Tag: taxes

NRO Article Errs on Tax Cuts

National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru has a new article, “The Tax Cut Doesn’t ‘Tilt Toward the Middle Class.” The piece apparently responds to commentary by Veronique de Rugy and me about the effects of the GOP tax plan.

Ramesh says:

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), households making between $20,000 and $30,000 pay 0.7 percent of all federal taxes now and will pay 0.8 percent of them under this law in 2025 … Households making $30-40,000 pay 1.3 percent of federal taxes now and will pay 1.4 percent of them in 2025. Households making between $40,000 and $75,000 will see their share of federal taxes unchanged at 10.2 percent.

His point is, “the tax cut reduces tax burdens proportionally,” rather than giving the biggest cuts to the middle, as I found here and here.

Alas, Ramesh used the wrong data. The tables published on the JCT website include reduced subsidies from repeal of the ACA individual mandate. Those would be almost entirely spending cuts, not tax increases. (This JCT score shows that the ACA effect will be $314 billion over 10 years, of which $297 billion, or 95 percent, will be spending).  

The JCT produces tables without the ACA subsidies, but they are not posted on the JCT site, in a typical example of the agency’s nontransparency. Phil Kerpen received them from GOP staffers, and they are attached below.

Anyway, here are Ramesh’s points rewritten from the JCT 2025 table that excludes the ACA piece:

Households making between $20,000 and $30,000 pay 0.7 percent of all federal taxes now and will pay 0.6 percent in 2025. Households making $30,000 to 40,000 pay 1.3 percent of federal taxes now and will pay 1.3 percent in 2025. Households making $40,000 to $50,000 will see their share of federal taxes fall from 2.2 to 2.1 percent, and households making $50,000 to $75,000 will see their share fall from 8.0 to 7.9 percent.

The non-ACA JCT table shows that the percentage tax cuts for the middle groups in 2025 are larger than the cuts for the top groups. So even aside from the (misguided) payroll tax issue raised by Ramesh, the JCT table shows that the GOP bill especially favors the middle class and will make the tax code more progressive (unfortunately).

Here is the JCT table, and Veronique responds to Ramesh here.

How Can Republicans Entrench the Tax Cuts?

The peculiarity of Congressional 10-year budgeting has left its mark on the tax debate. In the UK, if something like the Republican bill had passed, it would be regarded as a significant tax cut, pretty much across the board. And rightly so.

As JCT analysis has shown, in 2019, 44 percent would see tax cuts of more than $500, 17 percent tax cuts between $100 and $500, with just 8.1 percent seeing tax increases greater than $100. Even by 2025, just before most of the individual income tax cuts would expire, 56 percent would see tax cuts of more than $100, with just 13.5 percent seeing tax increases of $100 or more. And this includes as “tax rises” the reduction in subsidies paid out as the removal of the individual mandate penalty leads to fewer people opting for health insurance.

As Chris Edwards has explained, even on the JCT’s own figures (which attribute most of the burden of corporate income taxes to the rich), the biggest financial winners in terms of a reduction in the proportion of federal income and corporate taxes they bear will be the middle-class.

Two Problems with the CBO’s Score of the DREAM Act and One Solution

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released a fiscal impact score for the DREAM Act.  It found that the DREAM Act would increase deficits by about $25.9 billion over the next decade.  There are at least two problems with this CBO score and a solution that should make fiscal conservatives and DREAM Act supporters happy.    

What is the Baseline?

The CBO’s black box fiscal estimates are frequently frustrating and this one is no exception.  The biggest difficulty is telling what their baseline is.  Their baseline could be that 700,000 DACA recipients continue to work legally, which is roughly the current situation but will continue to decline rapidly over the next few years as DACA disintegrates.  The baseline could also assume zero government costs incurred while identifying and deporting immigrants who would otherwise have been legalized, an unrealistic assumption given that this administration is building up an internal deportation apparatus. 

The American Action Forum (AAF) has estimated the federal government’s cost of deportation and indirect costs on GDP.  The AAF findings suggest that removing DACA recipients and DREAMers over the next decade will increase government expenditures by $70 billion to $103 billion and lower GDP growth by about $260 billion.  Both of those swamp and fiscal effects from the DREAM Act.  If the AAF estimates are the baseline, the DREAM Act would actually save hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade.   

It is difficult to estimate what immigration enforcement will be like over the next decade but at least some of those large costs should be included as part of the baseline in any CBO fiscal cost analysis.  The choice of baseline matters in whether the DREAM Act will be scored as fiscally positive, negative, or neutral.

The CBO versus the National Academy of Sciences

The findings of the CBO report are inconsistent with the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) fiscal cost projection for first-generation immigrants.  The age and education of the immigrants are the two biggest factors that influence their net fiscal impact.  The greater the education and younger the age at arrivals (with some caveats), the more fiscally positive the immigration is.  In contrast, the less educated and older the age at arrival (same caveats), the less fiscally positive the immigrants is.  

Applying the age and education profiles of DACA recipients to NAS findings by age and education in table 8-21 reveals startlingly different results from that of the CBO (Figure 1).  Figure 1 shows the average net fiscal impact by DREAMers by year after legalization.  Just counting the 700,000 DACA recipients should produce a fiscally positive result over the next decade of about $1.6 billion using the NAS methods.  Expanding this to the roughly 2 million or so eligible DREAMers, assuming they have about the same education and age profiles, should produce about $4.6 billion in net positive tax revenues over the next decade.      

Figure 1: Average Fiscal Impact per DREAMers by Year

 

Sources: National Academy of Sciences, Migration Policy Institute, Pew Research, and Author’s Calculations.

This result comes from the age profile of DACA recipients and DREAMers, not from assuming that they will be highly educated.  For the CBO to find that legalization will turn a $1.6 to $4.6 billion dollar surplus into a $25.9 billion deficit requires an enormous increase in benefit usage or a tremendous drop in taxable income or both at exactly the age when benefit receipts drop and taxable income rises for immigrants (Figure 2). 

Figure 2: Taxes minus Benefits for Immigrants, by Age

 

Source: National Academy of Sciences.

Either the NAS is tremendously wrong in its widely praised fiscal cost analysis or the CBO made unrealistic projections and assumptions, perhaps having to do with a possible uptick in family-sponsored immigration after the DREAM Act.  Regardless, one cannot praise the NAS findings and believe the CBO’s.     

Hedging Our Fiscal Bets

Even if you assume that the CBO’s findings are closer to reality than those of the NAS’, there is an easy solution that Republicans should leap for: welfare reform.  As Cato scholars have written about in detail, it is easy, popular, and fiscally prudent to limit non-citizen access to means-tested welfare benefits.  As part of a DREAM Act, Congress could include stricter welfare rules denying all non-citizens access to means-tested welfare, tax credits, and health insurance subsidies.  Congress could then create a special green card for DACA recipients and DREAMers, call it the DLPR, which they cannot use to naturalize for 10 years.  In such a case, they work legally and pay taxes without access to benefits for a decade when they will then have a choice.  Permanently protecting a large population from deportation while also making this fiscal cost argument moot is a good deal and should be taken regardless of CBO findings.       

Lower the Corporate Tax Rate As Much As We Can, While We Can

The recently concluded tax reform conference report draft includes a one-percentage-point increase in the corporate tax rate above what both the House and the Senate passed, with some of the revenue savings being used to keep a portion of the deduction for state and local taxes as well as forego delaying its implementation until 2019, as the previous bills proposed. There remains a chance the rate may tick up yet again before negotiations are concluded, especially if other targeted tax breaks get some traction in the Congress over the next few days.

However, even this small diminution in the rate reduction is a mistake: while a one point increase may seem to be a trifle, each uptick in the corporate tax rate represents a large opportunity cost that Congress won’t be able to easily rectify in the future.

Johnny Hallyday: Also Bucked Establishment on Taxes

French rocker Johnny Hallyday—the “French Elvis—has passed away at 74. I do not know his music, but it appears that he was an innovator. His sounds were apparently new to French ears, and his willingness to adopt rock styles from the English-speaking world upset the French establishment. But the people adored his music, and he sold 110 million records. So Hallyday and the market got the better of France’s cultural rules.

Hallyday didn’t like French tax rules either. Here is what I wrote in Global Tax Revolution:

The solidarity tax on wealth was imposed in the 1980s under President Francois Mitterrand. It is an annual assessment on net assets above a threshold of about $1 million, and it has graduated rates from 0.55 percent to 1.8 percent. It covers both financial assets and real estate, including principal homes.

One of those hit by the wealth tax was Johnny Hallyday, a famous French rock star and friend of French president Nicolas Sarkozy. Hallyday created a media sensation when he fled to Switzerland in 2006 to avoid the tax. He has said that he will come back to France if Sarkozy “reforms the wealth tax and inheritance law.” Hallyday stated: “I’m sick of paying, that’s all … I believe that after all the work I have done over nearly 50 years, my family should be able to live in some serenity. But 70 percent of everything I earn goes to taxes.” A poll in Le Monde found that two-thirds of the French public were sympathetic to Hallyday’s decision.

France still has its wealth tax, but numerous other countries have scrapped theirs as global tax competition has heated up. As for Hallyday, he spent his last decade avoiding the wealth tax in Switzerland and Los Angeles.

College: Ragnarok

For the second week in a row, Thor: Ragnarok was the big winner at the box office, pulling in $56.6 million in North America last weekend and bringing its worldwide take to more than $650 million. Ragnarok is the mythological destruction of Asgard and the Norse gods, but in real life it has been a huge, money-making win for Marvel Studios. Meanwhile, American higher education has been declaring that it is facing its own Ragnarok in the form of the House Republican tax plan. This end time, in stark contrast to Thor: Ragnarok, will come from a distinct lack of money. As a Washington Post headline asks, is this “The Last Stand for American Higher Education?”

What the Hela

I have qualms about some of the GOP proposals. For instance, the plan would tax “tuition discounts”—basically, prices not actually charged—for graduate students. That’s not technically income, so on normative grounds I’m not sure it should be taxed. The plan also calls for an “excise tax” on the earnings of endowments worth $250,000 or more per student at private institutions. It would impact but a nano-handful of institutions—around 50 out of thousands—and amounts to little more than a politicized, “Take That, Harvard!”

That said, the idea that higher ed is somehow teetering on the edge of financial destruction is ludicrous.

Consider revenues at public colleges since the onset of the Great Recession, during which we supposedly saw massive “disinvestment.” While it is true that total state and local appropriations dipped, total public college revenue rose markedly, from $273 billion in academic year 07-08, to $347 billion in 14-15, a 27 percent increase. Even on an inflation-adjusted, per-pupil basis revenue increased: From $31,561 per student in 07-08, to $32,887 in 14-15, a 4 percent rise. To put that in perspective, per-capita income in the United States is $28,930.

Federal data on private colleges is pretty volatile—it’s not clear why, for instance, between 07-08 and 08-09 total revenue dropped from $139 billion to $69 billion—but it, too, shows little sign of penury. Between 07-08 and 14-15 total revenue rose from $139 billion to $200 billion, a 44 percent increase, and inflation-adjusted per-pupil revenue went from $51,629 to $59,270, a 15 percent increase.

GOP Tax Plan: Adjusted TPC Results

Reporters and pundits are claiming that Republicans are pursuing a tax giveaway to the rich. In fact, the proposed tax changes, especially in the early years, heavily favor middle-income households.

The skewed media coverage of the GOP tax plan is partly based on a slanted presentation of results by the Tax Policy Center (TPC). As I have noted, TPC has expert analysts and does a lot of great work, but they tilt their reports to make it appear that high-earners are favored by recent Republican proposals.

The summary of TPC’s new report on the House GOP tax plan says, “The largest cuts, in dollars and as a percentage of after-tax income, would accrue to higher-income households.” The largest cuts in dollars go to high-earners—no kidding! TPC’s own data (current law data is here) reveal that the top quintile of households will pay an average of about $65,000 in income and estate taxes in 2018, compared to about $3,200 for the middle quintile. Thus, it is very difficult to cut taxes without the top group receiving the largest dollar cuts.

The TPC report presents the data shown in columns 1 and 2 below, which suggest that GOP cuts favor high earners. However, based on TPC data, I calculated columns 4 and 6. Column 4 reveals that the lower and middle groups would receive the largest percentage cuts when total federal taxes are the denominator.  

But, as I discuss here, column 6 presents the best data showing the relative size of GOP cuts. It shows income and estate tax cuts as a percentage of current income and estate taxes paid. Under the GOP plan, the middle quintile gets a big 26 percent tax cut, on average, while the top two quintiles would receive cuts of 16.9 percent and 7.4 percent. Looked at this way, middle earners would get the largest tax cuts under the GOP plan.

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