Tag: public opinion

How Many Libertarians Are There? The Answer Depends on the Method You Use

There has been debate this week about how many libertarians there are. The answer is: it depends on how you measure it and how you define libertarian. The overwhelming body of literature, however, using a variety of different methods and different definitions, suggests that libertarians comprise about 10-20% of the population, but may range from 7-22%.

Notes: This estimate comes from an analysis I ran on the 2012 American National Election Study Evaluations of Government and Society Survey (EGSS) 2.  Furthermore, if one imposes the same level of ideological consistency on liberals, conservatives, and communitarians/populists that many do on libertarians, these groups too comprise similar shares of the population.

In this post I provide a brief overview of different methods academics have used to identify libertarians and what they found. Most methods start from the premise that libertarians are economically conservative and socially liberal. Despite this, different studies find fairly different results. What accounts for the difference?

1) First, people use different definitions of libertarians

2) Second, they use different questions in their analysis to identify libertarians

3) Third, they use very different statistical methods.

Let’s start with a few questions: How do you define a libertarian? Is there one concrete libertarian position on every policy issue?

What is the “libertarian position” on abortion? Is there one? What is the “libertarian position” on Social Security? Must a libertarian support abolishing the program, or might a libertarian support private accounts, or means testing, or sending it to the states instead? A researcher will find fewer libertarians in the electorate if they demand that libertarians support abolishing Social Security rather than means testing or privatizing it. 

Further, why are libertarians expected to conform to an ideological litmus test but conservatives and liberals are not? For instance, what is the “conservative position” on Social Security? Is there one? When researchers use rigid ideological definitions of liberals and conservatives, they too make up similar shares of the population as libertarians. Thus, as political scientist Jason Weeden has noted, researchers have to make fairly arbitrary decisions about where the cut-off points should be for the “libertarian,” “liberal,” or “conservative” position. This pre-judgement strongly determines how many libertarians researchers will find.

Next, did researchers simply ask people if they identify as libertarian, or did they ask them public policy questions (a better method)? If the latter, how many issue questions did they ask? Then, what questions did they ask?

Survey: What Turns Democrats against the Affordable Care Act’s Core Regulations?

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, may perhaps be the most contentious and polarizing law we’ve seen enacted in the past several decades. For seven years, Democrats have remained convinced they like it and Republicans confident that they don’t.

But once we get past the partisanship and polarization, what do Democrats and Republicans think about the fundamental regulations that constitute the core of Obamacare? These core regulations include pre-existing conditions rules that require insurance companies cover anyone who applies (guaranteed issue) and charge people the same rates regardless of pre-existing conditions (community rating).

All government policies and their ostensible benefits come with a price. What are Americans willing to pay?

As I’ve previously written, the Cato Institute 2017 Health Care Survey found that while Americans initially support core Obamacare regulations of community rating and guaranteed issue, support plummets if such regulations harm access to high quality medical services, require higher premiums or higher taxes. That being said, Americans appear to care more about their access to high quality medical services than they care about higher taxes, higher premiums, or universal coverage for those with pre-existing conditions.

Democrats are unique, however. They are the only group who says they’d be willing to pay more if it guaranteed coverage to those with pre-existing conditions. Six in 10 Democrats say they’d be willing to personally pay higher taxes and 58% say they’d pay higher premiums so that insurance companies wouldn’t charge people higher rates based on pre-existing conditions (community rating). Similar shares say they’d pay higher taxes (60%) and premiums (51%) so that insurance companies would cover anyone who applies (guaranteed issue).

Large Majorities Support Key Obamacare Provisions, Unless They Cost Something

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that Americans say they support Affordable Care Act regulations that require health insurance companies in all states to cover a particular set of services (62%) and prohibit insurers in all states from charging higher prices to people with pre-existing conditions (70%).

However, the poll did not find out what Americans would be willing to give up to obtain these regulatory benefits.

Fortunately, a recent Cato Institute/YouGov health care survey investigated how Americans make trade-offs when it comes to their health care. In short, support for once popular regulations plummets as soon as voters consider their costs.

At first, and similar to the Washington Post/ABC poll, the Cato survey found by a margin of 63% to 33% Americans support prohibiting insurance companies from charging higher premiums because of pre-existing conditions—also known as “community rating.” But support flips, and majorities come to oppose community rating…

  • if it limited access to medical tests and treatments: 66% oppose, 27% support
  • If it limited access to top rated medical facilities and treatment centers: 62% oppose, 31% support
  • If one had to wait several months before seeing a specialists for necessary care: 65% oppose, 25% support
  • if premiums increased: 55% oppose, 39% favor
  • if taxes increased: 53% oppose, 40% favor

Could Trump Turn Democrats Against Single-Payer Health Care?

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll examines how Donald Trump impacts Democrats’ and Republicans’ conventional public policy opinions. The survey asked Americans to evaluate a series of questions related to statements Donald Trump has made on public policy. However, the poll only told half of the respondents that Trump had made the statement, the other half were simply asked if they agreed or disagreed with the position. Sure enough, the “Trump effect” turned Democrats’ away from single-payer health care and got Republicans somewhat less convinced of their opposition.

The survey asked respondents how much they agreed or disagreed with the following statement made by Donald Trump: “When it comes to health care, the government should take care of everybody and the government should pay for it.” However, only half the sample were told Trump made the statement, the other half were simply asked if they agreed or disagreed that government should pay for everyone’s healthcare.

At first, 68% of Democrats agreed that government should pay for everybody’s healthcare. However, this share drops 21 points to 47% among Democrats who were told Trump thought government should pay for everyone’s healthcare. Republicans’ support increased, but by 6 points, from 33% to 39%, among those who were told Trump made the statement. Initially, 61% of Republicans disagreed with the idea of single-payer, but opposition declined to 50% among those who learned Trump favored it.

The survey also found that Trump could make Democrats more supportive of the idea of American exceptionalism and turn Republicans against it. At first, a majority (53%) of Democrats agreed that “American exceptionalism—the idea that the USA holds a unique place in history—is insulting to people from other countries.” However, results flip among Democrats who were told that Trump made this statement. Instead, a majority (54%) come to disagree with the statement that American exceptionalism is insulting to people from other countries.  

Republicans operated in reverse. A majority (53%) of Republicans at first disagreed that the idea of American exceptionalism is insulting to people from other countries. However, a plurality (46%) came to agree with the statement when they heard that Trump believes American exceptionalism is insulting abroad.

The survey found several more instances of the “Trump effect” among partisans. Notably, majorities of both Democrats (69%) and Republicans (56%) agreed that “government officials should be forbidden from financially benefitting from their position.” However, when Trump was explicitly identified, only 23% of Republicans believed that “Donald Trump should be forbidden from financially benefiting from his position”—a shift of 33 points.

Syria and the Danger of Elite Consensus

There was near consensus in Washington, D.C. last week in support of the U.S. strike on Syria. Voices from the left supporting Trump’s action include Hillary Clinton, most of America’s European allies, Tom Friedman, and a large number of former Obama officials. On the right, the usual suspects like Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham supported the attack, as did most Republican members of Congress, including some like Majority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell who opposed exactly such an action when President Obama was considering in back in 2013. Even the mainstream media appear to have decided it was time to strike Assad, at least to judge from much of the breathless “journalism” we’ve seen so far.

On first blush one might imagine that this consensus is a good thing, coming as it does during what has otherwise been an incredibly polarized first few months of Trump’s presidency. Finally, you might say, we agree on something. And all this agreement among the people we elect and pay to run U.S. foreign policy might also give you confidence that Trump did the right thing.

That confidence, sadly, would be misplaced. The truth is that the elite consensus on Syria, like Trump’s missile strike, is premature and ultimately dangerous to American national security.

The fundamental danger of elite consensus is that it undermines the marketplace of ideas. A democracy’s primary strength in foreign policy making is the ability to weigh competing policy proposals in the news media. Debate and deliberation reveal the evidence and logic behind competing claims and helps the public and political leaders assess the implications of different courses of action. This process, in theory, helps the United States avoid poor decisions.

Consensus, however, undermines this process by substituting doctrine for debate. Almost by definition, consensus requires little, if any, debate or deliberation. When was the last time elite consensus resulted from a free-flowing and vigorous debate in the United States? The natural outcome of debate is division and disagreement. Consensus emerges only when people already agree so completely on the key assumptions and value judgments involved that the conclusions are preordained and debate is unnecessary.

In the case of Syria, Republican and Democratic elites supported Trump’s missile strike not because they had an extended debate over its wisdom–in fact, there was zero debate before the surprise attack was announced–but because they all relied on the same basic doctrine that strongly endorses the value of military intervention, what Obama recently called the “Washington playbook.” Reliance on doctrine may be sufficient when the topic is how to handle routine issues, but it is clearly not the right approach when it comes to complex policy problems, about which both citizens and political leaders have incomplete information. Though beliefs are useful as general guidelines, they must be married to a careful consideration of the facts of the case at hand in order to produce sound policies. And the best way to assess the connection between beliefs and actions is to debate policy options in the marketplace of ideas.

Women’s Attitudes on the Gender Pay Gap May Surprise You

Today is Equal Pay Day, the day that marks how far into the next year women on average have to work to bring home the same income men earned in the previous year. In light of Equal Pay Day I published an op-ed in the Washington Examiner that looks at women’s opinions about the gender pay gap. What I found might surprise you:

Pew Research Center survey found that 62 percent of women believe that women “generally” get paid less than men for doing the same work. However, when asked about their own companies, far fewer — just 14 percent total — believe women are getting paid less than men where they work, and 17 percent say women have fewer opportunities for promotions where they work.

These are nearly 50-point shifts in perception from what women believe is generally happening in society at-large, and what they collectively report is happening based on their experiences in their own jobs.

This in no way discounts the negative experiences women have had, and we should not shy from denouncing inequitable treatment. Yet these data also reveal that although most women believe they are being treated fairly, they also believe that most other women aren’t.

These data indicate that women have come to believe the myth that women are getting paid less than men for doing the same work. However, academic studies show that gender discrimination is not largely influencing wages, as I explain in the op-ed:

Although Census data show that women make less money on average than men, this fails to consider any information about how women and men choose to pursue a work/life balance, whether they enter a career that requires 80-hour work weeks or 40-hour work weeks, whether they take time out of the workforce to raise children, how much education they attain, whether they go into careers like investment banking or education, surgery or nursing, etc.

Studies that take these other factors into account find that the gender pay gap narrows to about 95 cents on the dollar. The remaining 5 cent difference might be due to discrimination, or it might be due to differences in salary negotiations, or other reasons. Harvard economist Claudia Goldin writes, “The gender gap in pay would be considerably reduced and might even vanish if firms did not have an incentive to disproportionately reward individuals who worked long hours and who worked particular hours.”

The Pew Survey found several disconnects between what women believe is causing the gender pay gap and the empirical research. First, Pew found that 54% of women believe that gender discrimination is a “major reason” for the pay gap. Although gender discrimination in pay can occur and should be sharply rebuked, research finds it is not significantly impacting wages.

Second, although differences in the number of hours men and women work (and when those hours are worked) is a significant driver of the wage gap, most women don’t find this believable. Only 28% thought this was a “major reason” that women on average earn less than men. Perhaps it sounds like one is accusing women of being lazy. Just because men on average work more hours in an office setting doesn’t mean women aren’t working the same or more hours when you combine hours worked in the office and taking care of family and home responsibilities.

Women responded better to the idea that men and women on average make different choices about how to balance work and family responsibilities and that might explain differences in pay. In fact, this was the most likely reason selected with 60% of women saying it was a major reason men and women earn different incomes.

As we talk about Equal Pay Day and the gender pay gap, it’s important to keep in mind both the empirical facts and where people are coming from. Some women have experienced discrimination in their jobs and such treatment should be condemned. We also need to be mindful about how we explain the sources of the gender pay gap, and avoid suggesting women aren’t working as hard as men.

Furthermore, in light of Equal Pay Day, we should point out the potential harms caused to women by perpetuating the idea that there is widespread injustice set against them. If women believe the deck is stacked against them regardless of their choices, this risks undermining risk-taking, accountability, and initiative. 

You can read the whole op-ed at the Washington Examiner here.

55% of Americans Say Free Market Competition Offers “Better Way” to Provide Affordable High-Quality Health Care

In his call to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, House Speaker Paul Ryan contended “there are two ways of fixing healthcare…have the government run it, ration it, and put price controls…[or] have a vibrant free market where people…go out in a free market place and buy the health care of their choosing.”

A new survey from the Cato Institute finds that 55% of Americans believe “more free market competition among insurance companies, doctors, and hospitals” offers the “better way” to provide affordable high-quality health insurance to people. In contrast, 39% say that “more government management of insurance companies, doctors, and hospitals,” would better achieve this goal.

Full Results

Respondents sort themselves along partisan lines. A majority (62%) of Democrats including leaners think that more government management of insurance companies, hospitals, and doctors is the better approach to health care reform. In contrast, majorities of non-partisan independents (57%) and Republicans including leaners (84%) think free market competition offers a better alternative.

The divide between Republicans and Democrats widens as they attain higher levels of education. Fifty percent (50%) of Democrats with high school degrees believe that free market competition would better provide high-quality affordable health care. However, this share drops to 17% among Democrats with college degrees—a 33-point swing. The share of Republicans who believe free markets better deliver high-quality affordable coverage increases from 81% among those with high school degrees to 94% among college graduates. Non-partisan independents’ attitudes don't change much with education.

These results are consistent with the theory that partisans become more likely to learn about and accept partisan cues on health care policy as they gain more political information. Independents, on the other hand, feel less inclined to accept partisan cues regardless of their political knowledge.

This is not the only survey which finds Americans prefer a free market approach to reducing costs in health care.  A Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that 51% of Americans thought free market competition would better reduce prescription drug prices than government regulation (40%).

For decades Americans have debated how to best provide access to high-quality affordable health care. Some argue that health care markets operate differently and thus require more government management to ensure people get the care they need. Others contend that, just like in other sectors, injecting free market forces into health care would incentivize lower costs, increase quality, and expand access.

These results indicate public appetite for taking a new approach to health care reform: injecting free market forces into the system in order to provide access to affordable high-quality health insurance.

Survey results and methodology can be found here. The Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov conducted two health care surveys online February 22-23, 2017. The first survey interviewed 1,152 American adults with a margin of error of ± 2.93 percentage points. The second survey interviewed 1,103 American adults with a margin of error of ± 2.85 percentage points. The margin of error for items used in half-samples is approximately ± 5.1 percentage points.

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