Tag: incarceration

USCIS Report Shows that DACA Arrest Rate is Below that of Other U.S. Residents

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) released a report showing that 59,786 DACA-recipients, or about 7.8 percent of the 770,628 people who earned DACA, have been arrested since the program’s creation in 2012.  The report does not indicate convictions, only arrests.  Even worse, the report does not provide the comparable arrest rate for other populations, giving the false impression that that is a high number of arrests for such a small population.  However, some data released in the report does allow for a back of the envelope comparison between the DACA-arrest rate and the arrest rate for the non-DACA population.  The per capita arrest rate of DACA recipients is 46 percent below the non-DACA resident population.  Controlling for age, the arrest rate for DACA-kids is 63 percent below that of the non-DACA resident population.

USCIS’ report states that 7.8 percent of DACA recipients were arrested from 2012 through the first part of 2018.  The government does not record the number of people arrested elsewhere so I cannot compare the arrest rate of the population at large with the arrest rate of DACA-recipients.  However, the Bureau of Justice Statistics does record the number of arrests made per year and the USCIS report lists the number of arrests (there is a major difference between the number of arrests and the number of people arrested). 

The 59,789 DACA-recipients were arrested 88,478 times.  During the same time, there were about 67.6 million arrests of people who were not in DACA.  The number of arrests of DACA-recipients over the entire period is equal to about 11.5 percent of the entire population approved for the program.  However, the number of arrests nationwide of non-DACA recipients is equal to about 21.2 percent of the non-DACA resident population.  By this measure, there are about 46 percent fewer arrests per DACA-recipient than among non-DACA recipients.  Subtracting out immigration offenses from the DACA-recipients lowers their arrest rate to 10 percent, less than half of the non-DACA population.

Controlling for age gives an even more wildly disproportionate answer.  DACA recipients are aged 37 and below so that population is more likely to be arrested than others.  Keeping their arrest rate the same at 11.5 percent but adjusting the non-DACA population arrest rate for those aged 37 and younger to 31.4 percent means that non-DACA residents have an arrest rate about 2.7 times as great as the DACA arrest rate. 

There are many different ways to slice and dice these numbers.  Substituting different denominators for the average number of DACA recipients per year to the average U.S. resident population gives a similar arrest ratio.  USCIS points to even better results than our research on DACA criminality.  This might not be what they intended but the USCIS report shows that DACA-recipients are much less likely to be arrested than the rest of the resident U.S. population.   

Another Confusing Federal Report on Immigrant Incarceration

The Departments of Justice and Homeland Security (DOJ/DHS) will be publishing a quarterly report on immigrant incarceration in federal prisons because of an Executive Order issued by President Trump last year.  The most recent report found that 20 percent of all inmates in federal prison are foreign-born and about 93 percent of them are likely illegal immigrants.  Since immigrants are only about 13.5 percent of the population and illegal immigrants are only about a quarter of all immigrants, many are misreading it and coming away with the impression that foreign-born people are more crime-prone than natives. 

That is simply not true.

This new DOJ/DHS report only includes those incarcerated in federal prisons, which is not a representative sample of all incarcerated persons in the United States.  Federal prisons include a higher percentage of foreign-born prisoners than state and local correctional facilities because violations of immigration and smuggling laws are federal offenses and violators of those laws are incarcerated in federal prisons.        

The report itself almost admits as much with this important disclaimer: 

This report does not include data on the alien populations in state prisons and local jails because state and local facilities do not routinely provide DHS or DOJ with comprehensive information about their inmates and detainees—which account for approximately 90 percent of the total U.S. incarcerated population.

Immigration and Crime – What the Research Says

The alleged murder of Kate Steinle in San Francisco by illegal immigrant Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez has reignited the debate over the link between immigration and crime. Such debates often call for change in policy regarding the deportation or apprehension of illegal immigrants. However, if policies should change, it should not be in reaction to a single tragic murder.  It should be in response to careful research on whether immigrants actually boost the U.S. crime rates. 

With few exceptions, immigrants are less crime prone than natives or have no effect on crime rates.  As described below, the research is fairly one-sided.       

There are two broad types of studies that investigate immigrant criminality.  The first type uses Census and American Community Survey (ACS) data from the institutionalized population and broadly concludes that immigrants are less crime prone than the native-born population.  It is important to note that immigrants convicted of crimes serve their sentences before being deported with few exceptions.  However, there are some potential problems with Census-based studies that could lead to inaccurate results.  That’s where the second type of study comes in.  The second type is a macro level analysis to judge the impact of immigration on crime rates, generally finding that increased immigration does not increase crime and sometimes even causes crime rates to fall.