Tag: defense

Retired and Raking It In

President Trump’s budget yesterday provides the latest evidence of out-of-control entitlement spending. In the baseline projections, Social Security spending will grow 5.9 percent in 2020 and Medicare spending will grow 8.8 percent. Social Security will grow at a 5.8 percent compound annual rate over the coming decade, while Medicare will grow at 7.8 percent. By contrast, inflation is expected to average 2.3 percent annually over the coming decade.

Social Security and Medicare are the first- and third-largest programs in the federal budget, and they are pushing the government toward a fiscal crisis. Medicare spending this year, net of premiums, is $645 billion, while the second-largest program, defense, is $674 billion. But Medicare spending will surpass defense in the next year or two, and by 2029 Medicare at $1.36 trillion will dwarf defense at $787 billion, at least in the baseline projection.

Social Security and Medicare are not the only programs for the elderly in the federal budget. A chart from CBO’s latest update shows the share of overall noninterest federal spending going to the old. The share is expected to rise from 40 percent in 2018 to 50 percent by 2029. Spending on the elderly will create sustained pressure on federal finances and taxpayer wallets in the years ahead.

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 2/7/19

Welcome to the Defense Download! This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to receive more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey.  

  1. Sold to an ally, lost to an enemy,” Nima Elbagir, Salma Abdelaziz, Mohamed Abo El Gheit, and Laura Smith-Spark. CNN broke a story this week revealing that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in Yemen. 
  2. Inside the Secretive US Air Campaign In Somalia,” Amanda Serber. “Since Donald Trump took office, the US military has approximately tripled the number of strikes that it conducts each year in Somalia, according to figures confirmed by the Pentagon, while such actions—and the reasons behind them—have become increasingly opaque.” 
  3. Little Sparta: The United States-United Arab Emirates Alliance and the War in Yemen,” William Hartung. When talking about Yemen, the United Arab Emirates’ role in the conflict has been minimized and underreported. 

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 1/17/19

Welcome to the Defense Download! This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to recieve more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey.  

  1. The Missile Defense Review dropped this morning. For those that have been patiently waiting to see this document for months, your time has finally arrived. Since this was just released hours ago, articles breaking down the details have yet to be posted. So stay tuned and check Twitter for commentary. 
  2. Pentagon preps for budget delay as historic shutdown drags on,” Tony Bertuca. The President’s FY2020 budget request was supposed to be publically available and kick off the budget-making process on February 4th, 2019. With the government shutdown, and various topline numbers coming out of the White House, it looks like the budget request will be delayed. 
  3. Reform panel warns Congress to overhaul Pentagon acquisitions, or lose technological edge,” Joe Gould. The Section 809 Panel was gifted the herculean task of reforming how the Pentagon buys products—everything from cybersecurity software to major weapons system hardware. The report itself is mammoth (500+ pages), but includes recommendations aimed at streamlining the acquisition process and leveraging commercial advances. 
  4. The Myth of Cyber Offense: The Case For Restraint,” Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen. What does a new era of Great Power Politics mean for American cyber policy? Mostly that it’s still being defined and actively shaped by the changing balance of power—and that the choices America makes now could have either stabilizing or destabilizing effects on the evolution of this domain. 

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 1/3/19

Happy New Year! The Defense Download is back after a brief break for the holiday season. This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to recieve more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey.  

  1. 2018 Was a Long Women’s March Through Congress,” by Lyric Thompson and Christina Asquith. The 116th Congress was sworn into office today—the most diverse Congress in the history of the institution. 
  2. With Mattis Out, How Will the Pentagon Transition Under Shanahan?NPR’s Morning Edition hosted by Rachel Martin, featuring Todd Harrison. With Mattis departing and Shanahan assuming the post of Secretary of Defense—at least temporarily—there could be changes in store with new leadership. 
  3. US Withdrawal Plan from Afghanistan Won’t Include SOF Strike Units,” Matthew Cox and Richard Sisk. President Trump’s announcement that he intends to withdraw troops from Syria has renewed rumors of an imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan as well. Military.com reporters spoke to defense officials familiar with plans. 
  4. This Map Shows Where in the World the US Military Is Combatting Terrorism,” Stephanie Savell and 5W Infographics. This is a new release of the Costs of War project’s research—showing that the U.S. is militarily engaged in 80 countries. That’s 40 percent of all the countries in the world. 

 

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 12/13

Welcome to the Defense Download! This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to recieve more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey.  

  1. The Senate just passed (and I mean, just passed, that’s why the Defense Download is going out a bit late today) SJ Res 54: Ordering the withdrawal of U.S. military support for the war in Yemen as a function of the War Powers Resolution. Expect to see a lot of media coverage over the next few days on what this could mean moving forward. If you want to catch up on how we got here, take some time to view the event we held here at Cato last week. 
  2. Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2019-2028,” Congressional Budget Office. All the budget wonks like me are rejoicing over a new edition of this report. The 2017 version was significantly outdated because many of the long-term plans have changed substantially in two years. 
  3. U.S. Budget Deficit Hits Wildest on Record for Month of November,” Sarah McGregor. If there was any doubt that the CBO report was badly needed and that the federal budget is hurdling in an unsustainable direction, read this piece. 
  4. New defense topline could break budget cap by $100B; analysts question strategy,” Tony Bertuca. You’ve probably heard a lot of defense topline numbers from the Trump administration over the past two weeks: originally it was $744B request for 2019, then the President wanted to cut that number to $700B, and has now reversed course and might actually seek a $750B request for next year. Click through to see what experts from across the political spectrum have to say about these prospective changes. 

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 11/15

Welcome to the Defense Download! This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to recieve more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey.  

  1. Today, Senator Rand Paul will take the floor to call for a vote on blocking arms sales to Bahrain—one of the countries waging war on Yemen. Senator Paul will be invoking the congressional oversight function included in the Arms Export Control Act (AECA). I’ll be watching the vote and covering its results on Twitter @CDDorminey. If you want more information on the conflict in Yemen, check out my colleague Emma Ashford’s work. For background on arms sales and congressional oversight, flip through the Risky Business report Trevor Thrall and I published earlier this year. 
  2. Incoming HASC Chair: Scale Back Plans for New Nukes,” Marcus Weisgerber. Representative Adam Smith is poised to become the House Armed Services Committee chairman and aims to “totally redo the Nuclear Posture Review” during his tenure. Cost is a motivating factor that Rep. Smith says the current plans haven’t taken seriously enough: “When you look at the needs we have in national security, the needs we have in the country and the $22 trillion debt, what they’re talking about in terms of totally rebuilding a nuclear weapons capacity in all pieces of the triad is way beyond what we can afford.” 
  3. Here’s what the Pentagon thinks the actual cost of a Space Force will be,” Aaron Mehta. Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan spoke to reporters this week and significantly decreased the government’s estimate of starting a Space Force. While the Air Force claimed it could cost as much as $13 billion, Shanahan’s team claims it can keep costs to the single digit billions, possibly as “low” as $5 billion. 
  4. Providing for the Common Defense,” National Defense Strategy Commission. This new report discusses the findings of a congressionally-mandated study on the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) and a wide variety of emerging national security threats. The authors call for a vague yet drastic increase in defense spending, claiming it is out of their purview to estimate how much implementing the 2018 NDS will actually cost—just that current resource levels are insufficient. 

DEFENSE DOWNLOAD: Week of 11/1

Welcome to the Defense Download! This new round-up is intended to highlight what we at the Cato Institute are keeping tabs on in the world of defense politics every week. The three-to-five trending stories will vary depending on the news cycle, what policymakers are talking about, and will pull from all sides of the political spectrum. If you would like to recieve more frequent updates on what I’m reading, writing, and listening to—you can follow me on Twitter via @CDDorminey

  1. Bolton Calls National Debt ‘Economic Threat’ to US,” Toluse Olorunnipa. Hot off the presses! National Security Advisor John Bolton calls for significant cuts to discretionary spending in order to get the country back on the path of fiscal sustainability. The new trajectory? Bolton, and the President himself, have called for defense spending to be cut or levelled off in the short-term—a radical change from the administration’s previous two budgets. 
  2. In The Shadow of Reagan’s Legacy, Trump Is Failing,” Alexandra Bell. This article talks about why Reagan negotiated the INF treaty that President Trump is trying to dismantle and juxtaposes Reagan’s belief in arms control as a stabilizing force against the current administration’s actions. 
  3. The Nation Needs A 400-Ship Navy,” Thomas Callender. In the interest of showing the true breadth of this field, I’ve included this new report by the Heritage Foundation that calls for an increase over the adminstration’s current 355-ship plan for the Navy. Building to a 400-ship Navy will require $4-6 billion more annually than is already allocated, during a time of competing priorities and sky-high debt (see first article). 
  4. Mattis wants to boost fighter readiness. Here’s how industry could help,” Valerie Insinna. Last month, Secretary Mattis said that he’d like to get fighter readiness up to 80 percent—this would include all the F-35, F-22, F-16, and F/A-18 fighter jets. Readiness has been a rallying cry from the Pentagon for several years, but if Mattis intends to put his money where his mouth is, that could mean fewer dollars for new procurement projects in favor of upgrading and sustaining current platforms. 

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