Tag: Trump Administration

Of Guns and Immigrants

Free society came under attack twice this month, first when Islamists rammed a van into pedestrians and went on a knife-slashing rampage in the Southwark district of London, and then when a gunman opened fire on Republican lawmakers in the Del Rey neighborhood of Northern Virginia.

In both cases, police had barely begun their investigations when an American politician—first the Republican president, then a Democratic governor—seized on the carnage to advocate political causes via electronic media.

In the hours after the London attack, President Trump took to Twitter to push his administration’s proposed travel ban on people from several predominantly Muslim countries:

Then, in the first police briefing on the Del Rey shooting, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe called for expanded gun control:

It’s reasonable for a politician to advocate policies that he thinks will reduce future recurrences of a fresh tragedy. However, Trump’s immigration proposals are supported by people who typically oppose McAuliffe’s gun control proposals, and McAuliffe’s are supported by people who typically oppose Trump’s. This is puzzling because the proposals themselves are remarkably similar: they would constrain individuals’ freedoms in an effort to improve public safety. So why do the two proposals get such different responses from different people?

It’s not that there’s a big difference in the risk to public safety posed by immigrants or guns. Both have proven to be harmful, in the sense that both immigrants and guns have caused violence. But the risk posed by the typical gun or immigrant is tiny.

More on the Rhetoric and Reality of Trump’s Trade Policy

If you did not see President Trump’s press conference yesterday, you might want to watch.  It was quite the spectacle.  His statements on “Buy America” issues may not have been the highlight of the event, but they raise some interesting questions.  Here’s what he said:

We have also taken steps to begin construction of the Keystone Pipeline and Dakota Access Pipelines. Thousands and thousands of jobs, and put new buy American measures in place to require American steel for American pipelines. In other words, they build a pipeline in this country, and we use the powers of government to make that pipeline happen, we want them to use American steel. And they are willing to do that, but nobody ever asked before I came along. Even this order was drawn and they didn’t say that.

… And I’m reading the order, I’m saying, why aren’t we using American steel? And they said, that’s a good idea, we put it in. 

I mentioned this issue on this blog a couple weeks ago.  As I pointed out then, Trump is saying that he put measures in place to require pipeline companies to use American steel, but the Presidential memo he signed does not, in fact, do this.  Instead, it instructs the Secretary of Commerce, as part of an inter-agency consultation, to “develop a plan” under which pipelines “use materials and equipment produced in the United States, to the maximum extent possible and to the extent permitted by law.”

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Flynn’s Fast Fall

Michael Flynn’s resignation as National Security Advisor is good news, mostly because it makes it slightly less likely that the Trump administration will blunder into a foolish war, especially with Iran. It won’t be the end of the scandal though, as it is hard to believe that the President was totally unaware of Flynn’s actions.

Flynn’s fall is surprising only for its speed. Since he gained prominence as a Joint Special Operations Command intelligence officer in Iraq for helping to develop the “find, fix, and finishmethod of seizing or killing suspected insurgents and terrorists, Flynn has, to put it mildly, showed a deficit of the sound judgment needed in a National Security Advisor.

As head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Flynn apparently pushed analysts to hype Iran’s malign influence and to find evidence that it had a hand in the 2011 Benghazi attack, feuded with senior staff, demonstrated hostility to dissent, favored conspiracy theories, and got fired for some combination of those things and generally poor management.

He wrote an overwrought book with Michael Ledeen which includes various dubious and unsubstantiated claims, especially about Iran, including that it is allied against the United States with jihadists, North Korea, China, Russia, Syria, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.

In his speech at last year’s Republican National Convention, Flynn essentially accused Hillary Clinton of treason for her email server debacle, despite his own dubious record in handling classified information. And, while receiving classified intelligence briefings along with Trump, Flynn was secretly employed as a lobbyist for Turkish interests, a fact that he hid while taking Turkey’s line in an op-ed endorsing the extradition of Fethullah Gulen. Around that time, Trump was attacking lobbyists and subsequently pretended to bar them from his administration.

Elliott Abrams to the State Department? Baffling.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has weighed in concerning the rumors that Elliott Abrams could become the Number 2 person at the State Department. “Crack the door to admit Elliott Abrams,” Paul writes, “and the neocons will scurry in by the hundreds.”

He goes on:

Neoconservative interventionists have had us at perpetual war for 25 years. While President Trump has repeatedly stated his belief that the Iraq War was a mistake, the neocons (all of them Never-Trumpers) continue to maintain that the Iraq and Libyan Wars were brilliant ideas. These are the same people who think we must blow up half the Middle East, then rebuild it and police it for decades.

Paul continues:

I voted for Rex Tillerson for secretary of state because I believe him to have a balanced approach to foreign policy. My hope is that he will put forward a realist approach. I don’t see Abrams as part of any type of foreign policy realism.

And he concludes:

In a country of 300 million people, surely there are reasonable foreign policy experts who have not been convicted of deceiving Congress and actually share the president’s foreign policy views. I hope Secretary Rex Tillerson will continue the search for expert assistance from experienced, non-convicted diplomats who understand the mistakes of the past and the challenges ahead.

During an appearance on the Tucker Carlson Show on FoxNews last night (clip starts at 5:23), the Republican was asked about his concerns.

“Someone who was a Never-Trumper should never be in a Trump State Department,” Sen. Paul said, noting that “Elliott Abrams was one of the key architects of the Iraq war. We don’t need people with a failed policy back in.”

Host Carlson admitted to being “baffled by it.”

Elliott Abrams was one of the leading supporters of the Iraq War. He signed the original statement of principles for the Project for a New American Century, the organization founded by leading #NeverTrumpers William Kristol and Robert Kagan that was instrumental in making the case for regime change in Iraq. Abrams has since signed a number of other letters organized by PNAC and its successor organization, the Foreign Policy Initiative, concerning war with Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya and Syria.

Why would Donald Trump want Abrams in the State Department? And why would Rex Tillerson want someone like Abrams as his deputy?

Like Carlson said: It’s baffling.

You Ought to Have a Look: Interview with Will Happer

You Ought to Have a Look is a regular feature from the Center for the Study of Science.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

In a bit of a departure from our typical YOTHAL recipe, where we highlight three or four items from around the web that we found worthy of recommending to you for additional scrutiny, this week we highlight just a single, albeit somewhat lengthy, article that we feel is worth dedicating your time to. The article takes the form of an in-depth interview with Dr. William Happer, emeritus Department of Physics professor at Princeton University (and Cato Adjunct Scholar). It was conducted by TheBestSchools.org as part of their “Focused Civil Dialogues” series, with the topic being global warming. Although the interview was conducted last summer, it has received renewed attention lately as Happer’s name has come up as a good choice for President Trump’s science advisor. It is therefore a good example of the kind of tone that the incoming Administration could set on the topic of human-caused climate change.

During the interview, TheBestSchools and Happer work through the flow chart below, from top to bottom. Each step along the way, including the introduction featuring Happer’s personal history and accomplishments, is an interesting read featuring numerous anecdotes to back his well-thought out and thorough reasoning on why carbon dioxide emissions should not be vilified or regulated (at the same time being an ardent supporter of government actions to restrict/reduce real forms of pollution). The interview exudes history, including historical examples of the dangers and downfalls of political intervention in science and restrictions placed on scientific inquiry.

New SEC Chief Criticized Foreign Anti-Bribery Law. Good.

“Trump’s pick for SEC chair criticized U.S. anti-bribery enforcement in 2011 as too zealous,” gasps one tweet reacting to President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Sullivan & Cromwell attorney Jay Clayton to head the Securities and Exchange Commission. In a subhead, the WSJ says Clayton “criticized SEC and [Department of] Justice handling of Foreign Corrupt Practices Act as overly aggressive.”

Good! Clayton is right to voice such criticisms. As I’ve argued in this space, the 1977 FCPA “is a feel-good piece of overcriminalization that oversteps the proper bounds of federal lawmaking in at least four distinct ways, any of which should have prevented its passage”: it is extraterritorialvicariouspunitive, and vague. It is not clear that a more carefully drafted law would have been a good idea; my Cato colleague Jeffrey Miron writes that while curtailing Americans’ involvement in overseas corruption may be a well-intentioned goal, FCPA “discourages U.S. companies from doing business abroad in the first place,” is readily circumvented in many situations, fails to distinguish between the most corrosive forms of bribery and those in which favors to officials are “an attempt to get around laws that make little sense in the first place”—such as restrictions on entering markets—and leaves some countries to welter in poverty if they cannot fix a local culture of baksheesh.

All of this was made worse by the Obama administration’s decision to step up the pace of FCPA prosecution, which ran into a series of rebukes from federal judges throwing out high-profile cases. Allegations of FCPA violations led to a great furor about Wal-Mart’s operations in Mexico that mostly fizzled later, while other prosecutions have been based on purported corruption oddly reminiscent of practices that go on right here in the U.S. without anyone prosecuting, such as Western banks’ alleged practice overseas of hiring young relatives of influential persons, something that has been known to happen in politics and the media here in Washington, D.C.

Don’t back down, Mr. Clayton.

Questions for Wilbur Ross

Inside U.S. Trade reports that there may be a confirmation hearing for President-elect Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, “as early as next week.” Here are some questions I would ask him. Some of these are designed to poke him a bit on inconsistent statements he has made, but for others, I’m just curious to see what exactly the Trump administration has in mind for its trade policy.

Regional vs. Bilateral Trade Agreements

You have been critical of regional trade agreements, and supportive of bilateral ones, and in this regard you once said, “The problem with regional trade agreements is you get picked apart by the first country. Then you negotiate with the second you get picked apart. And you go with the third one. You get picked apart again.”

But you also praised the CAFTA-DR, a regional agreement, and criticized the bilateral US-Korea trade agreement. Doesn’t your praise for CAFTA-DR and criticism of the US-Korea agreement contradict your view that regional trade agreements are bad deals?

Also related to this point, other countries seem eager to negotiate regional deals. If they can engage in regional trade negotiations without getting picked apart, why can’t the U.S.?

And finally, with regard to your praise for CAFTA-DR and criticism of the US-Korea FTA, these two agreements are based on the same model, and have very similar provisions. In your view, what were the substantive differences between the two agreements that led to different results?

Renegotiating NAFTA

You have talked about a NAFTA renegotiation on Day 1 of a Trump Presidency. Can you tell us some of the specific provisions in NAFTA you don’t like and would want to see changed, and some of those you like and think should be maintained?

The TPP

In May of 2016, you said that you did not agree with Donald Trump on the TPP,  saying that you “like[d] the TPP.” But now you are opposed to it. What changed your mind?

A US-UK Trade Agreement 

There has been a lot of recent talk about a US-UK trade agreement. Do you support such an agreement? If so, would you hope to start these trade negotiations right away, or would they have to wait until after the UK completes its exit from the EU? 

Foreign Investment Treaties

Trade gets most of the attention, but foreign investment is important too. The U.S. and China have been negotiating an investment treaty for many years. Would you continue this effort? If so, what topics would you want to see included? What is your view of the investor-state dispute mechanism that is a key feature of U.S. investment treaties?

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