March 25, 2019 3:31PM

Immigration’s Popularity Is Rising Thanks to Trump

I recently reviewed Reihan Salam’s Melting Pot or Civil War? A Son of Immigrants Makes the Case Against Open Borders.  My review is critical, but there is one major point on immigration that Salam gets right elsewhere: President Donald Trump will undermine the cause of immigration restriction.  Trump’s ugly rhetoric from the beginning, his administration’s casual and unnecessary cruelty in the case of child separations, his pandering with the Muslim travel ban, and his consistent call for a wall that will not slow down the flow of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers who turn themselves in to Border Patrol, are all potentially undermining immigration restriction.  Immigration is getting more popular.

Gallup has been asking the same question on immigration since 1965:

Thinking now about immigrants -- that is, people who come from other countries to live here in the United States, in your view, should immigration be kept at its present level, increased or decreased?

Since Trump was elected in 2016, the percentage of Americans who wanted increased immigration has risen by 9 percentage points from 21 percent to 30 percent (Figure 1).  Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who want less immigration has fallen from 38 percent to 31 percent.  In other words, the difference between those who want to increase immigration and those who want to decrease it currently lies within the statistical margin of error.  The percentage of those who want to keep immigration at the present level has stayed constant over that time.  The last time support for increased immigration climbed that much in so short a time was between 2011 and 2014, during a debate over a major reform bill in Congress.  Although the pro-reform side did not convince Congress to liberalize immigration law, they may have changed the minds of many Americans.

The current and gradual shift toward the pro-immigration opinion is especially large compared to 1993 when only 6 percent of Americans wanted to increase immigration and 65 percent wanted to decrease it.  Since then, the percentage of Americans who want more legal immigration has increased 5-fold while the percentage of those who want to cut immigration has more than halved. 

One criticism of the above Gallup question is that it asks about all immigration, which also includes illegal immigration.  Anecdotally, many people tell me that the question is bad because it doesn’t specify legal immigration and that support for legal immigration is much higher.  Gallup asked the same question about LEGAL immigration in 2018 and the results were barely different from the ALL immigration question (Table 1).  Fewer people support decreasing legal immigration and more support increasing it, but the difference is minor.  Bottom line: Most people who read the “all immigration” question understand that it includes “legal immigrants” and isn’t limited to just illegal immigrants.  The group of Americans who is “very opposed to illegal immigration and very supportive of legal immigration” is likely small.    

Gallup has a suggestive and intermittently asked poll where they attempt to gauge the public perception of the threat that illegal immigrants pose.  In 2019, 47 percent said that it was “critical” (the highest threat level), but that is below the 50 percent who rated it as “critical” in 2004.  Looking at the two Gallup poll results, some of the people who think that illegal entry is a critical threat do not want to cut immigration.  This has potentially important implications for whether the perception of chaos is a driver of immigration opinion.

Pew asks a slightly different question about whether immigrants strengthen the country or are a burden.  The responses to that question (Figure 2) are probably closely correlated with support for increased immigration.  Since Donald Trump started his campaign in 2015, the public’s positive opinion of immigrants has risen substantially.  There were increases in the pro-immigration opinion of similar magnitude before, but the Trump-effect could be driving them today.

The General Social Survey did not ask about people’s opinion on immigration in 2018, but the Gallup and Pew polls convincingly show that Americans are becoming more supportive of increasing immigration and that Trump has probably helped that transformation along.  Some of the shift in public opinion is likely a partisan reaction among Democrats to a Republican president whose main issue is restricting immigration.  However, Democrats started becoming more pro-immigration over a decade ago, so it’s also a shift in their ideology.  

Public opinion matters in our political system because the opinions of the median voter basically determine policy in the long run.  The rise in support for increasing legal immigration, partly because of the Trump administration, is great for the country and bad for immigration restrictionists. 

March 8, 2019 1:01PM

68% of Americans Wouldn’t Pay $10 a Month in Higher Electric Bills to Combat Climate Change

Public opinion polls have long found that Americans say they are concerned about climate change. But does that mean people are willing to reduce their own standard of living and make personal sacrifices in efforts to do something about it? New survey data suggests not. An AP-NORC survey finds that 68% of Americans wouldn’t be willing to pay even $10 more a month in higher electric bills even if the money were used to combat climate change.

Proposals that use government intervention in the economy to combat climate change, like the Green New Deal (GND), will require people make personal sacrifices. The GND resolution, introduced to Congress by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  (D-NY) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), calls for the U.S. to undertake a 10 year national mobilization, on the scale of World War II, to overhaul its entire infrastructure and industry, including upgrading or replacing every single building in the US with new energy-efficient technology, and reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 10 years with a goal of completely eliminating Americans use of gas, oil, and coal. Currently, about 80% of all the energy Americans use comes from fossil fuels like gas, oil, and coal. 

To say the least, the Green New Deal isn’t cheap. Most analyses estimate it will cost in the trillions of dollars and require Americans to make personal sacrifices. Both supporters and opponents of the plan agree that the environmental aspects of the plan would cost at least $10 trillion. That's about three times the entire U.S. federal budget. Even when spread out over 10 to 30 years, these estimates indicate an annual price tag of thousands of dollars per U.S. household. Higher levels of government spending necessarily require higher taxes, either now or in the future. Advocates of the Green New Deal say it can be paid for with the government borrowing money (deficit spending.) But deficit spending today means higher taxes tomorrow.

Many 2020 Democratic hopefuls have signed on to the plan, including Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bernie Sanders, and Amy Klobuchar. They may believe this is a popular move with the public. Perhaps because surveys show the public is concerned about climate change. For instance, a 2018 Quinnipiac survey found that 69% of Americans say they are concerned about climate change.  And the same survey found that a smaller, but still substantial, share (50%) believe that climate change will personally affect them during their lifetimes.

But what people say they are concerned about and what they are actually willing to do about it are not the same thing.  An AP-NORC survey found that 68% of Americans wouldn’t be willing to pay $10 a month in high electric bills to combat climate change. The survey asked people if they would be willing to pay a fee in their electric bill every month that would be used to combat climate change. Then the survey asked about different potential fee amounts. The survey found overwhelming majorities of Americans opposed paying the fee to combat climate change if it cost:

  • $10 a month, 68% opposed
  • $20 a month, 69% opposed
  • $40 a month, 76% opposed
  • $75 a month, 83% opposed
  • $100 a month, 82% opposed

Was there any amount Americans were willing to pay to combat climate change? Yes, $1 dollar. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Americans would be willing to pay a $1 a month fee in their electric bills to combat climate change.

Although Americans say they are worried about climate change, most clearly aren’t worried enough to spend their own money on it, or make personal sacrifices for the cause. Perhaps it might be that people know they are supposed to be concerned about climate change because this is a salient message they receive from trusted sources and thus say so on surveys. However, receiving these messages and cues hasn’t been enough to convince them to give up their own money, let alone lower their own standard of living, for the cause of combating global warming. However, significant personal sacrifices are what proposals like the Green New Deal will require. These data provide some indication that purported support for government interventions in the economy to deal with climate change may be inflated. Instead, Americans may be more supportive of public policies that foster an economic environment that allows for technological innovation and invention among rising entrepreneurs and private sector businesses competing to come up with the next big idea that makes our world cleaner, healthier, happier, and more productive. 

 

November 8, 2017 9:28AM

82% Say It’s Hard to Ban Hate Speech Because People Can’t Agree What Speech Is Hateful

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An overwhelming majority (82%) of Americans agree that "it would be hard to ban hate speech because people can’t agree what speech is hateful," the Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey finds. Seventeen percent (17%) disagree. Majorities across partisan and demographic groups alike agree that hate speech is hard to define and thus may be hard to regulate.

Full survey results and report found here.

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How Do Americans Define Hate Speech?

When presented with specific statements and ideas, Americans can’t agree on what speech is hateful, offensive, or simply a political opinion

Besides slurs and biological racism, Americans are strikingly at odds over what speech and ideas constitute hate.[1] For instance, a majority of Democrats (52%) believe saying that transgender people have a mental disorder is hate speech. Only 17% of Republicans agree. On the other hand, 42% of Republicans believe it’s hateful to say that the police are racist, while only 19% of Democrats agree.

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Among all Americans, majorities agree that calling a racial minority a racial slur (61%), saying one race is genetically superior to another (57%), or calling gays and lesbians vulgar names (56%) is not just offensive, but is hate speech. Interestingly a majority do not think calling a woman a vulgar name is hateful (43%), but most would say it’s offensive (51%). Less than half believe it’s hateful to say that all white people are racist (40%), transgender people have a mental disorder (35%), America is an evil country (34%), homosexuality is a sin (28%), the police are racist (27%), or illegal immigrants should be deported (24%). Less than a fifth believe it’s hateful to say Islam is taking over Europe (18%) or that women should not fight in military combat roles (15%).

Liberals and Conservatives Define Hate Speech Differently

Liberals and conservatives significantly diverge over what speech they define as hateful, offensive, or simply an opinion.

Majorities of liberals say that slurs against racial minorities (81%) and LGBT people (73%), saying that one race is genetically superior to others (75%), or saying transgender people have a mental disorder (59%) are hateful. Strikingly, majorities of conservatives don’t think any of these ideas are “hateful” although most consider them “offensive” or hateful.[2] In fact, conservatives are about 40 points less likely than liberals to think that saying transgender people have a mental disorder (17% vs. 59%) or saying racial slurs (43% vs. 81%) are hateful. While strong majorities of conservatives agree these are at least offensive or hateful, they are less likely to equate these phrases and ideas with hate specifically.

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Although majorities of conservatives did not find any of the statements included on the survey hateful, they were more likely than liberals to find several statements hateful. First, conservatives are about twice as likely as liberals to think it’s hateful to say the police are racist (39% vs. 17%). Second, conservatives are somewhat more likely to believe it’s hateful to say that America is an evil country (39% vs. 29%). Third, conservatives are somewhat more likely than liberals to think it’s hateful to say that all white people are racist (44% vs. 35%).

Liberals are more likely than conservatives to view a variety of political opinions and speech as either offensive or hateful.

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Liberals are more than 40 points more likely than conservatives to think it is offensive or hateful for a person to say that homosexuality is a sin (90% vs. 47%), women shouldn’t fight in military combat roles (87% vs. 47%), illegal immigrants should be deported (80% vs. 36%), or Islam is taking over Europe (79% vs. 33%). Not even a majority of conservatives find these statements to be offensive or hateful.

Notice that two of these, women fighting in combat roles and deporting illegal immigrants, are policy positions that a substantial number of Americans hold. For instance, a Quinnipiac survey found 22% of Americans believe unauthorized immigrants should be “required to leave” the United States. A Fox News poll found 26% don’t think women should fight in military combat roles. Furthermore, the perception that the police allow racial bias to impact their jobs is also a view held by about a quarter (26%) of Americans, according to a Quinnipiac survey.

Yet, to merely express these as political positions or perceptions would also be viewed as highly offensive to a large share of the population.

Implications

These data demonstrate why it would be difficult to regulate hateful or offensive speech—Americans can’t agree what speech is hateful or offensive. Across a variety of statements, liberals and conservatives varied dramatically in the speech they found hateful, offensive, or neither hateful nor offensive.

Furthermore, what may be a policy preference or an assessment of public policy for one person, such as deporting unauthorized immigrants or perceiving a racial bias in policing, may be highly offensive and hateful to another. Thus, attempts to regulate offensive speech would have the effect of shutting down dialogue and erect barriers to public policy debate.

Full survey results and report found here.

Sign up here to receive forthcoming Cato Institute survey reports.


The Cato Institute 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 15–23, 2017 from a national sample of 2,300 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.00 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.


[1] In this report, biological racism refers to a belief that some races are genetically superior or inferior to one another.

[2] 

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November 6, 2017 10:57AM

20% of College Students Say College Faculty Has Balanced Mix of Political Views

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The Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey finds only 20% of current college and graduate students believe their college or university faculty has a balanced mix of political views. A plurality (39%) say most college and university professors are liberal, 27% believe most are politically moderate, and 12% believe most are conservative.

College Democrats Less Likely Than Republicans to Think Faculty Is Liberal

Democratic and Republican students see their college campuses very differently. A majority (59%) of Republican college students believe that most faculty members are liberal. In contrast, only 35% of Democratic college students agree most professors are liberal. Democratic students are also about twice as likely as Republican students to think their professors are moderate (32% vs. 16%) or conservative (14% vs. 9%).

Full survey results and report found here.

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College Students Agree Student Body is Liberal



Current students believe that most of their campus’ student body is liberal. Fifty-percent (50%) believe that most students at their college or university are liberal, 21% believe most are moderate, 8% believe most are conservative, and 19% believe there is a balanced mix of political views.

Democratic and Republican students largely agree on the ideological composition of their campus student body.

Consequences of Campus Political Climate

These perceptions of ideological homogeneity on college campuses may explain why 72% of Republican college students say the political climate prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. About a quarter (26%) of Republican college students feel they can share their political views.

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Far fewer Democratic college students feel they can’t share their beliefs. College Democrats (51%) are 21 points less likely than Republican students (72%) to feel they can’t share their views. Nevertheless over half of Democratic students also feel the need to self-censor. Interestingly, college students who identify as independents (70%) are about as likely as Republicans (72%) to say they feel uncomfortable sharing their opinions as well.

Only current students who identify as “very liberal” do not feel the need to self-censor (74%). However, liberal college students (55%) instead feel that they have to hide some of their political views, as well as 69% of moderates, 71% of conservatives, and 83% of strongly conservative students.

In sum, there is a widespread perception that most faculty and students at American colleges and universities are liberal. But it’s not just perception. Empirical studies of faculty ideology confirm what most students observe. Surveys conducted by sociologist Neil Gross and others find that, indeed, most of the professoriate is liberal. Sam Abrams at Heterodoxacademy.org summarizes some of this data to show that as of 2014 about 12% of professors are conservative while about 60% are liberal. Further, the Cato Free Speech and Tolerance Survey finds that nearly half (46%) of current college and graduate students identify as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic. About a quarter identify as Republican (27%).

These results matter because if universities become political echo chambers, it could lead to the exclusion of non-conforming political views, self-censorship, and less rigorous academic inquiry. Without a free exchange of ideas, there may be less thorough checking of academic work and the quality of research may decline. By extension, the public may lose confidence in the process of academic inquiry and become skeptical of its results.

Full survey results and report found here.

divSign up here to receive forthcoming Cato Institute survey reports.


The Cato Institute 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 15-23, 2017 from a national sample of 2,300 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.00 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

November 3, 2017 11:54AM

51% of Strong Liberals Say It’s Morally Acceptable to Punch Nazis

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Is violence an appropriate response to hate speech? The Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolernace Survey finds most Americans say no. More than two-thirds (68%) of Americans say it is not morally acceptable to punch a Nazi in the face. About a third (32%), however, say it is morally acceptable.[1] 

Strong liberals stand out with a slim majority (51%) who say it’s moral to punch Nazis. Only 21% of strong conservatives agree.

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Full survey results and report found here.

Strong liberals’ approval of Nazi-punching is not representative of Democrats as a whole. A majority (56%) of Democrats believe it is not morally acceptable to punch a Nazi. Thus, tolerance of violence as a response to offensive speech and ideas is found primarily on the far Left.

The survey found liberals were more likely to consider upsetting and controversial ideas “hateful” rather than simply “offensive.” This may help partially explain why staunch liberals are more comfortable than the average American with using violence against Nazis.

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Approval for punching Nazis also varies with age and race. Millennials (42%) are nearly twice as likely as people over 55 (24%) to say such violence is morally justified. African Americans (45%) are also more likely than whites (28%) and Latinos (35%) to say punching Nazis is morally acceptable. Nevertheless, majorities of each of these groups say physical force is not justified, even against a Nazi.

Full survey results and report found here.

divSign up here to receive forthcoming Cato Institute survey reports.


The Cato Institute 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 15-23, 2017 from a national sample of 2,300 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.00 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

 

 




[1] Data on punching Nazis in this section come from a Cato Institute/YouGov survey conducted August 21 to 22, 2017 (N=1,141). Question wording: “Is it morally acceptable or unacceptable to punch a Nazi?" See Survey Methodology for further details.

November 2, 2017 9:46AM

Clinton Voters Can’t Be Friends with Trump Voters

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The Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey finds nearly two-thirds (61%) of Clinton voters agree that it’s "hard" to be friends with people who voted for Donald Trump, while 38% disagree. However, Trump voters don’t feel a similar animus toward Clinton voters. Instead, a majority (64%) of Trump voters do not think that it’s hard to be friends with Clinton voters while 34% believe it is difficult.

Full survey results and report found here.

 

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The Cato Institute 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 15-23, 2017 from a national sample of 2,300 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.00 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. 

November 1, 2017 9:23AM

63% of Republicans Say Journalists Are an “Enemy of the American People”

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Early in his presidential tenure, Donald Trump tweeted that the national news media is “fake news” and that it is an enemy of the American people. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Americans do not agree with President Trump that journalists today are an “enemy of the American people,” finds the Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey. Thirty-five percent (35%) side with the president.

However, nearly two-thirds (63%) of Republicans agree that journalists are an enemy of the American people. Such a charge is highly polarizing: 89% of Democrats and 61% of independents do not think journalists are the enemy.

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52% of Democrats Say Media Is Doing a Good Job Holding Government Accountable

While Republicans stand out with their negative view of the media, Democrats have uniquely positive evaluations of it. A slim majority (52%) of Democrats say the national news media is doing a good or even an excellent job “holding government accountable.” In contrast, only 24% of independents and 16% of Republicans agree.

Full survey results and report found here.

 

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Among all Americans, only a third (33%) agree the news media is doing its job holding government accountable. More than two-thirds (67%) say it is not.

The more a person identifies as liberal, the more likely they are to say the media is doing a good job. Among strong liberals, 59% say the national news media is doing a good or excellent job holding government accountable. In contrast, 87% of strong conservatives say it’s doing a poor or fair job.

Most Americans Perceive Media Bias

Why do Republicans lack confidence in the national news media while Democrats view it positively? Perhaps because most Americans perceive a liberal bias among most major news organizations.[1]

 

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Fifty-two percent (52%) of respondents say that the New York Times allows a liberal bias to color its reporting. Fifty percent (50%) feel CNN also succumbs to a liberal media bias. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say that MSNBC also has a liberal bias. Of all the top news organizations included on the survey, only Fox News was perceived to have a conservative bias (56%).

Americans feel their local news stations and broadcast news channels do a better job than cable news in providing balanced reporting. A majority (54%) say their local news station is balanced, without a liberal or a conservative bias. A plurality (42%) also believe that CBS is balanced. Nevertheless, respondents were four times as likely to say CBS has a liberal bias than a conservative bias (40% vs. 10%), and almost twice as likely to say their local station has a liberal bias (23% vs. 14%).

Democrats Believe Media Is Balanced; Republicans See Liberal Bias

Majorities of Democrats believe most major news organizations are balanced in their reporting, including CBS (72%), CNN (55%), the New York Times (55%), as well as their local news station (67%). A plurality (44%) also believe the Wall Street Journal is balanced. The two exceptions are that a plurality (47%) believe MSNBC has a liberal bias (37% believe it’s unbiased) and a strong majority (71%) say Fox has a conservative bias.

Republicans, on the other hand, see things differently. Overwhelming majorities believe liberal bias colors reporting at the New York Times (80%), CNN (81%), CBS (73%), and MSNBC (80%). A plurality also feel the Wall Street Journal (48%) has a liberal tilt. Only when evaluating their local TV news station do most Republicans—but not a majority—perceive balanced reporting (42%). Similar to Democrats’ perceptions of MSNBC, a plurality of Republicans (44%) believe Fox News has a conservative bias; 41% believe it provides unbiased reporting.

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The news outlets that Republicans find most objective are their local news station (42%), Fox (41%), and the Wall Street Journal (28%). The media organizations Democrats find most objective include CBS (72%), their local news station (67%), CNN (55%), and the New York Times (55%).

70% Say Government Should Not Be Able to Shut Down News Stories

Despite Democrats and Republicans’ different perceptions of news media, they agree that government should not shut down news stories—even if biased or inaccurate.

Strong majorities of Republicans (63%), independents (71%), and Democrats (76%) agree that “government should not be able to stop a news media outlet from publishing a story that government officials say is biased or inaccurate.”

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Among all Americans, 70% say government should not shut down news stories regardless of whether officials think the story is inaccurate. A little more than a quarter (29%) think government should have the authority to stifle stories authorities say are inaccurate or biased.

Full survey results and report found here.

Sign up here to receive forthcoming Cato Institute survey reports

The Cato Institute 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 15–23, 2017 from a national sample of 2,300 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.00 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

[1] Percentages in this section have been calculated among Americans with an opinion of the news source. The following were not familiar with each of these news sources: CNN: 16%, Fox: 13%, MSNBC: 22%, CBS: 19%, Local TV News Station: 18%, New York Times: 24%, Wall Street Journal: 29%.