Tag: Crime

USCIS Report Shows that DACA Arrest Rate is Below that of Other U.S. Residents

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) released a report showing that 59,786 DACA-recipients, or about 7.8 percent of the 770,628 people who earned DACA, have been arrested since the program’s creation in 2012.  The report does not indicate convictions, only arrests.  Even worse, the report does not provide the comparable arrest rate for other populations, giving the false impression that that is a high number of arrests for such a small population.  However, some data released in the report does allow for a back of the envelope comparison between the DACA-arrest rate and the arrest rate for the non-DACA population.  The per capita arrest rate of DACA recipients is 46 percent below the non-DACA resident population.  Controlling for age, the arrest rate for DACA-kids is 63 percent below that of the non-DACA resident population.

USCIS’ report states that 7.8 percent of DACA recipients were arrested from 2012 through the first part of 2018.  The government does not record the number of people arrested elsewhere so I cannot compare the arrest rate of the population at large with the arrest rate of DACA-recipients.  However, the Bureau of Justice Statistics does record the number of arrests made per year and the USCIS report lists the number of arrests (there is a major difference between the number of arrests and the number of people arrested). 

The 59,789 DACA-recipients were arrested 88,478 times.  During the same time, there were about 67.6 million arrests of people who were not in DACA.  The number of arrests of DACA-recipients over the entire period is equal to about 11.5 percent of the entire population approved for the program.  However, the number of arrests nationwide of non-DACA recipients is equal to about 21.2 percent of the non-DACA resident population.  By this measure, there are about 46 percent fewer arrests per DACA-recipient than among non-DACA recipients.  Subtracting out immigration offenses from the DACA-recipients lowers their arrest rate to 10 percent, less than half of the non-DACA population.

Controlling for age gives an even more wildly disproportionate answer.  DACA recipients are aged 37 and below so that population is more likely to be arrested than others.  Keeping their arrest rate the same at 11.5 percent but adjusting the non-DACA population arrest rate for those aged 37 and younger to 31.4 percent means that non-DACA residents have an arrest rate about 2.7 times as great as the DACA arrest rate. 

There are many different ways to slice and dice these numbers.  Substituting different denominators for the average number of DACA recipients per year to the average U.S. resident population gives a similar arrest ratio.  USCIS points to even better results than our research on DACA criminality.  This might not be what they intended but the USCIS report shows that DACA-recipients are much less likely to be arrested than the rest of the resident U.S. population.   

President Trump’s Curious Obsession with Crime

In his Election Day tweet attacking Rep. Mark Sanford, President Trump declared that Sanford’s opponent, Katie Arrington, “is tough on crime and will continue our fight to lower taxes.” Well, maybe. She doesn’t mention either issue on her campaign website. (In fact, she has nothing but bland buzzwords about any issue.)

This tweet is typical. It seems like every time Trump tweets an endorsement or a criticism of a candidate, he calls the candidate “strong (or weak) on crime.” I count 60 Trump tweets since his inauguration that use the word “crime.” Some complain that he is being investigated for a “made up, phony crime” or charge Hillary Clinton with “many crimes.” But most seem to relate to a candidate: Dan Donovan is “strong on Borders & Crime.” Kevin Cramer of North Dakota is “strong on Crime & Borders.” Doug Jones is “WEAK on Crime.” Adam Laxalt is “tough on crime!” “Chuck and Nancy…are weak on Crime.” Ralph Northam is “weak on crime.” Also “VERY weak on crime!” “Keep our country out of the hands of High Tax, High Crime Nancy Pelosi.” And so on.

It’s not obvious that this makes political sense. Candidates aren’t talking much about crime, perhaps because they recognize the substantial decline in crime rates. In numerous Gallup polls over the past year, only 2 to 4 percent of Americans have identified crime as the country’s most important problem. Though about 50 percent of people say they worry a great deal about crime when asked that question directly.

But here’s the thing. Crime in the United States is in fact way down

Here’s a long-term look at the most visible crime, homicide:

U.S. Homicide Rates, 1960-2011 

Here’s a picture of broader crime rates:

U.S. Violent Crime Rate, 1973-2011

And yet, as the same source illustrated, at the very time when crime rates had fallen steadily and substantially for 20 years, 68 percent of Americans said the national crime rate was getting worse. (Crime rates continued to fall after 2011, though there was an uptick in murders in 2015 and 2016. The rate appears to have fallen in 2017.)

Of course, the president is better informed than average Americans. Surely White House staff have explained the crime statistics to President Trump. So why does he talk about “this American carnage” and pound away at the “crime” issue when endorsing candidates who never talk about it? Perhaps it’s part of his continuing use of racially charged language. Perhaps “crime and borders” is just shorthand for the kinds of social change he thinks his voters fear. Or maybe it reflects the fact that he grew up in New York City during a time of sharply rising crime. We all get ideas in our youth (“American cars aren’t well made”) that may stick with us even us as the facts change.

Whatever the reason, it seems curious that he so often cites “strong and crime” as the reason to support political candidates who haven’t talked about crime.

 

Criminal Conviction Rates in Texas in 2016

Cato published my recent Immigration Research and Policy Brief that relied on Texas state criminal data to compare the conviction rates of native-born Americans, legal immigrants, and illegal immigrants. That Texas state data was of such high quality that I was even able to compare conviction rates by the type of crime. The result was that in 2015 the criminal conviction and arrest rates for illegal immigrants were below that of native-born Americans for virtually all crimes including homicide, sexual assault, and larceny. This is just further evidence that illegal immigrants are less crime-prone than native-born Americans. I had to limit my Brief to focus on convictions only in 2015, although I also had the Texas conviction data for 2016, because there were no estimates of the illegal immigrant population statewide for the latter year. 

Since Cato published my brief in February, the estimable Center for Migration Studies published an update of the estimated number of illegal immigrants in Texas for 2016. The following graphs and numbers are the conviction rates for native-born Americans, legal immigrants, and illegal immigrants in the state of Texas in 2016. The conviction rate is the number of convictions per group (native, legal immigrants, and illegal immigrants) divided by the number of Texas residents in each group multiplied by 100,000. The final multiplication step produces the conviction rate per 100,000 residents in each subpopulation, which is how criminologists and the governments portray incarceration, crime, and conviction rates. This is the best way to portray relative crime rates as it controls the different size of the subpopulations.

The criminal conviction rate for native-born Americans in Texas was 2,116 per 100,000 natives in 2016 (Figure 1). The native-born criminal conviction rate was thus 2.4 times as high as the criminal conviction rate for illegal immigrants in that year and 7.2 times as high as that of legal immigrants. 

287(g) Does Not Fight Crime, But It Does Increase Assaults against Police Officers

Fear of immigrant criminality is driving many changes to domestic immigration enforcement programs during the Trump administration.  One of the earliest such changes was the reactivation of the 287(g) program that allows state or local law enforcement agencies to enforce federal immigration law after entering into a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).  The Obama administration substantially scaled back 287(g) after numerous government reports found serious flaws in the program.  Gaston County, North Carolina sheriff Alan Cloninger said his sheriff’s office enrolled in 287(g), “for the protection of the citizens of Gaston County.”  Sheriff Cloninger’s desire to increase public safety is the primary reason, if not the only reason, why 76 local and state level law enforcement agencies across the country have enrolled in 287(g).

Surprisingly, there is little research on whether 287(g) had any effect on crime.  To test whether 287(g) had its intended effect, Cato research associate Andrew Forrester and I investigated whether 287(g) adoption actually lowered crime rates in North Carolina counties where it was established.  From 2003 through 2013, we find no statistically significant relationship between crime rates in counties that adopted 287(g) agreements relative to those that did not in North Carolina.  Importantly, we look at the number of deportations due to 287(g) enforcement by county, which allows us to examine 287(g)’s specific effects.  This means that 287(g) failed to reduce crime in counties where it was activated prior to 2013 when the Obama administration canceled many 287(g) agreements across the country.

In North Carolina, the crime-prevention justification for 287(g) does not hold but neither does the primary critique that it would raise crime rates by reducing citizen cooperation with the police.  It is possible that immigrants in 287(g) counties reported fewer crimes due to fear of immigration enforcement and, thus, an increase in crime would not be recorded in official statistics.  However, some crimes, like murder, are difficult to hide and tend to be reported regardless of local immigration enforcement policies.  To account for this, we further break down the crime rates by the offense and find no relationship between 287(g) and murder or any other individual crime.  Since crime rates did not increase after 287(g) adoption in North Carolina counties, it did not impact trust between local police and the population enough to affect crime rates.   

The only statistically significant relationship that we did find was an increase in the average number of assaults against police officers in 287(g) counties.  We do not know why 287(g) is causally related to the increase in assaults against police officers and we do not know the identities or characteristics of those who committed them.  Besides otherwise law-abiding illegal immigrants who are deported as a result of 287(g) and their American friends, families, consumers, employers, and landlords, police officers in North Carolina also appear to be victims of this program that fails to reduce crime.

Almost 62 percent of the 287(g) agreements currently in effect, 47 out of 76, were signed after President Trump took office.  In the coming months and years, many more state and local law enforcement agencies could also enroll in 287(g) out of the desire to reduce crime.  Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Kerr Putney recently said:  

The intent [of 287(g)] was to make sure we’re taking felons and gang members, who are violent, out of play … If you apply [the program] specific to those reasons, I think you’d have a totally different outcome.  If you’re asking everybody about their national origin, I think it’s a different application.  And so if it were as it were designed, I think it’s a good tool. I don’t know that it’s being applied that way.

Our research addresses Chief Putney’s concern that 287(g) is not an effective anti-crime tool.  The experience of North Carolina’s counties where 287(g) failed to reduce crime while it increased the number of assaults against police officers should at least be a warning to other counties and police agencies that are considering joining this program: It will not reduce crime.

E-Verify Could Have Increased Crime in Arizona

Illegal immigrants who can’t work are more likely to commit crimes in order to support themselves, according to a superb new paper by Matthew Freedman, Emily Owens, and Sarah Bohn that is forthcoming in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.  They examined administrative data from Bexar County, Texas and found an increase in felony charges filed against residents who were most likely to be illegal immigrants after the Immigration Reform and Control Act made it unlawful for illegal immigrants to work in the United States.   

Their finding is especially relevant for the current debate over E-Verify, an electronic eligibility for employment verification system that is supposed to exclude illegal immigrants from the workforce.  The goal of E-Verify is to turn off the wage magnet that attracts illegal immigrants to the United States and open up jobs for American workers.  Although E-Verify fails to lower unemployment and only has a very small effect on dimming the wage magnet, the paper by Freedman et al. points to another possible unintended consequence of mandating E-Verify: higher crime.

Arizona provides a wonderful opportunity to test whether an E-Verify mandate affected crime.  In March 2007, the Arizona House passed the Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA).  The state Senate passed it in May and governor Napolitano signed it in July.  Among other things, LAWA mandated E-Verify for all new employees beginning on January 1, 2008. 

The Fatal Flaw in John R. Lott Jr.’s Study on Illegal Immigrant Crime in Arizona

Economist John R. Lott Jr. of the Crime Prevention Research Center released a working paper in which he purports to find that illegal immigrants in Arizona from 1985 through 2017 have a far higher prison admissions rate than U.S. citizens. Media from Fox News to the Washington Times and the Arizona Republic have reported on Lott’s claims while Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Representative Paul Gosar (R-AZ) have echoed them from their positions of authority. However, Lott made a small but fatal error that undermines his finding. 

Lott wrote his paper based on a dataset he obtained from the Arizona Department of Corrections (ADC) that lists all admitted prisoners in the state of Arizona from 1985 to 2017. According to Lott, the data allowed him to identify “whether they [the prisoners] are illegal or legal residents.” This is where Lott made his small error: The dataset does not allow him or anybody else to identify illegal immigrants.[i] 

The variable that Lott focused on is “CITIZEN.” That variable is broken down into seven categories. Lott erroneously assumed that the third category, called “non-US citizen and deportable,” only counted illegal immigrants. That is not true, non-US citizen and deportable immigrants are not all illegal immigrants. A significant proportion of non-U.S. citizens who are deported every year are legal immigrants who violate the terms of their visas in one way or the other, frequently by committing crimes. According to the American Immigration Council, about 10 percent of people deported annually are Lawful Permanent Residents or green card holders—and that doesn’t include the non-immigrants on other visas who were lawfully present in the United States and then deported. I will write more about this below. 

Lott mistakenly chose a variable that combines an unknown number of legal immigrants with an unknown number of illegal immigrants. Lott correctly observed that “[l]umping together documented and undocumented immigrants (and often naturalized citizens) may mean combining very different groups of people.” Unfortunately, the variable he chose also lumped together legal immigrants and illegal immigrants.

Recapping Immigration Week on the Cato Daily Podcast

All this week, the Cato Daily Podcast (subscribe!) has tackled the myths, errors, and underappreciated elements of immigration policy. President Donald Trump has made a massive reduction in legal immigration a centerpiece of his second year in office, and the sales pitch he’s made on behalf of that plan hinges on a number of false or misleading claims about the costs and benefits of immigration. In case you missed them, here are my discussions with Alex Nowrasteh, David Bier, and Matthew Feeney:

And, not to be left out, Jim Harper discussed his recent paper on new national ID systems including E-Verify, the deeply flawed employment verification system aimed at keeping undocumented immigrants from working in the United States.

Here’s more of Cato’s work on immigration.

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