Tag: immigration

America’s Increasingly Meritocratic Immigration System

Many have started supporting a so-called merit-based immigration system since President Trump mentioned it a few months ago. A merit-based immigration system could mean just about anything but most define it as a system that admits more highly skilled and educated immigrants, as in Canada, and fewer lower-skilled and family-based immigrants as currently enter under America’s immigration system. Despite the lack of any significant legal or regulatory changes, new immigrants are becoming more highly educated immigrants over time even relative to natives.

The share of admitted immigrants who have at least a college education increased from 22 to 39 percent 1993 to 2015 (Figure 1). Over the same period, the share of admitted immigrants who are high school dropouts dropped from 37 percent to 27 percent. Virtually all of that change occurred since 2007 when illegal immigration slowed down and the number of Chinese and Indian immigrants began to grow relative to Mexicans. Although the American system does not select for education, it does not intrinsically favor the uneducated either.  

Figure 1
Share of New Immigrants by Education & Year of Admission

Court Rules the President Violated the 1965 Law with Executive Order

Last year, I put forward a statutory argument that President Trump’s proposal to ban immigrants from several majority Muslim countries was illegal because it violated a 1965 law that specifically banned discrimination against immigrants based on race, gender, nationality or place of residence or birth. On the night that the original executive order was released, I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times laying out the case again.

Now, finally, a ruling from a federal district court judge in Maryland addressed the issue, agreed with me in part, and partially stayed the executive order on this basis. This afternoon, the Trump administration appealed the ruling to the Fourth Circuit. The portion of ruling relevant to the statutory argument states:

Plaintiffs argue that by generally barring the entry of citizens of the Designated Countries, the Second Order violates Section 202(a) of the INA, codified at 8 U.S.C. 1152(a) (“1152(a)”), which provides that, with certain exceptions:

No person shall receive any preference or priority or be discriminated against in the issuance of an immigrant visa because of his race, sex, nationality, place of birth, or place of residence.

Several House Republicans Introduce a Bill to Legalize Young Immigrants

Eleven House Republicans are pushing new legislation to provide a pathway to legal status for young immigrants who entered the United States as children—commonly known as “Dreamers.”* Congressman Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) and ten other Republican members introduced Recognizing America’s Children (RAC) Act today (PDF). The bill will benefit the United States economy and provide certainty for a group of young people who are deserving of a humane approach.

The bill would grant conditional legal permanent status to immigrants who have arrived before the age of 16, have been in the United States since January 1, 2012, have graduated high school, and have either been accepted into college or vocational school, applies to enlist in the military, or works with an existing valid work authorization. The conditional status will be cancelled if they become dependent on government, are dishonorably discharged from the military, or are unemployed for more than a year. The conditional status woudl become permanent after 5 years if they graduate from college or vocational school, are honorably discharged from the military or has served for 3 years, or have been employed for at least 48 months.

This Agency Will Get More Money Than Ever For Doing Less Than Ever

One of Donald Trump’s first actions as president was to sign a presidential memorandum freezing federal government employment. But the order specifically exempts certain federal agencies, including all military personnel and all law enforcement. At the same time that he signed this supposed hiring freeze, he also signed an executive order requiring that the hiring of 5,000 new agents for Customs and Border Protection. This increase would ramp up Border Patrol spending to its highest levels ever and do it at a time when the agency is doing less than it has in decades.

First of all, this increase in agents is being proposed a time when the number of border crossers is at record lows. Since 2010, each border agent apprehended fewer than 2 crossers per month, as the figure below shows. This is less than 1 every other week. This figure includes a large number of “apprehensions” of asylum seekers and unaccompanied children who simply turn themselves over to border agents and who made up 1 in 3 apprehensions last year. Thus, the actual number of border crossers that Border Patrol agents needed to race down was just 14 per agent for the entire year. That means that each agent caught on average someone sneaking into the United States once every 26 days in 2016.

At the same time, Congress continues to throw enormous sums at this agency. Border Patrol has spent an average of $172,000 per agent from 2000 to 2016. This amount has fluctuated between a high of $205,000 in 2006 to a low of $146,000 in 2009. The median has been $176,000, and last year’s total was $183,000. Thus, this hiring surge will likely cost almost $1 billion per year. A leaked Border Patrol memo concludes that the costs of “recruiting, hiring, supporting, and training” the new agents will be $328 million in fiscal year 2017 (which ends in October) and $1.884 billion in fiscal year 2018, meaning that the price tag could be even greater than my projection. The GOP Congress has increased the Border Patrol budget in real terms by only $223 million since 2011.

Figure: Apprehensions Per Border Patrol Agent and Border Patrol Budgets (2016$)                                          

 

Sources: CBP(agents), CBP (apprehensions), CBP (Budgets, PCE-adjusted figures)

Any increase of this magnitude will require special appropriations from Congress, meaning that at most the president’s executive order could speed up the hiring of agents provided by Congress. But even still, Border Patrol has struggled to meet its hiring mandate of 21,380 agents as it is. Since 2012, so many agents are leaving the force that the agency has struggled to keep up. “We are not able to hire as fast as attrition,” CBP Commissioner Gil Kerlikowske told Congress last year. He asked Congress to reduce the mandate by 300.

Big Data Tool For Trump’s Big Government Immigration Plans

During his campaign President Trump made it clear that his administration would strictly enforce immigration law while also seeking to limit immigration. Trump’s executive orders so far are consistent with his campaign rhetoric, including a revitalization of the controversial 287(g) program, threats to withdraw grants from so-called “Sanctuary Cities,” the construction of a wall on the southern border, a temporary ban on immigration from six Muslim-majority countries, and the hiring of 10,000 more Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Recent reporting reveals that these agents, tasked with implementing significant parts of Trump’s immigration policy agenda, will have access to an intelligence system that should concern all Americans who value civil liberties.

Earlier this month The Intercept reported on Investigative Case Management (ICM), designed by Palantir Technologies. ICE awarded Palantir a $41 million contract in 2014 to build ICM. ICM is scheduled to be fully operational by September of this year.

Here is The Intercept’s breakdown of how ICM works:

ICM funding documents analyzed by The Intercept make clear that the system is far from a passive administrator of ICE’s case flow. ICM allows ICE agents to access a vast “ecosystem” of data to facilitate immigration officials in both discovering targets and then creating and administering cases against them. The system provides its users access to intelligence platforms maintained by the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and an array of other federal and private law enforcement entities. It can provide ICE agents access to information on a subject’s schooling, family relationships, employment information, phone records, immigration history, foreign exchange program status, personal connections, biometric traits, criminal records, and home and work addresses.

Deconstructing Trump’s Security Defense of His Immigration Ban

Federal courts criticized President Trump for initially failing to demonstrate that his executive order suspending immigration from several majority-Muslim countries was based on a real threat to the country. In his revised order, President Trump was careful to include specific evidence to support the idea that refugees and immigrants from these countries pose a threat to the United States and that banning immigration temporarily to review vetting procedures is therefore justified.

Yet the president’s evidence, laid out in a single paragraph in the order, is so exceptionally weak that it exposes his security defense as little more than a fig-leaf to cover his blanket discrimination.

  • The executive order provides no evidence for singling out certain countries.

The executive order states:

Recent history shows that some of those who have entered the United States through our immigration system have proved to be threats to our national security.

This vague language provides no estimate of the level of the threat. The Cato Institute’s recent paper on immigration and terrorism risk does estimate that level: a U.S. resident had a 1 in 3.61 million chance of being killed by a foreign-born terrorist from 1975 to 2015. For comparison, a person had a 1 in 14 thousand chance of being killed in a regular homicide. There is simply no evidence of intolerable terrorism risk from the immigration system generally or from these countries in particular. No person from the six banned countries has killed any U.S. resident in a terrorist attack during those years.

Moreover, two Department of Homeland Security assessments have also rejected the argument that certain countries pose a unique threat to national security. The first stated that “country of citizenship is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of potential terrorist activity” because, of the 82 individuals* who died in pursuit of or were convicted of any terrorism-related offense, “more than half were native-born United States citizens. Of the foreign-born individuals, they came from 26 different countries.” The second assessment concluded that “most foreign-born, U.S.-based violent extremists likely radicalized several years after their entry,” meaning increased vetting would have no impact.

  • The executive order cites convictions that were not for terrorism offenses.

The executive order states:

Since 2001, hundreds of persons born abroad have been convicted of terrorism-related crimes in the United States.

“Terrorism-related” includes any crime that begins with a terrorism investigation. As my colleague Alex Nowrasteh has described, less than half of the 488 cases of foreign-born people with “terrorism-related” convictions—in a list published by Attorney General Jeff Sessions—were actually convicted of a terrorism offense. Mr. Sessions even included thieves who stole a couple of trucks of cereal. Moreover, only 8 percent of the foreign-born residents with terrorism-related convictions (40 people total) actually planned a terrorist attack inside the United States.

  • The executive order cites a case where the individuals were not planning a domestic attack.

But surely these 40 individuals were so dangerous that it makes sense to shut down our immigration system from these places for a while. The executive order provides two examples to attempt to highlight the danger:

… in January 2013, two Iraqi nationals admitted to the United States as refugees in 2009 were sentenced to 40 years and to life in prison, respectively, for multiple terrorism-related offenses.

My colleague Alex Nowrasteh reviewed this case yesterday—two Iraqi interpreters who attempted to send weapons to Iraq to aid insurgents there. First, they were not planning an attack here, and second, even if they were, this new order specifically exempts those who worked for the U.S. government, so this order would not apply to them. Third, President Obama instituted new vetting procedures that would have caught them anyway. If the goal was to frighten the public, this is about the worst case to cite.

Four Ways the President’s New Immigration Ban Undercuts His Own Arguments

President Trump signed a new executive order temporarily banning all immigration from several majority-Muslim countries. The entire point of the new order is to place his ban on more secure legal footing, but in several respects, the new order actually undermines the defenses that he has given over the past month.

“Delaying implementation puts our country in peril!”

After a judge temporarily blocked enforcement of the original order for a few days to get a hearing to listen to further arguments on both sides, President Trump tweeted:

Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!

In other words, the delay threatened U.S. security. Yet this new executive order does not become effective for more than a week. Does the president’s delayed rollout also “put our country in peril”? The president’s legal team will have a more difficult time arguing that another judicial delay will cause “irreparable harm” to the U.S. this time.

“Current vetting is totally inadequate!”

President Trump in his speech to Congress said:

It is not compassionate, but reckless, to allow uncontrolled entry from places where proper vetting cannot occur. …That is why my administration has been working on improved vetting procedures.

In other words, these nationalities must be completely banned because the current vetting is worthless. Yet this new order allows people who currently have a valid visa to come. If the vetting process is so inadequate, then exempting current visa holders makes no sense. They are still a threat even if they have gone through the process. 

“This is about better vetting, not banning people.”

The president in his original executive order stated:

To ensure that adequate standards are established to prevent infiltration by foreign terrorists or criminals… I hereby suspend entry into the United States… of such persons for 90 days.

Thus, the whole point of this “temporary” ban is to give the administration 90 days to review the vetting. It’s not about keeping people out. If that’s so, then why does the new executive order restart the clock to 90 days? 37 days have passed since the order was enacted. Why would the time when the prior order was suspended not count against the 90-day review? It seems obvious that it’s because the review was a fraud, and the real goal is about banning people. It was unable to accomplish its goal due to the judge’s order, so the new order restarts.

The new order also cites the case of a Somali who was brought over when he was a child who then became a terrorist as a reason for the ban. Yet that is not a failure of vetting; that is a failure of assimilation. Using this example would imply that this ban is not about vetting and that the president has no plans to keep it temporary.