October 9, 2026 3:02PM # The War in Ukraine Is Not Ending Anytime Soon By [Benjamin Giltner](https://www.cato.org/people/benjamin-giltner) --- SHARE Listen to this article Generated with [ ElevenLabs](https://elevenlabs.io/) AI technology. Loading the [Elevenlabs Text to Speech](https://elevenlabs.io/text-to-speech) AudioNative Player... Russia is escalating its war against Ukraine, killing at [least 30 Ukrainian civilians](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c875pwq134l3o) during an October 8 glide bomb attack on two public buses. Rightly, most of the world is outraged. Civilians, tragically, are always killed in wars. But deliberately targeting them is another thing altogether. What this outrage means, unfortunately, is that this war will not end anytime soon. Anger is a [major catalyst](https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691018546/on-war) for wars, and Ukrainians are [angry](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=CAESlAEB6zswFZpYMQ1cyw3sdzhINzeV3ur4d7-FsXsmheIxVYcqG3uV7aFB-xS57a_a1YrGlhajSeuwI0Uh7B7y71aJlkjvdK-mrwWBZstpwp5M7zSdItJHb8WFPWnWvmKaWtYKkhU3KWSGYWnJNAbvqFNX2jja8cRsSMPLQnPiE9HSWVTS-FFyQGvYvk_c17srYBaznBHY&ved=2ahUKEwi0jtLKrq2XAxV3K1kFHRpfN48QFnoECCEQAQ&uoh=2&usg=AOvVaw2rhe9EBoBegFAQaWyAOKkP). It’s unclear what the Kremlin’s calculation was in carrying out this strike, perhaps chalked up to growing desperation on the Russian side. Yet bombing civilians doesn’t break a people’s morale and will to fight; in fact, such acts usually [strengthen that will](https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Psychological-Cost-Learning-Society/dp/0316040932). This is a messy war that will require a messy peace deal. It won’t happen quickly like the Trump administration [prefers](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/17/world/europe/trump-ukraine-war-putin.html), and it won’t end by pursuing either of two extremes: flattering Putin or threatening him. The answer lies somewhere in between. [Compromise](https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP71464.html) *on all sides*—Russian, Ukrainian, European, and American—is necessary. Maybe an arbiter other than the United States is needed to help settle this war. What is clear, however, is that the Kremlin’s decision to bomb civilians will not bring this war any closer to ending. ##### Related Tags [International](https://www.cato.org/international), [Defense and Foreign Policy](https://www.cato.org/defense-foreign-policy) [![Creative Commons License](/build/cato_2020/images/creative-commons.svg)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) This work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).