Tag: immigration

Most House GOP Candidates in Close Races Reject Trump’s Deportation Plan

A large number of Republican candidates are openly opposing Donald Trump’s immigration position. As I’ve noted before, 10 of the 11 GOP Senate candidates have campaigned on pro-immigration platforms. In the closest 40 House races according to Cook Political Report’s ratings, a majority of Republicans have already expressed openness to a pathway to legalization for unauthorized immigrants.

The large number of supporters of a compassionate immigration policy could be seen as surprising not only because the Republican presidential nominee has strongly opposed this approach, but also because only 6 of the districts are currently held by Democrats who back a legalization measure. However, it is important to note that these members are not out of step with their Republican constituents who, polls show nationally and on a state by state basis, support allowing unauthorized immigrants to stay.

Because some members were not directly asked about their views on legalization, support could be even greater, but here are the 21 members in tight races who have taken humane, pro-immigration positions:

1. Don Young (AK): “We want our country’s 11 million undocumented individuals to be welcomed and to have a place to belong – free of fear…. Immigrants have always recharged our country and have been reliable sources of economic growth, cultural diversity and innovation…. like our colleagues drafting the bill, we believe this legislation should… provide a clear and responsible path to citizenship for those already here.”

2. Scott Jones (CA-7): “For those folks who are here illegally, I would advocate, as I have always advocated, a pathway to legal status for each and every one of them if they can pass a background check.”

3. Jeff Denham (CA-10): “I believe our immigration system is broken and in need of real and effective reform. I support providing an earned path to citizenship for those who want it…. Reform will ensure that all undocumented immigrants are added to the tax rolls, ensuring that everyone pays their fair share.”

4. David Valadao (CA-21): “Immigration reform is something I’m still very supportive of and continue to work on behind the scenes…. Every bill that I’ve been a part of is about allowing immigrants who are here to go through a process to become legal. … For the people who are working hard in the fields, in the restaurant industry, in the service industry, I mean we’ve got to come up with a system that addresses the 11 million who are here. You have to have a process that makes sure that you have guest worker programs that work, visa programs that work.”

5. Darrell Issa (CA-49): “Beyond border security, any reform package must make an immediate determination of who stays and who goes, based on our national interests. Those who demonstrate the ability to contribute to our society in a meaningful way should have a path forward to guide them, be placed at the end of the legal-immigration line, meet the strict standards established and face a rigorous but fair application process. Those who are migrant workers should be put into a temporary guest-worker program.”

6. Mike Coffman (CO-6): “Immigration reform… has to be compassionate about keeping families together…  I cosponsored legislation this summer that would give [immigrant children of unauthorized immigrants] a legal status and then a path to citizenship… For the adults who knowingly broke the law who are here today, I think they ought to have the opportunity to come out of the shadows and have a legal status.”

7. David Jolly (FL-13): “I support… comprehensive immigration reform that has remediation and penalties and so forth…. I don’t support a pathway to citizenship for people who came here illegally. But I do support a pathway to legal status and residency.”

8. Brian Mast (FL-18): “I do not support a pathway to citizenship… But I am open to a conversation of a pathway to legal work status for people who are here in the United States.”

9. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26): “I have been for comprehensive immigration reform… We need to have a guest worker program… We need to create a path to citizenship for those families who are undocumented but are contributing to our economy. A lot of people talk about the undocumented but they don’t realize that these are some of the hardest workers.”

Less Populous States Stand to Gain the Most from State-Based Visas

In 2014, the Cato Institute published a policy analysis that argued that Congress should create a work visa program that would allow states to select some of the foreign workers that the federal government admits—a model that Canada has used for decades. All states would benefit from this approach, since they all suffer from low federal caps on visas and since they all have the best knowledge of their local labor markets. But the states that will likely benefit the most are states with lower populations.

While there is no breakdown of the total number of visas issued to workers by state, we know how many workers enter each state annually. This number is imprecise as a measure of the total number of workers in each state because it double counts people who leave the state and reenter during the year, but it is still useful for looking at the distribution of workers among the states.

Figure 1 presents the distribution of all worker entries and entries of workers under the most important category—the H temporary work visa—by grouping the states into three roughly equal baskets: 1) the very large states with more than five percent of the entire U.S. population, 2) those in the middle with 2 to 5 percent, and 3) those with 2 percent or less. As is readily apparent, the big four states—California, Texas, New York, and Florida—receive a much higher percentage of workers than their share of the population. The middle group of states receives only slightly less than their population share for all worker entries.

On the other hand, the smallest states receive not only fewer workers in absolute terms, but disproportionately less than other states compared to their population. These 34 states are home to 30 percent of all Americans, but receive just 18.6 percent of guest workers overall—an 11.4 percent difference between population share and worker share.  A similarly large gap can be seen for worker entries under the important H category.

Figure 1: Difference Between Share of All Worker Entries and Share of U.S. Population; Share of H Worker Entries and Share of the Population in 2014



Sources: DHS (Entries); Census (Population)

Muslim Immigration and Integration in the United States and Western Europe

Muslim immigrant assimilation in the United States is proceeding well. American Muslims have either similar or greater socio-economic status and levels of education than the average American. They are also active in civil and political society. However, this is not the case in Europe where Muslim immigrants tend to have worse labor market outcomes, are less well educated, and less socially integrated. The lack of assimilation and integration in Europe is affected by policies regarding multiculturalism, welfare, labor market regulation, citizenship, and guest worker laws that make integration more costly.

Integration in Europe

Social opinions show how Muslims in Europe are less integrated than in the United States. In Europe, there is a wide gap between Muslim and non-Muslim acceptance of homosexuality (Figure 1) and abortion (Figure 2) according to three surveys published in 2007 and 2009. The acceptance gap on these issues is the smallest in the United States – meaning that Muslims in the United States have opinions that are closer to the general public than in European countries (Figure 3).    

Figure 1

Is Homosexuality Morally Acceptable?


Sources: Pew and Gallup.

Figure 2

Is Abortion Morally Acceptable?


Sources: Pew and Gallup.

Figure 3

Acceptance Gap


Sources: Pew and Gallup.

Opinions on social issues are just one aspect of this gap in assimilation but an important one for judging how assimilated immigrants are into Western culture.  Although there are many other areas that could be compared, opinions of abortion and homosexuality show that Muslim Europeans are less well-assimilated than Muslims in the United States.

GOP Senate Candidates in Tight Races Reject Trump’s Anti-Immigrant Message

As Donald Trump doubled down on his anti-immigration message in last night’s debate, Republican candidates for Senate across the country are not adopting his lines. In fact, they are overwhelmingly going the other way, rejecting mass deportation and endorsing legal immigration and various forms of legalization for those immigrants illegally in the United States. Here are what the candidates in the tightest races are saying:

1. Arizona – John McCain

It comes as little surprise that Sen. McCain, a longtime proponent of immigration reform and coauthor of the Senate 2013 reform bill, should be running on an openly pro-immigrant platform. He touted his accomplishment at his Senate debate last week. “I was able to get immigration reform through the United States Senate,” he said. “That is the very big difference between having working groups and talking about it and legislative accomplishment, and I promise you that the Dreamers were part of immigration reform.”

2. Florida – Marco Rubio

Sen. Rubio also coauthored the 2013 reform bill that passed the Senate. Although he has backed away from that approach, he continued to take a pro-immigration position at his debate. “I personally know people, children included, who are in this country out of status, illegally brought here at a very young age, and I see the sadness that they’re going through. I want to fix the problem,” he said. “The second step would be to modernize our legal immigration system so that it’s not as bureaucratic, and it works better. … Republicans would support doing something very reasonable with people that are not criminals, that have been here a long time.”

3. Illinois – Mark Kirk

Sen. Kirk who voted for the 2013 reform bill defended his pro-immigrant position during his campaign. In a campaign ad in Spanish, he said, “When Donald Trump says bad things about immigrants, I have spoken out against him. I don’t support Trump. I’ve worked with Republicans and Democrats to reduce gang violence in Chicago. And I support immigration reform so families can stay together.”

4. Indiana – Todd Young

Rep. Young has previously endorsed a form of legal status for the unauthorized immigrants in the country. In his race, he appears to have backed off this position a bit, while still taking a much more pro-immigrant position than Trump. “Immigration should be attractive to Americans so long as immigrants come to our country to contribute to our economy and society. I strongly support legal immigration,” he said in response to questions from a local news outlet. “I would consider proposals which require those who have entered the U.S. illegally to apply for their visas from their home countries and not from within the US…. Congress should work to find a rational middle ground between granting an automatic path to citizenship for every illegal immigrant and a program of mass deportation.”

New Research Finds that Immigrant Crime Is Still Low

Last year we published a blog summarizing the research on how immigrants affect the crime rate in the United States. There are two major types of studies that examine this question.

The first uses Census data of the institutionalized population to investigate immigrant versus native incarceration rates. Although the Census evidence isn’t perfect because of potential issues with reporting immigration status and different types of incarceration, these studies show that immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than similarly-aged natives.  The second type is a macro-level or area study that looks at the crime rates in places that have experienced large waves of immigration.  These generally find that immigration either lowers or has little effect on crime rates.  The research on unauthorized immigrant crime rates is poor.

A few recent papers recently extended these findings.  The first by David Green seeks to determine whether immigrants affect violent and drug-related crime in the United States on the state-level.  It looks at state-level rates of violent crime and drug arrests pooled for the 2012-2014 years against pooled statistics on foreign-born and Mexican nationals by immigration status, specifically legal versus unauthorized immigrants.  Green finds no association between immigrant population size and increased violent crime.  However, he does find a small but statistically significant association between unauthorized immigrant population size and arrests for drug offenses.

Refugees, Immigrants, and the Polarization of American Foreign Policy

If I asked you whether Americans were more likely to name immigrants and refugees a critical threat to the United States in 1998 or in 2016, which year would you guess? Most people, I think, would quickly choose 2016. Most people, however, would be wrong.

According to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, in 1998 53% of Americans did so, compared to 43% in 2016. The error would be understandable, of course, given the homegrown terrorist attacks in Europe and the U.S. over the past year, Trump’s tough talk about Muslim immigrants, and the vigorous debate about Syrian refugees. Indeed, at first glance the numbers are puzzling.

When we break down the responses by political affiliation, however, we get our first clue about what is going on. As it turns out, in 1998 Republicans and Democrats were closely aligned in their assessments – 56% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats saw refugees and immigrants as a critical threat, a difference smaller than the margin of error in the survey. But by 2016 67% of Republicans did so compared to just 27% of Democrats.

Refugee Program Accepts 3 Syrian Women and Children For Every Man

Throughout his campaign, Donald Trump has been warning against accepting Syrian refugees. Last year, he said of refugees, “They’re all men. You look at it. There are so few women and there are so few children. And not only are they men, they’re young men.” We showed at the time that this claim was inaccurate, but with the fiscal year closing tomorrow, we have the information necessary to test it as a prediction—and yet no matter how you look at it, it’s unequivocally false.

Figure 1 shows how the State Department groups the ages of the 12,500 Syrians that it has resettled this year. As can be seen, the breakdown skews heavily toward children. In fact, half of all Syrian refugees in the United States are 13 years old or younger. This demonstrates that the flow is overwhelmingly families with small children.

Figure 1: Ages of Syrian Refugees in FY2016


Source: State Department

As Figure 2 shows, nearly three quarters of the Syrian refugee flow is women and young children under the age of 14. Nearly 90 percent of Syrian refugees who came this year were outside of the “young men” demographic—men ages 14 to 30. Donald Trump is simply confused.

Figure 2: Age and Gender Distribution of Syrian Refugees FY 2016


Source: State Department

The United States has a history of accepting refugees from war-torn areas. We shouldn’t allow inaccuracies about the threats posed by refugees to dissuade us from continuing in that tradition.