For the second year in a row, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) estimates that enrollment in the health insurance exchanges will come in far below earlier projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
According to the research brief released yesterday, HHS estimates that effectuated enrollment, or enrolled and paying premiums, will be in the range of 9.4 to 11.4 million at the end of 2016. In a conference call with reporters HHS Secretary Burwell said she believes “10 million is a strong and realistic goal… our target assumes something that is probably pretty challenging, which is that more than one out of every four of the eligible uninsured will select plans.” Effectuated enrollment of 10 million for 2016 would be an increase of only 900,000 over the department’s estimate for this year. The department now projects exchange enrollment to stagnate in the same year CBO estimated that average effectuated enrollment would almost double to 21 million. Part of this is due to a slower than expected shift from employer-sponsored insurance, but also due to difficulties in reaching some segments of the uninsured population.