion, the class decides to vote for one of two options for rationing the food. The first is to simply let the Quartermaster dole out food according to his or her best judgement. That option will allow the limited provisions to be used as efficiently as possible, with Pete Smith getting the bigger helpings he needs, and Mary Beth getting less, assuming that less suffices. The second option is to insist that the Quartermaster give equal rations to everyone, big, small, or in-between. That’s bound to be inefficient, of course. Still, it can easily beat having Wesley or Peter decide!

So, which option will you vote for? If you settle for the first, you favor a “discretionary” rationing policy; if the second, you favor a rationing “rule” over discretion.

Allan Meltzer Remembered

Like Allan Meltzer, I received my Ph.D. from UCLA. He and his major professor, Karl Brunner, had both left by the time I arrived. UCLA is an important intellectual connection. At the time, UCLA was informally known as “Chicago West,” for its intellectual affinity to the University of Chicago Economics Department.

The characterization was misleading if not wrong. UCLA was where Chicago and Vienna (the Austrian School) intersected. UCLA’s professors and their students were influenced by both traditions. That explains positions taken by them over the years on many issues. For instance, in their work, Brunner and Meltzer adhered to a conception of Knightian (after Frank Knight) or true uncertainty. That type of uncertainty is not readily modeled with definitive results.

For a long time, I had minimal interaction with Allan. When he came to Washington, D.C., to begin writing his multi-volume history of the Federal Reserve System, however, that began to change. AEI supported the research, and its president, Chris DeMuth, provided Allan with an office and association. Early on, Allan invited me over to AEI for lunch.

Importantly, he began inviting me to attend the meetings of the Shadow Open Market Committee as an observer. They were very instructive and illuminating. Aside from the substance, I marveled at his performance as Chairman. Getting academics to agree is like herding cats. Allan had the skill.

Later, I worked at the Heritage Foundation. Ed Feulner, Heritage’s President, was appointed to the Congressionally mandated International Financial Institutions Advisory Commission (IFIAC). In the wake of multiple global financial crises, Congress wanted a review of the IMF, World Bank, and other international agencies. The Commission’s original Chairman withdrew before the Commission began meeting. Ed asked my advice on a replacement. Without hesitation, I replied “Allan Meltzer.” “Why?” I was asked. “He can herd cats,” I replied.

Allan accepted on the condition I would be his Chief of Staff. Now I had two full-time jobs, each with lots of overtime.

Allan’s domination of the Commission soon led the press to rename IFIAC as “The Meltzer Commission.” From the beginning, Allan was determined that the commission would arrive at a nonpartisan set of recommendations. The membership had 6 Republican and 5 Democratic members and was expected to divide along those partisan lines.

Because of an informal alliance the Chairman struck with Jeffrey Sachs, the deliberations of the Commission were largely nonpartisan. With a few exceptions, the deliberations were conducted in a collegial atmosphere. The final vote was 8-3 in favor of the findings. It was a remarkable result because the Democratic members were under extreme pressure not to sign the majority report. It was all a testimony to the Chairman’s remarkable political skills.

Allan passed away early Tuesday. He will be remembered. He will be missed.

[Cross-posted from]