Tag: immigrants

The Age and Sex of Criminal Immigrants

In our recent brief on immigrant crime, we focused on the 18 to 54 age range when looking at the incarcerated and non-incarcerated populations. This was necessary because the American Community Survey data for weighted responses does not distinguish between the type of group quarters – which are prisons, universities and colleges, mental health facilities, nursing homes, and others.

By narrowing our focus to those in the 18 to 54 age range we were able to cut out about 1.4 million folks in elderly care facilities but only excluded about 206,000 prisoners or about 9.2 percent of the total. Excluding those under the age of 18 also removed most respondents in mental health facilities but only decreased the adult criminal population by 0.2 percent.

Figure 1 did not make it into our final brief but it shows a big difference in the distribution of ages between the three groups we examined. The median age of illegal immigrants and natives is 35 – almost exactly in the middle of the 18 to 54 age range. Interestingly, there is a dip in the age distribution for natives in their late thirties and early forties while the age distribution of illegal immigrants is shaped like a bell. In contrast, the median for legal immigrants was 41 which is on the older side of the distribution.

Figure 1
Age (18-54) Distribution of Illegal Immigrants, Legal Immigrants, and Natives

Source: ACS and authors’ calculations.

Criminals are disproportionately young so it would be reasonable to expect natives to be more crime-prone before the age of 27 and illegal immigrants to have a higher crime rate than legal immigrants. That could explain part of the difference in crime rates between natives and illegal immigrants. The surprising result is that illegal immigrants are so much less crime prone when immigration-only offenders are excluded even though they are younger than legal immigrants and have a median age that is the same as natives.  The young age and low education of illegal immigrants are consistent with more criminality in other populations.

The most surprising finding from our brief is that illegal immigrant women are less than half as likely to be incarcerated as women who are legal immigrants or natives (Figure 2). Illegal immigrants are slightly less likely to be women in this age range, only 48.5 percent compared to 51 percent for legal immigrants and 50 percent for natives, but that doesn’t explain the difference in rates. It could be related to low female illegal immigrant labor force participation rates (LFPR) or caused by the same mechanism that induces those lower LFPRs.

Figure 2
Characteristics of Prisoners by Sex and Nativity, Ages 18-54

 

Natives

Legal Immigrants

lllegal Immigrants

All

Female

11.47%

10.73%

4.58%

11.06%

Male

88.53%

89.27%

95.42%

88.94%

 Source: ACS and authors’ calculations.

 

 

Little National Security Benefit to Trump’s Executive Order on Immigration

Tomorrow, President Trump is expected to sign an executive order enacting a 30-day suspension of all visas for nationals from Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.  Foreigners from those seven nations have killed zero Americans in terrorist attacks on U.S. soil between 1975 and the end of 2015.  Six Iranians, six Sudanese, two Somalis, two Iraqis, and one Yemini have been convicted of attempting or carrying out terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Zero Libyans or Syrians have been convicted of planning a terrorist attack on U.S. soil during that time period.

Many other foreigners have been convicted of terrorism-related offenses that did not include planning a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.  One list released by Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) details 580 terror-related convictions since 9/11. This incomplete list probably influenced which countries are temporarily banned, and likely provided justification for another section of Trump’s executive order, which directs the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to release all information on foreign-born terrorists going forward, and requires additional DHS reports to study foreign-born terrorism.

I exhaustively evaluated Senator Sessions’ list of convictions based on publicly available data and discovered some startling details.

Immigrants and Patriotism

Donald Trump’s campaign has certainly galvanized feelings of nationalism and patriotism.  John Fonte and John O’Sullivan even wrote that Trump’s election victory represent a “return of American nationalism.”  It’s no coincidence then that he spoke about immigration as much as he did.  There is a common belief that immigrants and their descendants are less patriotic than other Americans. Yet rarely do proponents of this idea bring facts to the table to support their claims. 

A prominent academic paper by Jack Citrin and others challenges the idea that Hispanic Americans are less patriotic.  On the opposite side, responses from a Harris Interactive Survey purport to show less patriotism among immigrants.  Fortunately, the General Social Survey asks many questions about patriotism in 2004 and 2014.  The questions generally show that immigrants and Hispanics have patriotic feelings virtually identical to those of other Americans.

New Research Finds that Immigrant Crime Is Still Low

Last year we published a blog summarizing the research on how immigrants affect the crime rate in the United States. There are two major types of studies that examine this question.

The first uses Census data of the institutionalized population to investigate immigrant versus native incarceration rates. Although the Census evidence isn’t perfect because of potential issues with reporting immigration status and different types of incarceration, these studies show that immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than similarly-aged natives.  The second type is a macro-level or area study that looks at the crime rates in places that have experienced large waves of immigration.  These generally find that immigration either lowers or has little effect on crime rates.  The research on unauthorized immigrant crime rates is poor.

A few recent papers recently extended these findings.  The first by David Green seeks to determine whether immigrants affect violent and drug-related crime in the United States on the state-level.  It looks at state-level rates of violent crime and drug arrests pooled for the 2012-2014 years against pooled statistics on foreign-born and Mexican nationals by immigration status, specifically legal versus unauthorized immigrants.  Green finds no association between immigrant population size and increased violent crime.  However, he does find a small but statistically significant association between unauthorized immigrant population size and arrests for drug offenses.

Immigration and Terrorism

Cato published a paper of mine today entitled “Terrorism and Immigration: A Risk Analysis.”  I began this paper shortly after the San Bernardino terrorist attack in December last year when it became clear that few had attempted a terrorism risk analysis of immigration in general, let alone focusing on individual visa categories.  There were few studies on the immigration status of terrorists and the vast majority of them were qualitative rather than quantitative.  Inspired by the brilliant work of John Mueller and Mark Stewart, I decided to make my own.  

From 1975 through the end of 2015, 154 foreign-born terrorists murdered 3024 people on U.S. soil.  During that same time period, over 1.14 billion foreigners entered the United States legally or illegally.  About 7.4 million foreigners entered the United States for each one who ended up being a terrorist.  Startlingly, 98.6 percent of those 3024 victims were murdered on 9/11 (I did not count the terrorists as victims, obviously).  However, not every terrorist is successful.  Only 40 of those 154 foreign-born terrorists actually ended up killing anyone on U.S. soil.    

Immigrants frequently enter the United States on one visa and adjust their status to another.  Many tourists and other non-immigrants frequently enter legally and then fall out of status and become illegal immigrants.  I focused on the visas foreigners used to enter the United States because applications for that visa are when security screenings are initially performed. 

Immigrant Olympians

Many noticed the refugee team competing in the 2016 Rio Olympics but few noticed the immigrants on the American team.  As far as I can tell, 47 out of the 554 American athletes were born in another country although some of them are probably the children of American citizens born abroad.  Thus, 8.5 percent of American Olympians were born in another country.  However, immigrants are underrepresented among Olympians because 13.3 percent of the U.S. population is foreign-born.  Despite being underrepresented as a whole, immigrants are more likely to be in some sports rather than others.

Immigrants are overrepresented in sports to the left of the red line while they are less likely to be Olympians in sports to the right, compared to their percent of the U.S. population (Figure 1).  There are no immigrants representing the United States in archery to weightlifting on the right-hand side of Figure 1.  It’s also important to note that many of the sports where immigrants are overrepresented have the fewest number of athletes.  For instance, there are only two American synchronized swimmers and six American table tennis players.  

Figure 1

Foreign Born as a Percentage of Each U.S. Team

Source: TeamUSA.org Sortable Roster

These foreign-born athletes also come from countries on every continent (Figure 2).  Kenya, China, and the United Kingdom are the top three countries of origin. Charles Jock, who will run the 800-meter race for the United States, actually lived in a refugee camp in Ethiopia for a time as a child before settling in the United States with his family.

Figure 2

Foreign Born Athletes by Country of Origin

Country of Origin

Number of Athletes

Kenya

5

China

4

United Kingdom

4

Australia

3

Bulgaria

2

Cuba

2

Japan

2

Poland

2

Russia

2

Albania

1

Brazil

1

Canada

1

Denmark

1

Eritrea

1

Ethiopia

1

France

1

Germany

1

Hong Kong

1

Italy

1

Mexico

1

Montenegro

1

Netherlands

1

Nigeria

1

Philippines

1

Somalia

1

South Africa

1

Switzerland

1

Trinidad and Tobago

1

Turkey

1

Ukraine

1

Source: TeamUSA.org Sortable Roster

Foreign-born Americans competing in the Olympics come from all over the world but are concentrated in a handful of sports.  Unfortunately, there is not enough public information about the athletes who are the children of immigrants - like Steven Lopez who is competing in Tae Kwon Do.  Regardless, many immigrants are competing for the U.S. Olympic team in Rio.

Measles Vaccination Rates and Immigration

A recent outbreak of measles at the Eloy Detention Center has raised some concerns over disease and immigration.  The disease was carried in by an immigrant who was detained, allowing it to spread among some of the guards who were not vaccinated.  The Detention Center has since claimed that it vaccinates all migrants who are there and is working on getting all of its employees vaccinated.  Regardless, how much should we worry about measles brought in by unvaccinated immigrants?  Very little.

First, measles vaccines are highly effective at containing the disease.  There are two primary measles vaccinations.  The first is the MCV-1 which should be administered to children between the ages of nine months and one year.  MCV-2 vaccinations are administered later, at the age of 15 to 18 months in countries where measles actively spreads.  In countries with very few cases of measles, like the United States, the MCV-2 is optional and is not typically administered until the child begins schooling. 

Second, the nations that send immigrants tend to have high vaccination rates.  The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF report the measles vaccination rates for most countries.  Figure 1 shows those rates for 2014 by major immigrant sending country.  For the MCV-1, the United States is in the middle of the pack with 92 percent coverage and no data reported for MCV-2.  The countries of El Salvador, Costa Rica, Mexico, Vietnam, Cuba, China, and South Korea all have higher MCV-1 vaccination rates than in the United States. 

Six countries do have lower vaccination rates than the United States although Indian and Filipino immigrants are more highly educated than their former countrymen, indicating that their vaccination rates are higher before beginning the immigration process.  Furthermore, legal immigrants must show they are vaccinated, meaning that the relatively low vaccination rates in some of those countries of origin don’t reflect vaccination rates among the population of immigrants here.  

However, the U.S. government’s vaccination requirements indicate that unauthorized immigrants are possibly less likely to be immunized than legal immigrants.  One way to increase vaccination rates among all immigrants, legal and illegal, would be to make green cards available to immigrants who are more likely to come unlawfully, thus guaranteeing that they are vaccinated.

 

Figure 1

MCV-1 Vaccination Rates, 2014

 

Source: WHO-UNICEF

In a more worrying trend, vaccine refusal rates are up among the native-born Americans in wealthy enclaves in California.      

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