Tag: election 2016

Democratic Women 3x More Likely than Republicans to Have “Unfriended” Someone During 2016 Election

The 2016 presidential election took its toll on friendships around the country, but particularly among Democratic women. Fascinating new research from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) finds that Democratic women are three times as likely as Republicans to say they blocked, unfriended, or unfollowed a person on a social networking site because of what they posted about politics: 30% versus 9%.

Democratic men (14%) are little less than twice as likely as Republican men (8%) To say they ‘unfriended’ someone. Democratic women (30%) are three times as likely Republican women (10%) to say they’ve done the same. Among all Americans the number stands at 13%.

You can find the full report at PRRI here.

Donald Trump’s Hits and Misses in Foreign Policy

Donald Trump has offered his foreign policy vision. It was a bit of a mishmash, but he is no Neoconservative and broke with pro-war Republican orthodoxy in important ways.

The speech, delivered last week in downtown Washington, was standard campaign fare, intended to demonstrate that the candidate was serious, and included some of the usual bland generalities.

Still, there was considerable good in the talk.

After the Cold War, he noted, “Logic was replaced with foolishness and arrogance, which led to one foreign policy disaster after another.” Hard to argue with that. Moreover, said Trump, it was a mistake to believe that the U.S. could impose Western-style democracy on countries “that had no experience or interests” in the process.

Indeed, he noted that “the legacy of the Obama-Clinton interventions will be weakness, confusion and disarray, a mess.” It actually is the Bush-Obama-Clinton interventions, but point taken. “Our actions in Iraq, Libya and Syria have helped unleash ISIS,” Trump added.

Added Trump: “unlike other candidates for the presidency, war and aggression will not be my first instinct.” Those are words not often spoken by Republicans. He also criticized the Iraq debacle, whose “biggest beneficiary has been Iran.”

Further, complained Trump, “our allies are not paying their fair share.” He promised to get out “of the nation-building business.” He argued that Washington should cooperate with Russia.

But there was the bad in the talk as well.

Poll: Americans Would Rather Pay Lower Prices than Purchase Items Made in the U.S.

“We don’t win anymore!” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump tells us. One of the main reasons, according to Trump, is due to free trade agreements. At a rally in North Carolina he declared: “All this free trade, you know what, it is free trade for them, not for us. We’re losing our shirts.” Trump has proposed imposing various taxes on foreign imports to the US because he believes this will help facilitate bringing back jobs to the US (my colleague Daniel Ikenson has written about this here and here).

Trump’s talk of unfair trade and his proposals to punish importers has resonated with many Americans. In fact, a recent CBS/New York Times survey finds that 61% of Americans agree that “trade restrictions are necessary to protect domestic industries” whereas 29% say free trade should be allowed even if domestic industries are hurt by competition abroad. 

Yet, Americans may not be willing to foot the bill of goods’ higher prices that will result from Trump’s proposed trade restrictions. A recent AP/GfK poll finds that 67% of Americans would rather buy cheaper products made in another country rather than pay more for the same product made in the United States. Thirty percent (30%) say they’d rather pay more to buy American made products. That being said, 71% report that they’d like to buy American made items, but that they are often too costly or difficult to find. Furthermore, only 9% say they hold firm to only buying American made goods even if they cost more.

These poll results give some insight into Americans’ revealed preferences, or their actual consumer behavior. While in theory Americans like the idea of buying items made closer to home by their fellow citizens, ultimately their pocketbook may prove more relevant to their behavior.

When it comes to free trade agreements impact on American jobs and wages, Americans are divided but tend not to be concerned. Fifty-four percent (54%) do not believe that free trade agreements decrease wages for American workers while 43% think these agreements do harm wages. Similarly 51% do not think that free trade agreements cost American jobs, while 46% think they do.

Overall, Americans are quite divided over the general benefits of free trade with a third who believe free trade agreements are good for the economy, 37% who say they don’t make a difference, and about a quarter who think these agreements harm the economy.

Presidential Candidates Who Led the Polls in January Entering the 2008 and 2012 Primary Election Cycles Didn’t Win

RealClearPolitics provides a useful tool to compare the Republican and Democratic nomination races today to similar points during the 2012 and 2008 primary cycles. Those nominating contests show that the candidates ahead at this point in the election cycle did not take home the nomination. This suggests that despite Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s persistent leads throughout the summer and fall of 2015, their primary victories remain uncertain.

Averaging across recent December polls, Donald Trump holds the lead among national Republican voters (not necessarily likely primary voters), at 35 percent. Trump holds a 15-point lead over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in second place at 19.5 percent and an over 20-point lead over Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in third place with 11.5 percent. Trump’s support took-off in July and, for the most part, he’s remained ahead and increased momentum. 

Does Trump’s lead entering into 2016 portend his eventual win? Not necessarily.

TONIGHT: Cato Scholars Live-Tweet The First Dem Debate

Tonight, starting at 8:30 p.m. EDT, CNN will host the first Democratic presidential primary debate of the 2016 campaign season, to be held at the Wynn Las Vegas and broadcast nationwide.

Cato scholars will be using #Cato2016 to live-tweet the debate, bringing insightful commentary and hard-hitting policy analysis to the discussion.

 

Join the conversation on Twitter with #Cato2016.

 

Tonight will kick off a series of six total scheduled Democratic primary debates to occur roughly once per month. Though a grassroots movement to increase the number of debates has been gaining momentum, the Democratic National Committee has remained firm about their proposed schedule.

 “ Voters will have ample opportunities to hear our candidates discuss their visions for our country’s future,” wrote DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in an August 6th post on Medium.

She further clarified her position at a September breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor, stating “We’re not changing the process. We’re having six debates…The candidates will be uninvited from subsequent debates if they accept an invitation to anything outside of the six sanctioned debates.”

Similar to the earlier GOP debates hosted by Fox & CNN, candidates had to average at least one percent support in a combination of three recognized national polls released between August 1st and October 10th to be invited to participate tonight.

Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb will all be taking the stage, while Lawrence Lessig was unable to meet the cutoff.

Watching the Debates Tonight? Get Smart Policy Analysis on Twitter With #Cato2016

#Cato2016

Tonight, starting at 6:00 p.m. EDT, CNN will host two nationally televised debates featuring candidates for the Republican nomination for the 2016 presidential elections. Though widely regarded as the “second” debate of this election season, those of you who have been following Cato coverage will recognize tonight’s broadcasts as the fourth and fifth debates of Campaign 2016.

Cato scholars will be on hand to live-tweet both debates, bringing insightful commentary and hard-hitting policy analysis to the discussion. Follow tonight’s live-tweeters and join the conversation on Twitter using #Cato2016.

Similar to the Fox debates, the split in candidates will be based on average scores from national poll results spanning a two-month period ending last Thursday, with candidates required to average at least 1 percent support in three polls to qualify.

The first debate will feature Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Lindsey Graham. Then, at 8:00 p.m. EDT, Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Carly Fiorina will take the stage.

Although CNN had originally intended only to include the top ten candidates in the later debate, an exception was made for Fiorina, whose performance in the first Fox debate helped her move into the top ten in polls conducted after that broadcast.

Candidates positions on the stage will be based on their overall rankings, with Trump—flanked by Carson and Bush—front and center for the primetime debate.

Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, who garnered 1 percent support in only one poll during the two-month window, did not meet the criteria for inclusion.

Join the conversation tonight on Twitter with #Cato2016.