Tag: Crime

The Migrant Caravan Probably Doesn’t Contain Many Criminals

One concern about the caravan of Central American migrants making its way to the U.S. border is that it may contain criminals. Although we don’t know the identities or criminal histories of the actual people in the caravan, we can get an indication by looking at estimates of the incarceration rates of immigrants in the United States who come from the Central American countries where the caravan originated.

Hondurans are likely the largest contingent in the caravan. The Honduran incarceration rate in the United States was 1,130 per 100,000 Hondurans in 2016 (Figure 1). The incarceration rate of native-born Americans is about 25 percent higher than for those born in Honduras at 1,498 per 100,000 natives. In 2016, the incarceration rate for immigrants from all of Mexico and Central America is about 35 percent below that of native-born Americans. 

Figure 1: Incarceration Rate by Nationality of Birth Per 100,000, Ages 18-54, 2016

Figure 1 controls for the size of the population to create a meaningful comparison of incarceration rates between the national-origin groups. For instance, the incarceration rate for American natives is 1,498 per 100,000 American natives and the Mexican incarceration rate is 996 per 100,000 Mexican-born residents in the United States. The incarceration rate for all immigrants from Mexico and Central America was 970 per 100,000 immigrants from that part of the world.    

The data for the estimates in this blog come from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). These are estimates from the group quarters population for those aged 18-54. Figure 1 is an estimate because not all inmates in group quarters are in correctional facilities. Most inmates in the public-use microdata version of the ACS are in correctional facilities, but the data also include those in mental health and elderly care institutions and in institutions for people with disabilities. As a result, we narrowed the age range to 18-54 to exclude most of those in mental health and retirement facilities. 

Commenting on the likely criminality of members in the migrant caravan based on the incarceration rates of their co-nationals in the United States is not fully satisfying. People in the migrant caravan could be more crime-prone than their fellow countrymen in the United States, for instance. However, the incarceration rates of their fellow countrymen in the United States at least provide some evidence to cut through the political statements made without any evidence.    

Most of the members of the caravan will likely seek asylum in the United States while the others will try to enter unlawfully. The government will vet the asylum-seekers to identify serious criminals and national security threats. However, it is impossible to vet those who enter as illegal immigrants – which is one of the better arguments for allowing them to enter legally as they would then be subject to vetting.

Special thanks to Michelangelo Landgrave from crunching many of the numbers for this post.

Police Clearance Rates Are Not Lower in States with Many Illegal Immigrants

Immigrant criminality and its impact on the United States is one of the most important issues in the public debate over immigration. In order to provide new insight into this topic, my coauthor Michelangelo Landgrave and I have attempted to estimate the illegal immigrant incarceration rate. I have also written a short paper on Texas criminal conviction rates by immigration status and crime based on data provided by the state of Texas. All three papers found that illegal immigrants were less likely to be convicted or incarcerated for crimes than native-born Americans.

My paper on illegal immigrant crime rates in Texas is based on data from the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) that I obtained through a Public Information Act request. The Texas DPS data separately show the number of convictions and arrests of illegal immigrants, legal immigrants, and native-born Americans for 44 and 46 different crimes, respectively, in the state of Texas by year from January 1, 2011, to November 15, 2017.

One of the persistent criticisms of my paper on Texas criminal conviction rates is that the DPS data do not record the number of illegal immigrants who commit crimes but are not convicted. Given data limitations, that is probably an impossible question to answer in a satisfactory way for immigrants and for natives.  However, I try to address this criticism in my Texas paper by showing that the gap between the arrest rates and conviction rates for illegal immigrants and the gap between the arrest rates and conviction rates for native-born Americans are similar, indicating that there are few illegal immigrants who are arrested for offenses who then disappear or are deported before their convictions relative to natives who are arrested and then not convicted.

A related criticism is that illegal immigrants flee Texas and then go back to their home countries after they commit crimes, which means that the Texas state conviction data would not count them. Thus, the criminal conviction rate for illegal immigrants is so low because they commit their crimes and flee – an option that few native-born American criminals possess. This argument makes a certain amount of sense in Texas as it shares a long border with Mexico, the source of a majority of illegal immigrants in Texas.

To answer that second criticism, we decided to investigate whether police clearance rates are correlated with the number of illegal immigrants on the state level. According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, law enforcement agencies can clear offenses by one of two means. The first is called “cleared by arrest” whereby a person must be arrested, charged with an offense, and turned over to a court for prosecution.  The second is called “cleared by exceptional means,” whereby the police must identify the offender, gather enough evidence for an arrest and to charge them with a crime, identify the offender’s exact location, and have encountered a circumstance out of law enforcement’s control that prevents an arrest. The death of the offender or the lack of an extradition treaty with the country harboring a suspected criminal are common causes of clearances by “exceptional means.” Mexico and the United States have an extradition treaty. An offense is cleared when the police have taken certain actions to solve the underlying crime short of a criminal conviction.

Landgrave ran many regressions between clearance rates (logged) and the proportion of the population of each state who were illegal immigrants (logged) with state-year and region-year fixed effects. The regressions control for demographic characteristics, the number of police officers for every 100,000 residents, education, and population density. He ran regressions for clearance rates by major crime and the entire crime index. All he found is that motor vehicle theft and burglary clearance rates are positively correlated with the proportion of the population who are illegal immigrants, but only at the 10 percent level for the state-year fixed effects (Table 1, click for larger version). There were no other statistically significant results.

Table 1: Correlation between State Police Clearance Rates and Illegal Immigrant Population

As a quick exercise to test this persistent criticism, these results reveal that there is no nationwide link between clearance rates and the proportion of the population who are illegal immigrants. The only exception is that police clear more motor vehicle and burglary offenses in states with more illegal immigrants as a proportion of their population, but only in one permutation and only at the 10 percent level. Although the theory that illegal immigrants commit crimes and then flee states seems plausible, we see no evidence of that in the aggregate clearance rates.

Peter Kirsanow’s Numerous Errors

Last Thursday, Tucker Carlson invited Peter Kirsanow onto his top-rated Fox News show Tucker Carlson Tonight to discuss illegal immigration and crime. They began the segment by playing a recent clip of me and Carlson arguing about data on illegal immigrant criminality in Texas. In that earlier segment, Carlson said we don’t have good data on illegal immigrant criminality and I said we do, specifically from the state of Texas. The data show that illegal immigrants have a lower murder conviction rate than native-born Americans. 

Kirsanow responded to my clip in a multi-minute near-monologue. Unfortunately, Kirsanow made many errors and misstatements. His comments on television parroted a piece that he wrote earlier this year in National Review. That piece made so many mathematical, definitional, and logical errors that I rebutted it in detail in Reason this February.

Since I was not invited on Thursday’s segment to debate Kirsanow while he criticized my points and presented his own, I’ve decided to respond here.  Below are Kirsanow’s quotes from his recent appearance on Tucker Carlson Tonight, followed by my rebuttal.

The Murder of Mollie Tibbetts and Illegal Immigrant Crime: The Facts

Yesterday, authorities in Iowa charged 24-year old Cristhian Bahena Rivera with the murder of Mollie Tibbetts. Facts in these types of cases come out slowly and some details, substantive or minor, may change in the months ahead that could alter the correct view of this case. But nothing can change the fact that the murder of Tibbetts was a brutal and unforgivable act and that the murderer should be punished to the full extent of the law. Rivera is charged with that murder and there is a lot of evidence to support a conviction.    

This terrible murder is already feeding into a political firestorm. People with a political axe to grind, those who want to distract from the recent conviction of Paul Manafort and plea deal for Michael Cohen, and partisans who want to compare Tibbetts’ murder to the shooting of Kate Steinle in an effort to impact the upcoming November elections are already using the tragic murder of Tibbetts as an argument for increasing the enforcement of immigration laws against people who aren’t charged with murder or any real crime except violating international labor market regulations (immigration laws). They want to convict all illegal immigrants of this murder in the court of public opinion, not just the actual murderer.    

Scarce law enforcement resources should be devoted to solving and deterring the most serious crimes regardless of who commits them.  That is the best policy for saving American lives. That means that increased enforcement of our immigration laws is not a good way to prevent murders.  Illegal immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated for crimes in the United States than native-born AmericansTexas is the only state that keeps data on the number of convictions of illegal immigrants for specific crimes (I sent versions of Public Interest Requests to every state). In Texas in 2015, the rate of convictions per 100,000 illegal immigrants was 16 percent lower below that of native-born Americans. That is little consolation to the victims and their families, but the population of illegal immigrants is less likely to be convicted of murder than native-born Americans in Texas. If nationwide incarceration rates by immigration status are any clue, that trend likely holds nationwide. 

I recently received new data from Texas on the number of convictions by crime and immigration status as well as the number of individuals convicted (they are slightly different). This Texas data is the best data that we have on the commission of murder by immigrants by specific legal status.  In 2016, 746 native-born Texans, 32 illegal immigrants, and 28 legal immigrants were convicted of homicide. In that year, the homicide conviction rate for native-born Americans is Texas was 3.2 per 100,000 natives while it was 1.8 per 100,000 illegal immigrants and 0.9 per 100,000 legal immigrants (Figure 1). The illegal immigrant conviction rate for homicide was 44 percent below that of native-born Americans in 2016 in Texas. 

Figure 1: Homicide conviction rates in Texas

Mexico Is Not Sending Its Murderers: Homicide Rates on the Mexican Border

President Trump tweeted this morning that, “One of the reasons we need Great Border Security is that Mexico’s murder rate in 2017 increased by 27% to 31,174 people killed, a record! The Democrats want Open Borders. I want Maximum Border Security and respect for ICE and our great Law Enforcement Professionals!”  He tweeted this because he’s spent the last few days stating that he would shut down the government if Congress did not adopt his proposed immigration reforms in the upcoming budget debate, especially the funding for the construction of a border wall.

Besides the political motivation for his tweet, President Trump seems to have assumed that crime in Mexico bleeds north into the United States, so more border security is required to prevent that from happening as murder rates begin to rise again in Mexico.  Although illegal immigrant incarceration rates are lower than they are for natives, illegal immigrant conviction rates in the border state of Texas are lower for almost every crime including homicide, and the vast majority of evidence indicates that illegal and legal immigrants are less crime-prone than natives, the President’s specific claim that murder rates spread from Mexico to the United States is different from most of the existing peer-reviewed literature. 

My colleague Andrew Forrester and I ran some simple regressions to test whether higher homicide rates in Mexican states that border the United States spread northward to U.S. states on the other side of the border.  It doesn’t make much sense to compare Mexican crime in the Yucatan Peninsula with that in Maine but, if President Trump’s theory is correct, then we should expect to see it cross from Baja California to California, for instance.  Homicide data for the Mexican border states come from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography.  American homicide data come from the Uniform Crime Reporting statistics at the FBI (files here).  Homicide rates in states in both countries are per 100,000 state residents which allows an apples-to-apples comparison.  We used data from 1997 through 2016 but were not able to include 2017 because U.S. crime data is still unavaiable for that year.  We decided to look exclusively at U.S. and Mexican border states because those are where we would expect crime to bleed over if such a thing happened. 

Figure 1 shows a negative relationship between homicide rates in U.S. border states and Mexican border states with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.46.  The coefficient is nearly identical when American homicide rates are lagged one year.  Although we did not include other controls, there is a negative relationship between homicides on the American side and the Mexican side.  In other words, when Mexican homicide rates go up then American rates tend to go down and vice versa.     

Homicide Rates in U.S. and Mexican Border States

Figure 2 shows the same data but with years on the X-axis.  Mexican border state homicide rates vary considerably over time, especially when that government decided to try to crack down on drug cartels, but U.S. border state homicide rates trended slowly downward over the entire time.  There is a negative relationship between Mexican homicide rates and homicide rates in U.S. border states. 

Homicide Rates in U.S. and Mexican Border States

Our figures and regressions above might not be capturing the whole picture.  Perhaps crime travels from Mexican border states and goes directly into the U.S. state that it is bordering.  That could be the source of President Trump’s worry.  We tested that in Figures 3-6 where we looked at how homicide rates in Mexican states contiguous to U.S. states are correlated with homicide rates there. 

The White House’s Misleading & Error Ridden Narrative on Immigrants and Crime

President Trump recently held an event with some of the relatives of people killed by illegal immigrants in the United States. Afterward, the White House sent out a press release with some statistics to back up the President’s claims about the scale of illegal immigrant criminality.  The President’s claims are in quotes and my responses follow.

According to a 2011 government report, the arrests attached to the criminal alien population included an estimated 25,000 people for homicide.

Criminal aliens is defined as non-U.S. citizen foreigners, which includes legal immigrants who have not naturalized and illegal immigrants. The 25,064 homicide arrests he referred to occurred from August 1955 through April 2010 – a 55-year period.  During that time, there were about 934,000 homicides in the United States. As a side note, I had to estimate the number of homicides for 1955-1959 by working backward.  Assuming that those 25,064 arrested aliens actually were convicted of 25,064 homicides, then criminal aliens would have been responsible for 2.7 percent of all murders during that time period. During the same time, the average non-citizen resident population of the United States was about 4.6 percent per year. According to that simple back of the envelope calculation, non-citizen residents were underrepresented among murderers.

In Texas alone, within the last seven years, more than a quarter million criminal aliens have been arrested and charged with over 600,000 criminal offenses.  

We recently published a research brief examining the Texas data on criminal convictions and arrests by immigration status and crime. In 2015, Texas police made 815,689 arrests of native-born Americans, 37,776 arrests of illegal immigrants, and 20,323 arrests of legal immigrants. For every 100,000 people in each subgroup, there were 3,578 arrests of natives, 2,149 arrests of illegal immigrants, and 698 arrests of legal immigrants. The arrest rate for illegal immigrants was 40 percent below that of native-born Americans. The arrest rate for all immigrants and legal immigrants was 65 percent and 81 percent below that of native-born Americans, respectively. The homicide arrest rate for native-born Americans was about 5.4 per 100,000 natives, about 46 percent higher than the illegal immigrant homicide arrest rate of 3.7 per 100,000.  Related to this, the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services recently released data that showed the arrest rate for DACA recipients about 46 percent below that of the resident non-DACA population.

More important than arrests are convictions. Native-born Americans were convicted of 409,708 crimes, illegal immigrants were convicted of 15,803 crimes, and legal immigrants were convicted of 17,643 crimes in Texas in 2015. Thus, there were 1,797 criminal convictions of natives for every 100,000 natives, 899 criminal convictions of illegal immigrants for every 100,000 illegal immigrants, and 611 criminal convictions of legal immigrants for every 100,000 legal immigrants. As a percentage of their respective populations, there were 50 percent fewer criminal convictions of illegal immigrants than of native-born Americans in Texas in 2015. The criminal conviction rate for legal immigrants was about 85 percent below the native-born rate.

Figure 1: Criminal conviction rates by immigration status in Texas

Murder understandably garners the most attention. There were 785 total homicide convictions in Texas in 2015. Of those, native-born Americans were convicted of 709 homicides, illegal immigrants were convicted of 46 homicides, and legal immigrants were convicted of 30 homicides. The homicide conviction rate for native-born Americans was 3.1 per 100,000, 2.6 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, and 1 per 100,000 for legal immigrants. In 2015, homicide conviction rates for illegal and legal immigrants were 16 percent and 67 percent below those of natives, respectively.

Figure 2: Homicide conviction rates by immigration status in Texas

Murderers should be punished severely no matter where they are from or what their immigration status is. There are murderers and criminals in any large population, including illegal immigrants. But we should not tolerate the peddling of misleading statistics without context. What matters is how dangerous these subpopulations are relative to each other so the government can allocate resources to prevent the greatest number of murders possible. Thus, enforcing immigration law more harshly is an ineffective way to punish a population that is less likely to murder or commit crimes than native-born Americans. Illegal immigrants, non-citizens, and legal immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated, convicted, or arrested for crimes than native-born Americans are. 

USCIS Report Shows that DACA Arrest Rate Is Below that of Other U.S. Residents

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) released a report showing that 59,789 people who applied for DACA, about 6.7 percent of all 888,875 applicants, were arrested for either a criminal or civil violation.  Of those, 53,792 were approved for DACA after they had been arrested.  Of the 770,628 people approved for DACA, 7,814 were later arrested and reapproved while 1,010 were later arrested and denied DACA.

The USCIS report does not identify convictions, only arrests.  It also does not provide the comparable arrest rates for other populations, giving the false impression that that is a high number of arrests for such a small population.  However, some data released in the report does allow for a back of the envelope comparison between the arrest rate for DACA applicants and the arrest rate for the non-DACA population.  The annual arrest rate of those who applied for DACA is 86 percent below the annual arrest rate for the non-DACA resident population.  The results are similar when controlling for age.

USCIS’ report states that 6.7 percent of people who applied for DACA were arrested at some point.  Some social scientists estimate that about 30 percent of adults in the United States have an arrest record, so by that measure that have an arrest rate 78 percent below the average.  Unfortunately, the government does not record the number of people arrested elsewhere so I cannot compare the arrest rate of the population at large with the arrest rate of DACA-recipients.  The Bureau of Justice Statistics does record the number of arrests made per year and the USCIS report also lists the number of arrests (there is a major difference between the number of arrests and the number of people arrested).

The 888,875 DACA-applicants were arrested 149,712 times during their lives (I start counting in 1981 as that is the earliest year when a DACA recipient could have been born and running through 2017).  During the same time, there were about 485 million arrests of people who were not in DACA.  The number of arrests of DACA-recipients over the entire period is equal to about 16.9 percent of the entire population who applied for DACA.  However, the number of arrests nationwide of non-DACA recipients is equal to about 110 percent of the non-DACA resident population who had lived during the time.  By this measure, there are about 85 percent fewer arrests per DACA applicant than for non-DACA applicants.

There are many ways to slice and dice these numbers.  USCIS points to even better results than our research on DACA criminality.  This might not be what they intended but the USCIS report shows that DACA-applicants are much less likely to be arrested than the rest of the resident U.S. population.   

Note:  This blog was updated by the author on 8/2/2018 due to an error in a previous version that vastly overcounted the DACA arrest rate.

Pages