Tag: hurricanes

A Climate of Science Deception

Former Energy Department Undersecretary Steven Koonin caused quite a stir yesterday in an interview with Mary Kissel of The Wall Street Journal when he stated Federal scientists purposefully misled the public about climate change. He recounted that the 2014 National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in the United States emphasized a dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane power beginning in 1980. However, this conveniently chosen segment of the historical record does not tell the entire story—the narrative that hurricanes are right now getting more frequent and intense due to climate change just does not stand up to scrutiny.

The offending figure is on Page 42 of the document (reproduced here). It is in Chapter 2 of the report, which is called “Our Changing Climate.”

These are graphs of something called the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific hurricanes. Note that the data begins in 1970 and ends in 2009. The text explains the beginning date by saying “there is considerable uncertainty in the record prior to the satellite era (early 1970s).”

This is true, but phenomenally disingenuous. Another hurricane scientist, conspicuously absent from the author list, is Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center, who developed the Center’s historical hurricane archive, known as HURDAT2. According to Landsea, the problem in the early record (which should be obvious) is that some storms will be missed, not the other way around! In his words, in a 2013 article in Monthly Weather Review, “Some storms were missed, and many intensities are too low in the pre-aircraft reconnaissance era (before 1944 in the western half of the basin) and in the pre-satellite era (before 1972 for the entire basin).

Therefore, prior to 1972, any history is likely to underestimate the PDI rather than overestimate it.

Recap of Hurricane Hermine and Global Warming

 Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

For more than two weeks Hurricane Hermine (including, its pre-hurricane and post-hurricane life) was prominent in the daily news cycle.  It threatened, at one time or another, destruction along U.S. coastlines from the southern tip of Florida westward to New Orleans and northward to Cape Cod.  Hurricane/global warming stories, relegated to the hell of the formerly attractive by the record-long absence of a major hurricane strike on U.S. shores, were being spiffed up and readied for publication just as soon as disaster would strike.  But, alas, Hermine didn’t cooperate, arguably generating more bluster in the press than on the ground, although some very exposed stretches of North Florida did incur some damage.  

Like Jessie, Woody and Stinky Pete in Toy Story 2, the hurricane/global warming stories have been put back in their boxes (if only they could be sent to a museum!).  

But, they didn’t have to be. There was much that could have been written speculating on the role of global warming in the Hermine’s evolution—but it’s just not politically correct.

With a bit of thought-provocation provided by newly-minted Cato Adjunct Scholar Dr. Ryan Maue—one of the best and brightest minds in the  world on issues of tropical cyclone/climate interactions (and other extreme weather types)—we’ll review Hermine’s life history and consider what factors “consistent with” human-caused climate change may have shaped its outcome.

The Buzz on Alex and Global Warming

Of course we’re referring to Hurricane Alex here, which blew up in far eastern Atlantic waters thought to be way too cold to spin up such a storm.  Textbook meteorology says hurricanes, which feed off the heat of the ocean, won’t form over waters cooler than about  80°F.  On the morning of January 14, Alex exploded over waters that were a chilly 68°.

Alex is (at least) the third hurricane observed in January, with others in 1938 and 1955.  The latter one, Hurricane Alice2, was actually alive on New Year’s Day.

The generation of Alex was very complex.  First, a garden-variety low pressure system formed over the Bahamas late last week and slowly drifted eastward.  It was derived from the complicated, but well-understood processes associated with the jet stream and a cold front, and that certainly had nothing to do with global warming.

The further south cold fronts go into the tropical Atlantic, the more likely that they will just dissipate, and that’s what happened last week, too.  Normally the associated low-pressure would also wash away.  But after it initially formed near the Bahamas  and drifted eastward, it was  in a region where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are running about 3°F above the long-term average consistent  with a warmer world. This may have been just enough to fuel the persistent remnant cluster of thunderstorms that meandered in the direction of Spain.

Over time, the National Hurricane Center named this collection “Alex” as a “subtropical” cyclone, which is what we call a tropical low pressure system that doesn’t have the characteristic warm core of a hurricane.

On the Bright Side: Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal During Warmer and Colder Phases of ENSO and the PDO

While the hypothesis that tropical cyclones will become both more frequent and more intense as planetary temperatures rise has long been debated, real-world evidence has consistently refuted it (see, for example, the many reviews of this subject posted under the heading of Hurricanes at the CO2 Science website). The latest example is the work of Girishkumar et al. (2015), who examined over five decades of tropical cyclone (TC) data from the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the Indian Ocean. Specifically, the authors “investigated how the relationship between ENSO and TCs activity in the BoB during October–December varies on decadal time scale with respect to PDO.”

You Ought to Have a Look: Climate Change Subtleties, Hurricanes, and Chocolate Bunnies

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

We highlight a couple of headlines this week that made us chuckle a bit, although what they portend is far from funny.

The first was from the always amusing “Energy and Environment” section of the Washington Post. Climate change beat writer Chris Mooney penned a piece headlined “The subtle — but real — relationship between global warming and extreme weather events” that was a hit-you-over-the-head piece about how human-caused global warming could be linked to various weather disasters of the past week, including the floods in Houston, the heatwave in India and hurricanes in general.

Mooney starts out, lamenting:

Last week, some people got really mad at Bill Nye the Science Guy. How come? Because he had the gall to say this on Twitter:

Billion$$ in damage in Texas & Oklahoma. Still no weather-caster may utter the phrase Climate Change.

Nye’s comments, and the reaction to them, raise a perennial issue: How do we accurately parse the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events, as they occur in real time?

It’s a particularly pressing question of late, following not only catastrophic floods in Texas and Oklahoma, but also a historic heatwave in India that has killed over 2,000 people so far, and President Obama’s recent trip to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, where he explicitly invoked the idea that global warming will make these storms worse (which also drew criticism).

As the Nye case indicates, there is still a lot of pushback whenever anyone dares to link climate change to extreme weather events. But we don’t have to be afraid to talk about this relationship. We merely have to be scrupulously accurate in doing so, and let scientists lead the way.

You Ought to Have a Look: Science Round Up—Less Warming, Little Ice Melt, Lack of Imagination

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

As Pope Francis, this week, focused on examining the moral issues of climate change (and largely ignoring the bigger moral issues that accompany fossil fuel restrictions), he pretty much took as a given that climate change is “a scientific reality” that requires “decisive mitigation.” Concurrently, unfolding scientific events during the week were revealing a different story.

First and foremost, Roy Spencer, John Christy and William Braswell of the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH)—developers and curators of the original satellite-derived compilation of the temperature history of the earth’s atmosphere—released a new and improved version of their iconic data set. Bottom line: the temperature trend in the lower atmosphere from the start of the data (1979) through the present came in as 0.114°C/decade (compared with 0.14°C in the previous data version). The new warming trend is less than half what climate models run with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions project to have occurred.

While the discrepancy between real world observations and climate model projections of temperature rise in the lower atmosphere has been recognized for a number of years, the question has remained as to whether the “problem” lies within the climate models or the observations. With this new data release, the trend in the UAH data now matches very closely with the trend through an independent compilation of the satellite-temperature observations maintained by a team of researchers at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). The convergence of the observed data sets is an indication the climate models are the odd man out.

As with most long-term, real-world observations, the data are covered in warts. The challenge posed to Spencer et al. was how to splice together remotely sensed data collected from a variety of instruments carried aboard a variety of satellites in unstable orbits—and produce a product robust enough for use in climate studies. The details as to how they did it are explained as clearly as possible in this post over at Spencer’s website (although still quite a technical post). The post provides good insight as to why raw data sets need to be “adjusted”—a lesson that should be kept in mind when considering the surface temperature compilations as well. In most cases, using raw data “as is” is an inherently improper thing to do, and the types of adjustments that are applied may vary based upon the objective.

Here is a summary of the new data set and what was involved in producing it:

Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature data set is by far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years of global temperature monitoring. The two most significant changes from an end-user perspective are (1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) temperature trend from +0.140 C/decade to +0.114 C/decade (Dec. ’78 through Mar. ’15); and (2) the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution. We describe the major changes in processing strategy, including a new method for monthly gridpoint averaging; a new multi-channel (rather than multi-angle) method for computing the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product; and a new empirical method for diurnal drift correction… The 0.026 C/decade reduction in the global LT trend is due to lesser sensitivity of the new LT to land surface skin temperature (est. 0.010 C/decade), with the remainder of the reduction (0.016 C/decade) due to the new diurnal drift adjustment, the more robust method of LT calculation, and other changes in processing procedures.

Figure 1 shows a comparison of the data using the new procedures with that derived from the old procedures. Notice that in the new dataset, the temperature anomalies since about 2003 are less than those from the previous version. This has the overall effect of reducing the trend when computed over the entirety of the record.

Figure 1. Monthly global-average temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere from Jan. 1979 through March, 2015 for both the old and new versions of LT (source: www.drroyspencer.com)

 

Figure 1. Monthly global-average temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere from Jan. 1979 through March 2015 for both the old and new versions of LT. (Source: www.drroyspencer.com)

While this new version, admittedly, is not perfect, Spencer, Christy, and Braswell see it as an improvement over the old version. Note that this is not the official release, but rather a version the authors have released for researchers to examine and see if they can find anything that looks irregular that may raise questions as to the procedures employed. Spencer et al. expect a scientific paper on the new data version to be published sometime in 2016.

But unless something major comes up, the new satellite data are further evidence the earth is not warming as expected.  That means that, before rushing into “moral obligations” to attempt to alter the climate’s future course by restricting energy production, we perhaps ought to spend more time trying to better understand what it is we should be expecting in the first place.

One of the things we are told by the more alarmist crowd that we should expect from our fossil fuel burning is a large and rapid sea level rise, primarily a result of a melting of the ice sheets that rest atop Greenland and Antarctica. All too frequently we see news stories telling tales of how the melting in these locations is “worse than we expected.” Some soothsayers even attack the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for being too conservative (of all things) when it comes to projecting future sea level rise. While the IPCC projects a sea level rise of about 18–20 inches from its mid-range emissions scenario over the course of this century, a vocal minority clamor that the rise will be upwards of 3 feet and quite possibly (or probably) greater. All the while, the sea level rise over the past quarter-century has been about 3 inches.

But as recent observations do little to dissuade the hardcore believers, perhaps model results (which they are seemingly more comfortable with) will be more convincing.

A new study available this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is described by author Miren Vizcaino and colleagues as “a first step towards fully-coupled higher resolution simulations with more advanced physics”—basically, a detailed ice sheet model coupled with a global climate model.

They ran this model combination with the standard IPCC emissions scenarios to assess Greenland’s contribution to future sea level rise. Here’s what they found:

The [Greenland ice sheet] volume change at year 2100 with respect to year 2000 is equivalent to 27 mm (RCP 2.6), 34 mm (RCP 4.5) and 58 mm (RCP 8.5) of global mean SLR.

Translating millimeters (mm) into inches give this answer: a projected 21st century sea level rise of 1.1 in. (for the low emissions scenario; RCP 2.6), 1.3 in. (for the low/mid scenario; RCP 4.5), and 2.3 in (for the IPCC’s high-end emission scenario). Some disaster.

As with any study, the authors attach some caveats:

The study presented here must be regarded as a necessary first step towards more advanced coupling of ice sheet and climate models at higher resolution, for instance with improved surface-atmosphere coupling (e.g., explicit representation of snow albedo evolution), less simplified ice sheet flow dynamics, and the inclusion of ocean forcing to Greenland outlet glaciers.

Even if they are off by 3–4 times, Greenland ice loss doesn’t seem to be much of a threat. Seems like it’s time to close the book on this imagined scare scenario.

And while imagination runs wild when it comes to linking carbon dioxide emissions to calamitous climate changes and extreme weather events (or even war and earthquakes),  imagination runs dry when it comes to explaining non-events (except when non-events string together to produce some sort of negative outcome [e.g., drought]).

Case in point, a new study looking into the record-long absence of major hurricane (category 3 or higher) strikes on the U.S. mainland—an absence that exceeds nine years (the last major hurricane to hit the U.S was Hurricane Wilma in late-October 2005). The authors of the study, Timothy Hall of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Kelly Hereid from ACE Tempest Reinsurance, concluded that while a streak this long is rare, their results suggest “there is nothing unusual underlying the current hurricane drought. There’s no extraordinary lack of hurricane activity.” Basically they concluded that it’s “a case of good luck” rather than “any shift in hurricane climate.”

That is all well and good, and almost certainly the case. Of course, the same was true a decade ago when the United States was hit by seven major hurricanes over the course of two hurricane seasons (2004 and 2005)—an occurrence that spawned several prominent papers and endless discussion pointing the finger squarely at anthropogenic climate change. And the same is true for every hurricane that hits the United States, although this doesn’t stop someone, somewhere, from speculating to the media that the storm’s occurrence was “consistent with” expectations from a changing climate.

What struck us as odd about the Hall and Hereid paper is the lack of speculation as to how the ongoing record “drought” of major hurricane landfalls in the United States could be tied in with anthropogenic climate change. You can rest assured—and history will confirm—that if we had been experiencing a record run of hurricane landfalls, researchers would be falling all over themselves to draw a connection to human-caused global warming.

But the lack of anything bad happening? No way anyone wants to suggest that is “consistent with” expectations. According to Hall and Hereid:

A hurricane-climate shift protecting the US during active years, even while ravaging nearby Caribbean nations, would require creativity to formulate. We conclude instead that the admittedly unusual 9-year US Cat3+ landfall drought is a matter of luck. [emphasis added]

Right! A good string of weather is “a matter of luck” while bad weather is “consistent with” climate change.

It’s not like it’s very hard, or (despite the authors’ claim) it requires much “creativity” to come up with ways to construe a lack of major hurricane strikes on U.S. soil to be “consistent with” anthropogenic climate change. In fact, there are loads of material in the scientific literature that could be used to construct an argument that under global warming, the United States should experience fewer hurricane landfalls. For a rundown of them, see p. 30 of our comments on the government’s National Assessment on Climate Change, or check out our piece titled, “Global Savings: Billion-Dollar Weather Events Averted by Global Warming.”

It is not for lack of material, but rather, for lack of desire, that keeps folks from wanting to draw a potential link between human-caused climate change and good things occurring in the world.

References:

Hall, T., and K. Hereid. 2015. “The Frequency and Duration of US Hurricane Droughts.” Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2015GL063652

Vizcaino, M. et al. 2015. “Coupled Simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and Climate Change up to AD 2300.” Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061142

A Clear Case of Selective Data Usage from the U.S National Climate Assessment

Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

In the process of writing our upcoming book, The Lukewarmer’s Manifesto, we wandered into the funhouse of the 2014 National Climate Assessment (NCA).

Recall that the NCA is a product of the federal government’s U.S. Global Change Research Program, whose motto isThirteen Agencies, One Mission: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science.”

In their case, “empower” is synonymous with “indoctrinate.”

Here is a good example:

The section on hurricanes in Chapter 2 (“Our Changing Climate”) caught our eye. The NCA has a sidebar on the history of the hurricane “power dissipation index” (PDI), a well-known cubic function of the wind velocity. The NCAs graphs  begin in 1970 and end in 2009 (a full four years before the NCA was released). They include a trend line through the PDI data beginning in 1980 that’s going up for whatever reason and that is apparently convenient for drawing an association with human-caused global warming. But had the NCA authors consulted a longer record, say, from 1920 to 2013 (the last year data was available for the 2014 NCA) they could have readily ruled out any role of global warming.

 

Figure 1. From page 42 of the hardcopy of the 2014 National Assessment Report form the USGCRP (available here).