Topic: Energy and Environment

Climate Modeling Dominates Climate Science

Computer modeling plays an important role in all of the sciences, but there can be too much of a good thing. A simple semantic analysis indicates that climate science has become dominated by modeling. This is a bad thing.

What we did

We found two pairs of surprising statistics. To do this we first searched the entire literature of science for the last ten years, using Google Scholar, looking for modeling. There are roughly 900,000 peer reviewed journal articles that use at least one of the words model, modeled or modeling. This shows that there is indeed a widespread use of models in science. No surprise in this.

However, when we filter these results to only include items that also use the term climate change, something strange happens. The number of articles is only reduced to roughly 55% of the total.

In other words it looks like climate change science accounts for fully 55% of the modeling done in all of science. This is a tremendous concentration, because climate change science is just a tiny fraction of the whole of science. In the U.S. Federal research budget climate science is just 4% of the whole and not all climate science is about climate change.

In short it looks like less than 4% of the science, the climate change part, is doing about 55% of the modeling done in the whole of science. Again, this is a tremendous concentration, unlike anything else in science.

We next find that when we search just on the term climate change, there are very few more articles than we found before. In fact the number of climate change articles that include one of the three modeling terms is 97% of those that just include climate change. This is further evidence that modeling completely dominates climate change research.

You Ought to Have a Look: Badges, Ratings and Rewards

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Badges? Do we need these stinking badges?

Need, perhaps not, but apparently some of us actually want them and will go to lengths to get them. We‘re not talking about badges for say, for example, being a Federal Agent At-Large for the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs:

 

(source: Smithsonianmag.org)

But rather badges like these, being given out by the editors of Psychological Journal for being a good data sharer and playing well with others:

A new paper, authored by Mallory Kidwell and colleagues, examined the impact of the Psychological Journal’s badge/award system and found it to be quite effective at getting authors to make their data and material available to others via an open access repository. Compared with four “comparison journals,” the implementation of the badge system at Psychological Journal led to a rapidly rising rate of participation and level of research transparency (Figure 1).

An Absence of Ocean Acidification Impacts on Two Marine Copepods

Copepods are small crustaceans and encompass a major group of secondary producers in the planktonic food web, often serving as a key food source for fish. And in the words of Isari et al. (2015), these organisms “have generally been found resilient to ocean acidification levels projected about a century ahead, so that they appear as potential ‘winners’ under the near-future CO2 emission scenarios.” However, many copepod species remain under-represented in ocean acidification studies. Thus, it was the goal of Isari et al. to expand the knowledge base of copepod responses to reduced levels of seawater pH that are predicted to occur over the coming century.

To accomplish this objective, the team of five researchers conducted a short (5-day) experiment in which they subjected adults of two copepod species (the calanoid Acartia grani and the cyclopoid Oithona davisae) to normal (8.18) and reduced (7.77) pH levels in order to assess the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on copepod vital rates, including feeding, respiration, egg production and egg hatching success. At a pH value of 7.77, the simulated ocean acidification level is considered to be “at the more pessimistic end of the range of atmospheric CO2 projections.” And what did their experiment reveal?

In the words of the authors, they “did not find evidence of OA effects on the reproductive output (egg production, hatching success) of A. grani or O. davisae, consistent with the numerous studies demonstrating generally high resistance of copepod reproductive performance to the OA projected for the end of the century,” citing the works of Zhang et al. (2011), McConville et al. (2013), Vehmaa et al. (2013), Zervoudaki et al. (2014) and Pedersen et al. (2014). Additionally, they found no differences among pH treatments in copepod respiration or feeding activity for either species. As a result, Isari et al. say their study “shows neither energy constraints nor decrease in fitness components for two representative species, of major groups of marine planktonic copepods (i.e. Calanoida and Cyclopoida), incubated in the OA scenario projected for 2100.” Thus, this study adds to the growing body of evidence that copepods will not be harmed by, or may even benefit from, even the worst-case projections of future ocean acidification.

 

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Not Leading to Colder Winters

Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

Although it’s a favorite headline as people shiver during the coldest parts of the winter, global warming is almost assuredly not behind your suffering (the “warming” part of global warming should have clued you in on this).

But, some folks steadfastly prefer the point of view that all bad weather is caused by climate change.

Consider White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) head John Holdren. During the depth of the January 2014 cold outbreak (and the height of the misery) that made “polar vortex” a household name, OSTP released a video featuring Holdren telling us that “the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak, is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues.” 

At the time we said “not so fast,” pointing out that there were as many (if not more) findings in the scientific literature that suggested that either a) no relationship exists between global warming and the weather patterns giving rise to mid-latitude cold outbreaks, or b) the opposite is the case (global warming should lead to fewer and milder cold air outbreaks).

The Competitive Enterprise Institute even went as far as to request a formal correction from the White House. The White House responded by saying that the video represented only Holdren’s “personal opinion” and thus no correction was necessary. CEI filed a FOIA request, and after some hemming and hawing, the White House OSTP finally, after a half-hearted search, produced some documents. Unhappy with this outcome, CEI challenged the effort and just this past Monday, a federal court, questioning whether the OSTP acted in “good faith,” granted CEI’s request for discovery.

In the meantime, the scientific literature on this issue continues to accumulate. When a study finds a link between human-caused global warming and winter misery, it makes headlines somewhere. When it doesn’t, that somewhere is usually reduced to here.

You Ought to Have a Look: 2016 Temperatures, Business-as-Usual at the UN, and the Cost of Regulations

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

We sign in this week with a look at how this year’s global temperature is evolving as the big Pacific El Niño begins to wane. The temporary rise in global temperature that accompanies El Niño events is timed differently at the surface than it is in the lower atmosphere. Thus, while El Niño-boosted warmth led to a record high value in the 2015 global average surface temperature record, it did not fully manifest itself in the lower atmosphere (where the 2015 temperatures remained well below record levels).

America’s Socialized Transit

On the heels of a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) report that found that Washington Metro “has failed to learn safety lessons” from previous accidents, Metro general manager Paul Wiedefeld will announce a plan today that promises to disrupt service for months in an effort to get the lines safely running again. While ordinary maintenance can take place during the few hours the system isn’t running every night, Wiedefeld says past officials have let the system decline so much that individual rail lines will have to be taken off line for days or weeks at a time to get them back into shape.

The Washington Post blames the problems on “generations of executives and government-appointed Metro board members, along with Washington-area politicians who ultimately dictated Metro’s spending.” That’s partially true, but there are really two problems with Metro, and different parties are to blame for each.

First is the problem with deferred maintenance. The Metro board recognized that maintenance costs would have to increase as long ago as 2002, when they developed a plan to spend $10 billion to $12 billion rehabilitating the system. This plan was ignored by the “Washington-area politicians who ultimately dictated Metro’s spending” and who decided to fund the Silver and Purple lines instead of repairing what they already had.

Second is the problem with the agency’s safety culture, or lack of one. According to the NTSB report, in violation of its own procedures, Metro used loaded passenger trains to search for the sources of smoke in the tunnels. Metro at first denied doing so, then said it wouldn’t do it any more. But Metro’s past actions sent a signal to employees that passenger safety isn’t important.

The Shallow Back Reef Environment of Ofu, American Samoa

Writing as background for their work, the six-member research team of Koweek et al. (2015) cite several concerns about the future of Earth’s corals that have been projected to result from the so-called twin evils of global warming and ocean acidification, including “coral bleaching (Glynn, 1993; Hughes et al., 2003; van Hooidonk et al., 2013), increased dissolution and bioerosion (Andersson and Gledhill, 2013; Dove et al., 2013; Reyes-Nivia et al., 2013), decreased biodiversity (Fabricius et al., 2011), and shifts toward algal-dominated reefs (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Kroeker et al., 2010; 2013).” However, despite these concerns, which have captured the attention of scientists and policy makers for more than two decades now, such worries may well be overestimated and overplayed.

The reason for such growing optimism has to do with the corals themselves, which along with other marine organisms appear to have an inherent ability “of controlling their own biogeochemical environments.” Such biologically-mediated controls, if they are of sufficient magnitude, could potentially offset future changes in the marine environment brought about by rising atmospheric CO2 (projected ocean warming and pH decline). It is therefore of considerable importance for scientists to continue investigating these biological feedbacks in order to better ascertain the future of these precious marine species, for as noted by Koweek et al., “the paradigm of coral reefs as passive responders to their biogeochemical environments is rapidly changing.”

In further expanding the scientific knowledge on this important topic, the six American researchers set out to conduct a “short, high-resolution physical and biogeochemical pilot field study” on the back reefs of Ofu, American Samoa, where they measured a number of hydrodynamic and biogeochemical parameters there over a seven-day period in November, 2011. The specific study location was Pool 100 (14.185°S, 169.666°W), a shallow lagoon containing 85 coral species and various kinds of crustose coralline algae and non-calcifying algae. Koweek et al. selected Pool 100 because, as they state, shallow back reefs “commonly experience greater thermal and biogeochemical variability owing to a combination of coral community metabolism, environmental forcing, flow regime, and water depth.”

Results of their data collection and analysis revealed that temperatures within the shallow back reef environment were consistently 2-3°C warmer during the day than that observed in the offshore environment. In addition, and as expected, the ranges of the physical and biogeochemical parameters studied in Pool 100 greatly exceeded the variability observed in the open ocean. Inside Pool 100, the pH values fluctuated between a low of 7.80 and a high of 8.39 across the seven days of study, with daily ranges spanning between 0.5 and 0.6 of a unit (Figure 1). What is more, Koweek et al. report that the reef community in Pool 100 spent far more time outside of the offshore pH range than within it (pH values were between 8.0 and 8.2 during only 30 percent of the observational period, less than 8.0 for 34 percent of the time and greater than 8.2 for the remaining 36 percent of the observations). Additional measurements and calculations indicated that these fluctuations in pH were largely the product of community primary production and respiration, as well as tidal modulation and wave-driven flow.

Figure 1. Time series of pHT (top panel) and pCO2 (bottom panel) in Pool 100, Ofu, American Samoa from November 16-20, 2011. Vertical blue and orange lines show the occurrence of high and low tides, respectively. Gray vertical shading shows the period from sundown to sunrise. The different colored circles represent data that were collected from different locations in Pool 100 and the dashed horizontal black lines represent the mean value of each parameter in the offshore ocean. Adapted from Koweek et al. (2015).

Figure 1. Time series of pHT (top panel) and pCO2 (bottom panel) in Pool 100, Ofu, American Samoa from November 16-20, 2011. Vertical blue and orange lines show the occurrence of high and low tides, respectively. Gray vertical shading shows the period from sundown to sunrise. The different colored circles represent data that were collected from different locations in Pool 100 and the dashed horizontal black lines represent the mean value of each parameter in the offshore ocean. Adapted from Koweek et al. (2015).

Commenting on these and other of their findings, Koweek et al. write that “our measurements have provided insight into the physical–biogeochemical coupling on Ofu.” And that insight, they add, “suggests a significantly more nuanced view of the fate of coral reefs” than the demise of global reef systems that is traditionally forecast under the combined stresses of climate change and ocean acidification.

Indeed, if these ecosystems presently thrive under such variable (and more severe) environmental conditions than those predicted for the future—which conditions are largely derived and modulated by themselves—why wouldn’t they persist?

 

References

Andersson, A.J. and Gledhill, D. 2013. Ocean acidification and coral reefs: effects on breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification. Annual Review of Marine Science 5: 321-348.

Dove, S.G., Kline, D.I., Pantos, O., Angly, F.E., Tyson, G.W. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. 2013. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 110: 15342-15347.

Fabricius, K.E., Langdon, C., Uthicke, S., Humphrey, C., Noonan, S.H.C., De’ath, G., Okazaki, R., Muehllehner, N., Glas, M.S. and Lough, J.M. 2011. Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Nature Climate Change 1: 165-169.

Glynn, P.W. 1993. Coral reef bleaching: ecological perspectives. Coral Reefs 12: 1-17.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A. and Hatziolos, M.E. 2007. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318: 1737-1742.

Hughes, T.P., Baird, A.H., Bellwood, D.R., Card, M., Connolly, S.R., Folke, C., Grosberg, R., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jackson, J.B.C., Kleypas, J.A., Lough, J.M., Marshall, P., Nystrom, M., Palumbi, S.R., Pandolfi, J.M., Rosen, B. and Roughgarden, J. 2003. Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301: 929-933.

Koweek, D.A., Dunbar, R.B., Monismith, S.G., Mucciarone, D.A., Woodson, C.B. and Samuel, L. 2015. High-resolution physical and biogeochemical variability from a shallow back reef on Ofu, American Samoa: an end-member perspective. Coral Reefs 34: 979-991.

Kroeker, K.J., Kordas, R.L., Crim, R.N. and Singh, G.G. 2010. Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. Ecology Letters 13: 1419-1434.

Kroeker, K.J., Kordas, R.L., Crim, R.N., Hendriks, I.E., Ramajo, L., Singh, G.S., Duarte, C.M. and Gattuso, J.-P. 2013. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Global Change Biology 19: 1884-1896.

Reyes-Nivia, C., Diaz-Pulido, G., Kline, D.I., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Dove, S.G. 2013. Ocean acidification and warming scenarios increase microbioerosion of coral skeletons. Global Change Biology 19: 1919-1929.

van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J.A. and Planes, S. 2013. Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nature Climate Change 3: 508-511.