Tag: murder

E-Verify Wouldn’t Have Prevented Mollie Tibbetts’ Murder

Shortly after Iowa prosecutors charged illegal immigrant Christian Rivera with the murder of Molly Tibbetts in August, his Iowa employer erroneously stated that E-Verify had approved him for legal work. That later turned out to be false as his employer, Yarrabee Farms, ran his name and Social Security Number (SSN) through another system called Social Security Number Verification Service (SSNVS) that merely verified that the name and number matched, not E-Verify.  That mix-up has inspired many to argue that an E-Verify mandate for all new hires would have stopped Rivera from working and, thus, prevented the murder of Mollie Tibbetts.  That’s almost certainly not true.  New details reveal that E-Verify would likely not have prevented Rivera from working.    

E-Verify is an electronic eligibility for employment verification system run by the federal government at taxpayer expense. Created as a pilot program in 1996, E-Verify is intended to prevent the hiring of illegal immigrants by verifying the identity information they submit for employment against federal government databases in the Social Security Administration and Department of Homeland Security.  The theory behind E-Verify is that illegal immigrants won’t have the identity documents to pass E-Verify (hold your laughter) so they won’t be able to work, thus sending them all home and preventing more from coming.  That naïve theory fails when confronted with the reality of the Rivera case.

Rivera submitted the name John Budd on an out of state drivers license and an SSN that matched that name to his employer, Yarrabee Farms, when he was hired in 2014.  Yarrabee Farms ran the SSN and name John Budd through the Social Security Number Verification Service (SSNVS) to guarantee that they matched for tax purposes (Yarrabee Farms confused SSNVS with E-Verify).  SSNVS matched the name with the SSN and approved Rivera-disguised-as-Budd to work. 

E-Verify would also have matched the name with the SSN and approved Rivera for work.  The systematic design flaw in E-Verify is that it only verifies the documents that a worker hands his employers, not the worker himself.  Thus, if an illegal immigrant hands the identity documents of an American citizen to an E-Verify-using employer then it verifies the documents and the worker with the documents gets the job – just as happened here with Rivera handing Yarrabee Farms the identity of John Budd.  That’s why 54 percent of illegal immigrants run through E-Verify are approved for legal work.  E-Verify is worse than a coin toss at identifying known illegal immigrants. 

Rivera’s identity would even have gotten around the DRIVE program in Iowa because he handed his employer an out-of-state drivers license.  DRIVE is intended to link other identity information from the Iowa state’s DMV to the job applicants as an extra layer of security.  If any of that information doesn’t match the information that the applicant gives to his employer then his employer is supposed to realize the applicant is an illegal worker.  However, the flaw in DRIVE is that it only works for the state-level DMV and fails to add extra security for out-of-state drivers licenses.  Thus, Rivera’s out-of-state identity would not have been caught by DRIVE.     

Rivera is a low-skilled and poor illegal immigrant from Mexico whose English language skills are so bad that he needs an interpreter in court.  Yet he would easily have been able to fool E-Verify, a sophisticated government immigration enforcement program praised by members of Congress, the President, and the head of at least one DC think-tank, by using somebody else’s name and SSN with a driver’s license from another state. 

A law passed in 1986 has required workers in the United States to present a government identification to work legally – a requirement that has resulted in an explosion in identity theft.  Rivera likely stole Budd’s identity to get a job, an unintended consequence of that 1986 law. A national E-Verify mandate will vastly expand identity theft

As a further wrinkle, if Yarrabee Farms found any of Rivera’s identity documents or information suspicious and confronted Rivera with their suspicions concerning Rivera’s identity, his name, race, or age, then Yarrabee Farms would likely have run afoul of other labor laws and exposed itself to a serious lawsuit.  The federal government expects employers to enforce immigration laws but not to the point that they can profile applicants.  The safe choice is not to profile anyone and hire those who present documents so long as they are not obviously fake.

The last wrinkle is that many businesses don’t comply with E-Verify in states where it is mandated.  In the second quarter of 2017, only 59 percent of new hires in Arizona were run through E-Verify even though the law mandates that 100 percent be run through.  Arizona has the harshest state-level immigration enforcement laws in the country and they can’t even guarantee compliance with E-Verify.  There is even evidence that Arizona’s E-Verify mandate temporarily increased property crime committed by a subpopulation that is more likely to be illegally present in the United States, prior to that population learning that E-Verify is easy to fool.  South Carolina, the state with the best-reputed enforcement of E-Verify, only had 55 percent compliance in the same quarter of 2017.  The notion that a lackluster Washington will do better than Arizona or South Carolina is too unserious a charge to rebut. 

Since SSNVS matched the name John Budd with a valid SSN and Rivera used an out-of-state drivers license, E-Verify would not have caught him.  E-Verify is a lemon of a system that is not a silver bullet to stop illegal immigration.  It wouldn’t have stopped Rivera from working legally in Iowa.  E-Verify’s cheerleaders should stop using the tragic murder of Mollie Tibbetts as a sales pitch for their failed government program.

 

Mexico Is Not Sending Its Murderers: Homicide Rates on the Mexican Border

President Trump tweeted this morning that, “One of the reasons we need Great Border Security is that Mexico’s murder rate in 2017 increased by 27% to 31,174 people killed, a record! The Democrats want Open Borders. I want Maximum Border Security and respect for ICE and our great Law Enforcement Professionals!”  He tweeted this because he’s spent the last few days stating that he would shut down the government if Congress did not adopt his proposed immigration reforms in the upcoming budget debate, especially the funding for the construction of a border wall.

Besides the political motivation for his tweet, President Trump seems to have assumed that crime in Mexico bleeds north into the United States, so more border security is required to prevent that from happening as murder rates begin to rise again in Mexico.  Although illegal immigrant incarceration rates are lower than they are for natives, illegal immigrant conviction rates in the border state of Texas are lower for almost every crime including homicide, and the vast majority of evidence indicates that illegal and legal immigrants are less crime-prone than natives, the President’s specific claim that murder rates spread from Mexico to the United States is different from most of the existing peer-reviewed literature. 

My colleague Andrew Forrester and I ran some simple regressions to test whether higher homicide rates in Mexican states that border the United States spread northward to U.S. states on the other side of the border.  It doesn’t make much sense to compare Mexican crime in the Yucatan Peninsula with that in Maine but, if President Trump’s theory is correct, then we should expect to see it cross from Baja California to California, for instance.  Homicide data for the Mexican border states come from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography.  American homicide data come from the Uniform Crime Reporting statistics at the FBI (files here).  Homicide rates in states in both countries are per 100,000 state residents which allows an apples-to-apples comparison.  We used data from 1997 through 2016 but were not able to include 2017 because U.S. crime data is still unavaiable for that year.  We decided to look exclusively at U.S. and Mexican border states because those are where we would expect crime to bleed over if such a thing happened. 

Figure 1 shows a negative relationship between homicide rates in U.S. border states and Mexican border states with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.46.  The coefficient is nearly identical when American homicide rates are lagged one year.  Although we did not include other controls, there is a negative relationship between homicides on the American side and the Mexican side.  In other words, when Mexican homicide rates go up then American rates tend to go down and vice versa.     

Homicide Rates in U.S. and Mexican Border States

Figure 2 shows the same data but with years on the X-axis.  Mexican border state homicide rates vary considerably over time, especially when that government decided to try to crack down on drug cartels, but U.S. border state homicide rates trended slowly downward over the entire time.  There is a negative relationship between Mexican homicide rates and homicide rates in U.S. border states. 

Homicide Rates in U.S. and Mexican Border States

Our figures and regressions above might not be capturing the whole picture.  Perhaps crime travels from Mexican border states and goes directly into the U.S. state that it is bordering.  That could be the source of President Trump’s worry.  We tested that in Figures 3-6 where we looked at how homicide rates in Mexican states contiguous to U.S. states are correlated with homicide rates there. 

Border Patrol Agent Deaths in the Line of Duty

Border Patrol agent Rogelio Martinez, 36, was recently laid to rest after dying in the line of duty. The cause of his death is a mystery and the government has released few details. A spokesman for the FBI said that Martinez was “not fired upon” but Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX) said Martinez was killed in “an attack.” A spokesperson for the National Border Patrol Council, a government union that represents Border Patrol agents, said that Martinez may have been bludgeoned to death by rocks. Another source claims that Martinez may have perished because of injuries he sustained in a fall down a culvert. More information will hopefully come forward in the coming days and weeks to clear up this mystery. Martinez’s untimely death is a tragedy regardless of the actual cause.

Many politicians, including President Trump, cited Martinez’s death as a reason for a border wall and more spending on security, but policy should rarely (if ever) be changed as a result of single incidents like these. Instead, properly analyzed data about how many Border Patrol agents are murdered in the line of duty should be a starting point so that we can at least see how deadly the occupation actually is. This information is unreported in news stories on Martinez’s death and I couldn’t find it in an online search, so I estimated it from publicly available data. The government records all Border Patrol agent and Customs officer deaths in the line of duty. I went through the deaths since 2003 and excluded Customs officers. That left 33 Border Patrol agent deaths since the formation of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in 2003 through November 19, 2017 (Table 1). More agents died in 2012 but 2004 had the highest rate of agent deaths at 0.028 percent of all Border Patrol agents or one out of every 3,606 agents on duty that year. From 2003 through 2017, the chance of a Border Patrol agent dying in the line of duty was about one in 7,968 per year.

Table 1

Border Patrol Agent Deaths Per Year

 

  Deaths Number of Agents Agents Per Death Percent Death Number of Murdered Agents Agents Per Murder
2003 1 10,717 10,717 0.009% 0 0
2004 3 10,819 3,606 0.028% 0 0
2005 0 11,264 0 0.000% 0 0
2006 2 12,349 6,175 0.016% 0 0
2007 4 14,923 3,731 0.027% 0 0
2008 2 17,499 8,750 0.011% 1 17,499
2009 3 20,119 6,706 0.015% 1 20,119
2010 3 20,558 6,853 0.015% 1 20,558
2011 2 21,444 10,722 0.009% 0 0
2012 5 21,394 4,279 0.023% 1 21,394
2013 0 21,394 0 0.000% 0 0
2014 3 20,863 6,954 0.014% 1 20,863
2015 0 20,273 0 0.000% 0 0
2016 3 19,828 6,609 0.015% 0 0
2017 2 19,500 9,750 0.010% 1 19,500
Total 33 262,944 7,968 0.013% 6 43,824

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

 

I determined the cause of death for each Border Patrol agent from the online blurbs on CBP’s website. About half of all agents who died on duty from 2003 through 2017 died in car accidents (Figure 1). About 18 percent died because of assault or murder and 18 percent due to other health-related accidents such as heart attacks or heat stroke. Most surprising, 12 percent died from drowning in accidents. I counted the death of Border Patrol agent Luis Aguilar as murder because a car driven by a suspected smuggler struck him. I counted the death of Border Patrol agent Nicholas D. Greenig as caused by a car accident because he struck a large animal with his patrol car. Agent Javier Vega Jr. was murdered while off duty but I counted his death as a result of murder because the CBP website records him as dying in the line of duty for this reason:

On September 20, 2016, it was determined that, in light of information identified during the intensive investigation completed by the Willacy County Sheriff’s Department, Agent Vega’s actions were indicative of his law enforcement training and that he instinctively reacted, placing himself in harm’s way to stop a criminal act and protect the lives of others. His death was later determined to have been in the line of duty.

Figure 1

Border Patrol Agent Cause of Death

 

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

On its surface, the death of agent Martinez seems to confirm the perception that Border Patrol agents have a dangerous job. But the danger of an occupation must be gauged in relation to the danger of other occupations or populations. About one in 7,968 Border Patrol agents died per year from 2003 through 2017. That compares favorably to all law enforcement officers who had a one in 3,924 chance of dying in the line of duty in 2011. Although incomplete data precludes an apples-to-apples comparison from 2003 through 2017, in 2011 the Border Patrol agent death rate was about one in 10,722 that year. In 2011, law enforcement officers were almost three times as likely to be killed in the line of duty as Border Patrol agents were. 

Car accidents account for about half of the deaths of Border Patrol agents during this time. Assuming that the number of 2016 and 2017 traffic fatalities across the United States are the same as they were in 2015, an American had about a one in 8,344 chance per year of dying in a traffic accident from 2003 through 2017. Border Patrol agents had a one in 16,434 annual chance of dying in a car accident from 2003 through 2017. In other words, Border Patrol agents were about half as likely to die in traffic accidents in the line of duty as Americans were in the course of their lives. A better form of this estimate would compare death rates per mile traveled but that information is not available for Border Patrol officers.

Six Border Patrol agents have been murdered in the line of duty since 2003, which means their annual chance of being murdered in the line of duty is one in 43,824. More than 238,000 Americans have been murdered since 2003 with a nationwide death rate of one in 19,431 per year. Regular Americans are more than twice as likely to be murdered in any year from 2003 through 2017 than Border Patrol agents were.

Border Patrol agents volunteered for a job that routinely places them in danger but that heightened danger does not translate into a higher chance of being murdered or dying in a car accident, when compared to all Americans, or dying in the line of duty, when compared to other law enforcement officers. Border Patrol equipment, training, and support likely explain that. The death of Border Patrol agent Rogelio Martinez is a tragedy but one that is thankfully rare.

Table 2

Border Patrol Agents, Cause of Death, and Year of Death, 2003-2017

Name Year Cause of Death
Rogelio Martinez 2017 Unknown (likely accident)
Isaac Morales 2017 Assault/Murder
David Gomez 2016 Accident (health)
Manuel A. Alvarez 2016 Car Accident
Jose D. Barraza 2016 Car Accident
Tyler R. Robledo 2014 Car Accident
Javier Vega, Jr. 2014 Assault/Murder
Alexander I. Giannini 2014 Car Accident
David R. Delaney 2012 Accident (health)
Nicholas J. Ivie 2012 Assault/Murder
Jeffrey Ramirez 2012 Accident (health)
James R. Dominguez 2012 Car Accident
Leopoldo Cavazos Jr. 2012 Car Accident
Eduardo Rojas Jr. 2011 Car Accident
Hector R. Clark 2011 Car Accident
Brian A. Terry 2010 Assault/Murder
Michael V. Gallagher 2010 Car Accident
Mark F. Van Doren 2010 Car Accident
Robert W. Rosas Jr. 2009 Assault/Murder
Cruz C. McGuire 2009 Accident (health)
Nathaniel A. Afolayan 2009 Accident (health)
Jarod C. Dittman 2008 Car Accident
Luis Aguilar 2008 Assault/Murder
Eric Cabral 2007 Accident (health)
Richard Goldstein 2007 Accident (drowning)
David J. Tourscher 2007 Car Accident
Ramon Nevarez Jr. 2007 Car Accident
David N. Webb 2006 Car Accident
Nicholas D. Greenig 2006 Car Accident
George B. DeBates 2004 Car Accident
Travis W. Attaway 2004 Accident (drowning)
Jeremy M. Wilson 2004 Accident (drowning)
James P. Epling 2003 Accident (drowning)

Source: Customs and Border Protection.

 Note:  This post was updated on February 15, 2018 to reflect facts from the most recent investigation into the death of Border Patrol Agent Rogelio Martinez.

Post 9/11 America Is Remarkably Safe

Yesterday was the 16th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Those attacks murdered 2,983 innocent people and remain the deadliest in world history by a factor of anywhere from 6.4 to 9.1 (many disagree whether the 1978 Cinema Rex fire in Iran that killed 470 people was terrorism). All of the 19 hijackers were foreign-born, 15 from Saudi Arabia, 2 from the United Arab Emirates, and one each from Lebanon and Egypt. They all entered lawfully, 18 on tourist visas and 1 on a student visa.

Many folks prophesied a new world of near constant destructive terrorist attacks on U.S. soil that would frequently rival 9/11. These predictions were repeated so frequently that a version of the phrase “a post 9/11 world” became clichéd.  That vision of a terrible future never happened.

Remarkably, the chance of dying in a terrorist attack after 9/11, no matter the origin of the attacker, was actually lower in the post 9/11 world of 2002-2016 than it was in the pre-9/11 world (14 years before the attacks). After 9/11, the annual chance of being murdered in an attack on U.S. soil committed by any terrorist was about 1 in 26.4 million per year – far lower than the 1 in 16.9 million per year prior to 9/11. The chance of being murdered by U.S. born terrorists in a domestic attack also decreased after 9/11 as it fell from about 1 in 18.1 million a year to 1 in 37.9 million per year (Table 1).

Foreign-born terrorists murdered 26 people on U.S. soil since 9/11 through the end of 2016, meaning the chance of being murdered in one of those attacks was about 1 in 176.6 million per year. That is more than double the 12 who were murdered by foreign-born terrorists on U.S. soil in the 14 years prior to 2001. In those 14 years prior to 9/11, the chance of being murdered in a terrorist attack committed by a foreign-born attacker was about 1 in 302.3 million per year.

Table 1 - Annual Chance of Being Murdered in a Terrorist Attack by the Attacker’s Country of Origin and Time Period

Source: Author’s expansion of “Terrorism and Immigration: A Risk Analysis.”

Obviously, a calculation of the terrorism risk over this entire time should include the murders committed by the 19 hijackers on 9/11, as I do here, here, and elsewhere. But the claim that the post-9/11 world is more deadly because those attacks jolted us into a new and more brutal terror equilibrium is simply not true (at least when considering domestic terrorism).

This post 9/11 safety effect could theoretically be the dividends of increased government anti-terror measures, though this is highly unlikely given this superb research on the lack of cost-benefit calculations in the allocation of anti-terrorism funding by experts John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart. The best explanation is that deadly terrorist attacks are rare because not many people are interested in killing strangers, most people who are interested in murdering strangers are incompetent, and many things have to happen for a terrorist attack to be successful – all while being chased by anti-terrorism police.  These four reasons, by themselves, explain why the risk is so small. We should all be thankful for that.

Immigration and Crime – What the Research Says

The alleged murder of Kate Steinle in San Francisco by illegal immigrant Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez has reignited the debate over the link between immigration and crime. Such debates often call for change in policy regarding the deportation or apprehension of illegal immigrants. However, if policies should change, it should not be in reaction to a single tragic murder.  It should be in response to careful research on whether immigrants actually boost the U.S. crime rates. 

With few exceptions, immigrants are less crime prone than natives or have no effect on crime rates.  As described below, the research is fairly one-sided.       

There are two broad types of studies that investigate immigrant criminality.  The first type uses Census and American Community Survey (ACS) data from the institutionalized population and broadly concludes that immigrants are less crime prone than the native-born population.  It is important to note that immigrants convicted of crimes serve their sentences before being deported with few exceptions.  However, there are some potential problems with Census-based studies that could lead to inaccurate results.  That’s where the second type of study comes in.  The second type is a macro level analysis to judge the impact of immigration on crime rates, generally finding that increased immigration does not increase crime and sometimes even causes crime rates to fall. 

Mexican Violence and Unauthorized Immigration

The murder rate in Mexico is a serious and troubling issue that I’m frequently asked about in relation to immigration. Although far lower than in other Central American countries, the Mexican murder rate is almost three times as high as it was in 2007 – and potentially much higher. But, do unauthorized Mexican immigrants come to the United States to avoid the violence in their home country?

I decided to plot the number of Mexican nationals apprehended by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on the left axis, an admittedly imperfect measurement of the intensity of unauthorized immigration, and the murder rate in Mexico per 100,000 people on the right axis.

Sources: Sources: Customs and Border Protection U.S. Border Patrol Statistics and Trans-Border Institute.

More Censorship in Venezuela

More than 16,000 murders occurred in Venezuela in 2009. That compares with 4,550 homicides reported in 1998, the year Hugo Chavez was elected president. The fact that Venezuela now has one of the world’s highest violent crime rates underscores the Chavez revolution’s utter neglect of the basic and proper functions of government.

Yet the problem is downplayed by the government, which inexplicably blames capitalism and poverty even though official figures show a fall in poverty rates. As if to highlight the government’s insensitivity, the president of state-run TeleSUR TV station recently laughed off the problem in a widely-seen CNN interview.

Last week, El Nacional newspaper published this graphic front-page photo of crime victims in a morgue. The official response from a government-controlled court has been to ban media from publishing violent images for one month. Thus, today El Nacional ran the front-page photo below, which reads “Censored” in the space where photos should be. The way the Bolivarian Revolution is going, Venezuelans can expect the government to continue resolving social problems in the same way.