Tag: NBER

The Folly of Overregulating School Choice: A Response to Critics

Earlier this week, NBER released the first random-assignment study ever to find a negative impact from a school voucher program. Previous gold standard studies had almost unanimously found modest positive effects from school choice, which raises the obvious question: what makes the Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP) so different?

In an article for Education Next, I argued that, “although not conclusive, there is considerable evidence that the problem stemmed from poor program design.” The LSP is one of the most heavily regulated school choice programs in the nation, and that burden has led to a very low rate of private school participation.  Only about one-third of Louisiana private schools accept voucher students, a considerably lower rate than in most other states. From a survey of private school leaders conducted by Brian Kisida, Patrick J. Wolf, and Evan Rhinesmith for the American Enterprise Institute, we know that the primary reason private schools opted out of the voucher program was their concerns over the regulatory burden, particularly those regulations that threatened their character and identity. For example, voucher-accepting schools in Louisiana may not set their own admissions criteria, cannot charge families more than the value of the voucher (a meager $5,311 on average in 2012), and must administer the state test.

The Unintended Consequences of Regulating School Choice

Yesterday, NBER released the first random-assignment study of a school choice program ever to find a negative result. Students who received a voucher through the Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP) during the 2012-13 school year were 50 percent more likely to receive a failing score on the state math test than students who applied for but did not receive a voucher. The study also found negative effects on reading, science, and social studies tests.

The previous research on school choice had been almost unanimously positive. Out of a dozen previous random-assignment studies, 11 found positive results overall or for some subgroups, and only one found no statistically significant impact. Until now, none found any harm.

So what happened this time? As I explain at Education Next today:

Although not conclusive, there is considerable evidence that problem stemmed from poor program design. Regulations intended to guarantee quality might well have had the opposite effect. The [Louisiana Scholarship Program]’s high level of private-school regulation appears to have driven away better schools while attracting primarily lower-performing schools with declining enrollments that were desperate for more funding. 

Recession Over?

As an economist I am the first to admit that sometimes the methods and practices of economics can end up creating confusion rather than understanding.  The National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) recent announcement that the recession ended in June 2009 is one such example.

At the heart of this confusion is a difference in how the public sees a recession and how NBER defines it.  Most importantly, NBER views recessions as contractions.   Simply, “Is the economy growing or not?”  NBER uses that framework to then date business cycles from their peak to their trough.  For this reason, NBER will often date the beginning of a recession during a time when the economy feels strong (at its peak) and date the end of a recession when it feels weak (when it’s at the bottom).

Since this method seems at odds with how the public views the economy, why do economists use it?  Quite simply, it is a lot easier to spot, and agree on, turning points in the economy than it is to agree on when growth moves from weak to moderate to strong.

OK, enough on definitions.  Did we actually hit bottom in Summer 2009?  Looking at a variety of economic measures, I think it’s clear we hit bottom earlier–more like Spring 2009.  Again, I must emphasize: Hitting bottom is not the same thing as “everything is fine” - just ask anyone who’s personally hit bottom.  Just two examples of why I believe the contraction ended in early 2009; first: consumption, as one can see from the chart, actually hit bottom hear the end of 2008.

One of the defining characteristics of the current recession has been continued weakness in the labor market.  I would go as far as to say there has almost been a disconnect of the labor market from the general economy.  All that said, looking at the trend in layoffs and discharges indicates that separations from the labor force peaked near the end of 2008.  The graph below also illustrates why some are worried about a double-dip, as layoffs spiked again in the middle of 2010, although most of that is driven by the 2010 Census hires.

The point to all this is not to argue that the economy isn’t weak.  It obviously still is.  However, the economy has been growing, for at least a year, and under many measures, longer.  Interestingly enough, most measures of the economy hit bottom before a dime of stimulus money was spent.  The above charts are from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis FRED website.  Don’t take my word on these two charts.  Look at lots of other measures.  Not all, but most other measures seem to tell the same story.