Topic: International Economics, Development & Immigration

Cities Notice Decline in Latino Crime Reporting Post-Trump

Sir Robert Peel

Effective policing requires that crime witnesses and victims contact the police and that citizens trust law enforcement. Without such trust and communication crimes go unsolved, criminals run free, and victims live in fear. Sadly, it looks as if the Trump administration’s immigration rhetoric could have prompted a chilling effect on Latino crime reporting. 

The father of modern policing, the British statesman Sir Robert Peel, understood how important public approval of the police is in order for police officers to effectively do their jobs. Peel founded London’s Metropolitan Police Force in 1829. The force issued new officers with copies of “General Instructions,” which included the “Peelian Principles” of effective policing.* The second Peelian principle urges officers

To recognise always that the power of the police to fulfil their functions and duties is dependent on public approval of their existence, actions and behaviour and on their ability to secure and maintain public respect. 

Although written for officers in London, the Peelian Principles migrated to the states, where now former New York Police Department Commissioner William J. Bratton featured them on his blog and they continue to be favorably cited by law enforcement and public safety officials.

Jeff Sessions Pulls Back on Bullying Sanctuary Cities

Throughout his presidential campaign Donald Trump pledged to defund so-called “Sanctuary Cities.” Since his election the president and his administration have had to backpedal on this commitment thanks to serious constitutional issues with such a proposal. Recent news that Attorney General Jeff Sessions has narrowed the category of funds that can be withheld from sanctuary cities as well as the definition of sanctuary jurisdictions is good news for constitutionalists and federalists who oppose the federal government bullying cities and states.

Before unpacking Sessions’ recent memo it’s worth taking a look at the Trump administration’s actions against “Sanctuary Cities,” a term that has no legal meaning but is usually used to describe cities and localities where local officials have decided not to assist with federal immigration enforcement.

On January 25, President Trump signed Executive Order 13768: Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States. Section 9 of this executive order is the “sanctuary” section and reads, in part (emphasis mine):

Sec. 9. Sanctuary Jurisdictions. It is the policy of the executive branch to ensure, to the fullest extent of the law, that a State, or a political subdivision of a State, shall comply with 8 U.S.C. 1373.

(a) In furtherance of this policy, the Attorney General and the Secretary, in their discretion and to the extent consistent with law, shall ensure that jurisdictions that willfully refuse to comply with 8 U.S.C. 1373 (sanctuary jurisdictions) are not eligible to receive Federal grants, except as deemed necessary for law enforcement purposes by the Attorney General or the Secretary. The Secretary has the authority to designate, in his discretion and to the extent consistent with law, a jurisdiction as a sanctuary jurisdiction. The Attorney General shall take appropriate enforcement action against any entity that violates 8 U.S.C. 1373, or which has in effect a statute, policy, or practice that prevents or hinders the enforcement of Federal law.

There is a good argument that 8 U.S.C. 1373 is unconstitutional. 8 U.S.C. 1373 is a prohibition on a prohibition, banning local governments from preventing police departments from sending or receiving immigration status information to or from federal immigration authorities. This law potentially runs afoul of the 10th Amendment’s “anti-commandeering” doctrine, which bans the federal government from compelling local officials into enforcing federal law.

Paul Krugman on Pump-Priming and Trump

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman recently chided President Trump for imagining he invented the metaphor of “priming the pump” during an Economist interview. Yet Krugman, like Trump, buys into the premise that budget deficits really do “stimulate” total spending or “aggregate demand” which is commonly measured by growth of Nominal GDP (NGDP).

Economic booms and busts clearly have huge effects on budget deficits, but where is the evidence that deficits and surpluses have their own separate (“exogenous”) effect on NGDP? 

To isolate cause and effect, we have to take out the “endogenous” effects that ups and downs in the economy have on taxes and spending. That is why the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)estimates budget deficits or surpluses (divided by GDP) without automatic stabilizers, which has traditionally been called the “cyclically-adjusted” budget. I will label it the “C-A Deficit” for short.  

CA Deficit and NGDP

The red line in the graph shows the CBO’s Cyclically-Adjusted (C-A) deficit or surplus as a share of GDP. The blue line shows the percentage growth in Nominal GDP (NGDP). 

From 1965 to 2016, the C-A Deficit averaged -2.7% of GDP, and growth of nominal GDP averaged 6.6%.

Contrary to 1960s Keynesian orthodoxy, the graph and table reveal no connection between the size of cyclically-adjusted deficits or surpluses and the rate of growth of aggregate demand (NGDP).  From 1991 to 2001, for example, the C-A Budget swings from an average deficit to a sizable surplus with essentially no change in the pace of NGDP growth. 

There is no measurable or even visible connection between larger CA-Deficits and faster NGDP growth in 2009-2012, nor between budget surpluses and slower NGDP growth in 1998-2000.  For more than 50 years, our experience has frequently been the opposite of what demand-side fiscalism predicts. This is not just a short-term phenomenon.

Greek Anarchists Provide Services the State Doesn’t

In the New York Times, Niki Kitsantonis writes, “It may seem paradoxical, but Greece’s anarchists are organizing like never before.”

No. Anarchists – the sensible ones, at least – are not against organization. They are against rule – against ruling and against being ruled. Merriam-Webster explains the derivation of the word: “Medieval Latin anarchia, from Greek, from anarchos having no ruler, from an- + archos ruler.” True, as the dictionary editors note, “anarchy” and “anarchism” are sometimes used to mean something like “absence or denial of any authority or established order” or simply “absence of order.” But rational political theorists and even activists don’t advocate pure disorder; they advocate the absence of rule, which they define as the absence of government

So what is it that these Greek anarchists are organizing for? Well, in fact, the focus of the article is on how anarchists are supplying the services that the Greek state is not providing:

Seven years of austerity policies and a more recent refugee crisis have left the government with fewer and fewer resources, offering citizens less and less. Many have lost faith. Some who never had faith in the first place are taking matters into their own hands, to the chagrin of the authorities….

Whatever the means, since 2008 scores of “self-managing social centers” have mushroomed across Greece, financed by private donations and the proceeds from regularly scheduled concerts, exhibitions and on-site bars, most of which are open to the public. There are now around 250 nationwide.

Some activists have focused on food and medicine handouts as poverty has deepened and public services have collapsed.

In recent months, anarchists and leftist groups have trained special energy on housing refugees who flooded into Greece in 2015 and who have been bottled up in the country since the European Union and Balkan nations tightened their borders. Some 3,000 of these refugees now live in 15 abandoned buildings that have been taken over by anarchists in the capital.

One part of Athens seems to have been a self-governing, but not state-governed, territory for some time. Some sources say Exarchia has existed since as early as 1870. The name presumably comes from “ex-,” out of, away from, and of course “archos,” ruler.

New Bill Would Fix a Major Problem for High-Skilled Immigrants

Senator Ron Johnson, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, introduced a bill this month that would resolve a major concern for high-skilled temporary workers in the United States. It would allow them to change jobs, get promotions, or start businesses while waiting in line for permanent residency. It would also prevent their children who grew up in the country from being forced to leave if they reach adulthood before their parents become permanent residents. 

The legislation (S. 1040) would create a large number of temporary three-year work visas that would allow foreign workers, entrepreneurs, or investors to live and work in a state that sponsors them. States could sponsor people of all skill types and from any industry. They could renew their status if the state wanted to invite them back. Their employers could also sponsor them for permanent residency (“green cards”) under the existing immigration programs.

In some ways, the program has similar features to the H-1B visa, which is a three-year renewable work visa for high-skilled foreign workers sponsored by a U.S. employer. Employers also have the option of sponsoring H-1Bs for green cards, which allows workers to extend their H-1B status indefinitely until they receive a green card.

As I have written before, however, one problematic provision of the H-1B visa is that those workers whom employers sponsor for a green card cannot change jobs or even receive certain promotions without losing their place in the green card line. H-1Bs also cannot be self-employed or start their own businesses. Because the green card line has a century-long wait for certain workers due to the per-country limits, these rules effectively bind them to their employer and their current position indefinitely. It prevents them from contributing to the economy to their fullest potential.

Statement on H.R. 2431 - A Bill to Criminalize Millions of Peaceful People

Statement for the Record of the Cato Institute[1]
Submitted to the House Committee on the Judiciary
Markup on
“H.R 2431 - Michael Davis, Jr. and Danny Oliver in Honor of State and Local Law Enforcement Act”
Thursday, May 18, 2017

The Michael Davis, Jr. and Danny Oliver in Honor of State and Local Law Enforcement Act (H.R. 2431) purports to empower states and localities to take action against serious criminals who have violated immigration law.[2] In reality, the bill is a vehicle for a massive expansion of the federal government and of federal power over states and their citizens.

The legislation imposes new mandates on states and uses federal grants to coerce them into following the bidding of the federal authorities. These requirements undermine the federalist system that the Founders intended. Even where it does grant certain state agencies greater powers, it does so while undermining the authority of the state legislatures. It authorizes state and local law enforcement personnel to enforce immigration laws without any authorization from their state legislature to do so and without any training.

The powers that it authorizes will inevitably lead to violations of the civil liberties and privacy of ordinary Americans. Any state official who suspects someone of violating immigration law can demand that they prove their status in the United States and hold them if they fail to do so – all without so much as a request from the federal agencies. It grants states access to federal surveillance databases that include U.S. citizens, compromising Americans’ privacy.

Its provisions that criminalize illegal presence and ordinary status violations would unnecessarily turn millions of peaceful people into criminals and push America further down the road of overcriminalization. This bill would impose billions of dollars in costs on taxpayers with very little benefit.[3]

E-Verify Has Delayed or Cost Half a Million Jobs for Legal Workers

E-Verify is a government national identification system that employers currently use voluntarily to screen out unauthorized immigrant workers. Members of Congress want to make the program mandatory for all employers with the Legal Workforce Act, which has passed the House Judiciary Committee three times. This legislation would be the largest employer regulation in terms of scale in the history of the United States, applying to every single employer and every single worker in the country and also roping in several agencies to run it. 

The system has already proven remarkably ineffective at its intended purpose—keeping unauthorized workers away from jobs. In fact, in many cases, it does the opposite—keeping authorized workers away from employment. While many have focused on how making it mandatory would increase the number of these errors, E-Verify is already causing headaches and costing jobs for legal workers.  In fact, from 2006 to 2016, legal workers had about 580,000 jobs held up due to E-Verify errors, and of these, they lost roughly 130,000 jobs entirely due to E-Verify mistakes.

Here’s how E-Verify catches innocent people. The system checks information all workers must provide on their I-9 forms against the databases of either the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for legal immigrants or the Social Security Administration (SSA) for U.S. citizens. If the system fails to verify this information, it will issue a “tentative nonconfirmation” (TNC). People who receive a TNC must challenge it within two weeks or it turns into a “final nonconfirmation” (FNC), and the employer must fire them.

Legal workers can receive an erroneous TNC for a variety of reasons. Employers may have put their information into the system incorrectly. This is especially common for hyphenated names or individuals with multiple last names. It can also happen if someone changes their name, but SSA or DHS has failed to update their entry in the database. Errors can also occur when SSA or DHS employees enter a person’s information into the database.

Whatever the case, the employee has an affirmative duty to fix the issue. They must formally contest the error. If they are a citizen, they need to physically visit a Social Security Administration office to figure out the problem. If they are a legal foreign worker, they need to go to DHS. This process can take months because the worker has no idea what the problem is. In 2012, it took more than 8 days to resolve a TNC for more than a third of all legal workers who received one.

Unfortunately, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data fails to report in more detail how long these took to resolve, which could potentially have taken months. For workers who need to submit a Privacy Act request to obtain their records, it can take more than three months even to obtain a response, let alone fix the underlying problem. As the Table below highlights, from 2006 to 2016, legal workers had to overcome 450,039 tentative nonconfirmations. Under the Legal Workforce Act, employers could condition employment based on an E-Verify confirmation, meaning all of these workers would lose weeks or months of wages. If the job was temporary, they could lose it entirely.

Table: E-Verify Cases and Errors, 2006 to 2016

Year

Total Cases TNC % Overcome TNCs Overcome Erroneous FNC % FNC Errors Total Error % Total Errors

2006

1,743,654

0.78%

13,513

0.50%

8,733

1.28%

22,246

2007

3,271,871

0.63%

20,449

0.33%

10,925

0.96%

31,374

2008

6,648,845

0.45%

29,920

0.20%

13,195

0.65%

43,114

2009

8,717,711

0.30%

26,153

0.13%

11,182

0.43%

37,335

2010

16,458,448

0.30%

49,375

0.09%

13,998

0.39%

63,373

2011

16,612,333

0.28%

46,515

0.08%

13,187

0.36%

59,701

2012

20,205,359

0.26%

52,534

0.07%

14,893

0.33%

67,427

2013

23,937,505

0.22%

52,663

0.05%

10,838

0.27%

63,500

2014

27,074,552

0.19%

51,442

0.04%

11,235

0.23%

62,677

2015

30,538,992

0.18%

54,970

0.04%

11,082

0.22%

66,052

2016

32,815,564

0.16%

52,505

0.03%

10,144

0.19%

62,649

Total

188,024,834

 

450,039

 

129,411

 

579,450

Sources: Total cases (2006-2014): U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, “E-Verify History and Milestones,” January 19, 2017. TNC share overcome (2011-2016): U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), “E-Verify Program Statistics – Performance.” USCIS archived pages. E-Verify Erroneous TNC and FNC rates (2006-2010): Westat, “Evaluation of the Accuracy of E-Verify Findings,” July 2012. (Note FNC error rate in Westat expressed in terms of share of FNCs.)

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