Tag: global warming

You Ought to Have a Look: Climate Fretting and Why It’s Unjustified

You Ought to Have a Look is a regular feature from the Center for the Study of Science. While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

While “climate fretting” has become a pastime for some—even more so now with President-elect Trump’s plans to disassemble much of President Obama’s “I’ve Got a Pen and I’ve Got a Phone”-based Climate Action Plan—climate reality tells a much different story.

For example, a new analysis by Manhattan Institute’s (and YOTHAL favorite) Oren Cass looks into the comparative costs of climate changevs. climate action. His report, “Climate Costs in Context” is concise and to-the-point, and finds that while climate change will impart an economic cost, it is manageable and small in comparison to the price of actively trying to mitigate it. Here’s Oren’s abstract:

There is a consensus among climate scientists that human activity is contributing to climate change. However, claims that rising temperatures pose an existential threat to the human race or modern civilization are not well supported by climate science or economics; to the contrary, they are every bit as far from the mainstream as claims that climate change is not occurring or that it will be beneficial. Analyses consistently show that the costs of climate change are real but manageable. For instance, the prosperity that the world might achieve in 2100 without climate change may instead be delayed until 2102. [emphasis added]

In other words, the economic impacts of climate change aren’t something worth fretting over.

You Ought to Have a Look: How to Start Afresh with Climate and Energy Policy

You Ought to Have a Look is a regular feature from the Center for the Study of Science.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

 

Last week in this space, we highlighted a couple of areas where burdensome carbon dioxide policies exist that we hoped were not being overlooked by the Trump transition and planning teams in their push to reverse the more prominent Obama Administration actions like the Paris Climate Accord and the Clean Power Plan.

We want to draw a bit more attention to one of these—overturning federal regulations that were handed down on greenhouse gas regulations offered by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the EPA.

Wayne Crews, vice president for policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute has a couple of great articles (see here and here) describing how this can be done through elements of the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which was passed in 1996. The beauty of using the CRA is that it only requires a simple majority vote (i.e., no worries of a filibuster) in Congress. To date, the CRA has been pretty ineffective at overturning “midnight rules” (in this case rules finalized since about mid-May) because the incoming president would veto them. But with Trump’s ascendency, this should not be the case. Crews has compiled, and is maintaining, a running list that is currently 140+ items strong (and growing) of “Significant Federal Rules Containing Potential Candidates for Trump Administration Congressional Review Act Resolutions of Disapproval.” There are many among them that either directly regulate greenhouse gas emissions or include (improperly in our estimate) the so-called “social cost of carbon” on the benefits side of the cost/benefit analyses that are used to support greenhouse gas reductions. These misguided and ill-informed should be prime targets for Congressional undoing.

We also want to highlight a couple of other pieces that get into the technical (or legal) details of how Trump may go about disassembling elements of Obama’s Climate Action Plan. These include analysis by:

Andrew Grossman: (Cato podcast) “Undoing Executive Action in a Trump Presidency

David Bookbinder and David Bailey: “Does Trump Spell Climate Doom?”

Greenwire’s Amanda Reilly: “Clean Power Plan: Rule’s demise looms, but how Trump will ax it remains unclear

Climatewire’s Jean Chemnick: “Paris Agreement: Here’s what could happen under Trump

And a good overview by Greenwire’s Robin Bravender: “Can Trump deliver and immense energy, climate promises?

It worth reading through these if you want to familiarize yourself with the myriad ways that the Trump Administration may clearing the climate policy slate.

And finally, the hard environmental left continues to fret about what is going to come to pass under the new Trump Administration. Much of the fretting is about whether or not Trump decides that “turnabout is fair play” when it comes to matters like research funding, research direction, respect of opposing views, personal attacks on scientists, etc. The new Administration’s approach, in fact, may offer refreshing new directions in both science and policy that were actively oppressed under the Obama Administration. A couple of commentaries over the past week cautiously embrace such possibilities. While we may not agree with everything that is being expressed in these articles, we highlight them because their authors were not afraid to offer at least a glimmer of (cautious) optimism for opportunity. They include essays by:

Dan Sarowitz: “Science and innovation policies for Donald Trump

Pat Michaels: “Trump Should Shine Spotlight on Shrouded Climate ‘Science’

And those ideas expressed by Judy Curry in this article “Climate scientists brace for funding battles under Trump

You ought to have a look!

Statement on the Ratification of the Paris Agreement

Earlier this afternoon in the Rose Garden, President Obama celebrated the ratification of the Paris Agreement. I had this to say in response:

President Obama was a bit less than candid in his speech about the adoption of the U.N.’s Paris Agreement. Using realistic assumptions about role of carbon dioxide in climate change, the Agreement will prevent 0.1 to 0.2°C of global warming by the year 2100, not the inflated figure the U.N. gets by assuming all warming since the Industrial Revolution is caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide. Few, if any, climate scientists would defend that. It also assumes that emissions will—without the Paris Agreement—increase much faster than the average increase used in climate simulations. In reality, the UN’s own Climate Panel states only that carbon dioxide is causing more than 50% of the warming observed since 1950, not 1800. Further, the switch from coal to natural gas for electrical generation has already invalidated the UN’s assumptions about the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

He is also a bit optimistic about China, which has said it will stop increasing carbon dioxide emissions “around” 2030. This is exactly the time that researchers in Obama’s own Department of Energy said, in 2011, that their emissions would level off due to their maturing economy, and without any explicit policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, best known as “business as usual.”

You Ought to Have a Look: The Interface of Climate Change Science and Climate Change Policy

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

We came across a pair of interesting, but somewhat involved reads this week on the interface of science and science policy when it comes to climate change. We’ll give you a little something to chew on from each one, but suggest that you ought you have a look at them at length to appreciate them in full.

First up is a piece, “The Limits of Knowledge and the Climate Change Debate” appearing in the Fall 2016 issue of the Cato Journal by Brian J. L. Berry, Jayshree Bihari, and Euel Elliott in which the authors examine the “increasingly contentious confrontation over the conduct of science, the question of what constitutes scientific certainty, and the connection between science and policymaking.”

Spin Cycle: Attributing Louisiana Floods to Global Warming

The Spin Cycle is a reoccurring feature based upon just how much the latest weather or climate story, policy pronouncement, or simply poobah blather spins the truth. Statements are given a rating between 1-5 spin cycles, with fewer cycles meaning less spin. For a more in-depth description, visit the inaugural edition.

In mid-August a slow moving unnamed tropical system dumped copious amounts of precipitation in the Baton Rouge region of Louisiana. Reports were of some locations receiving over 30 inches of rain during the event. Louisiana’s governor John Bel Edwards called the resultant floods “historic” and “unprecedented.”

Some elements in the media were quick to link in human-caused climate change (just as they are to seemingly every extreme weather event). The New York Times, for example, ran a piece titled “Flooding in the South Looks a Lot Like Climate Change.”

We were equally quick to point out that there was no need to invoke global warming in that the central Gulf Coast is prime country for big rain events and that similar, and even larger, rainfall totals have been racked up there during times when there were far fewer greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—like in 1979 when 45 inches of precipitation fell over Alvin, TX from the slow passage of tropical storm Claudette, or in 1940 when 37.5 in. fell on Miller Island, LA from another stalled unnamed tropical system.

But we suspected that this wouldn’t be the end of it, and we were right.

Recap of Hurricane Hermine and Global Warming

 Global Science Report is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new items in the scientific literature or the popular media. For broader and more technical perspectives, consult our monthly “Current Wisdom.”

For more than two weeks Hurricane Hermine (including, its pre-hurricane and post-hurricane life) was prominent in the daily news cycle.  It threatened, at one time or another, destruction along U.S. coastlines from the southern tip of Florida westward to New Orleans and northward to Cape Cod.  Hurricane/global warming stories, relegated to the hell of the formerly attractive by the record-long absence of a major hurricane strike on U.S. shores, were being spiffed up and readied for publication just as soon as disaster would strike.  But, alas, Hermine didn’t cooperate, arguably generating more bluster in the press than on the ground, although some very exposed stretches of North Florida did incur some damage.  

Like Jessie, Woody and Stinky Pete in Toy Story 2, the hurricane/global warming stories have been put back in their boxes (if only they could be sent to a museum!).  

But, they didn’t have to be. There was much that could have been written speculating on the role of global warming in the Hermine’s evolution—but it’s just not politically correct.

With a bit of thought-provocation provided by newly-minted Cato Adjunct Scholar Dr. Ryan Maue—one of the best and brightest minds in the  world on issues of tropical cyclone/climate interactions (and other extreme weather types)—we’ll review Hermine’s life history and consider what factors “consistent with” human-caused climate change may have shaped its outcome.

You Ought to Have a Look: Natural Climate Variability

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger. While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

We’ve got a lot cover this week, so let’s get right to it.

On the science front, we want to highlight two new papers that both suggest that attributing heavy precipitation events in the United States to human-caused climate change is a fool’s errand (not that there aren’t plenty of fools running around out there). This is a timely topic to explore with the big rains in Louisiana over the weekend leading the news coverage.

One paper by a research team from the University of Iowa found that “the stronger storms are not getting stronger” and that there has not been any change in the seasonality of heavy rainfall events by examining trends in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy rainfall events in the United States. They did report that the frequency of heavy rain events was increasing across much of the United States, with the exception of the Northwest. As to the reason behind the observed patterns, the authors write “[o]ur findings indicate that the climate variability of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can exert a large control on the precipitation frequency and magnitude over the contiguous USA.”

The other paper, from a research team led by NOAA/GFDL’s Karin van der Wiel, examined climate model projections and observed trends in heavy precipitation events across the United States and concludes:

Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record.

Pretty emphatic and straightforward summary.

So, the next time you read that such and such extreme precipitation event was made worse by global warming, you’ll know that there is precious little actual science to back that up.

Pages