Tag: CEI

Some Climate Realities for the Incoming Administration to Consider

While the twitterverse is chirping with concern over Donald Trump’s handling of the global warming science, we offer a few realities that should be key parts of any transitional team’s synthesis.

1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that by itself will result in a slight warming of the lower atmosphere and surface temperatures, as well as a cooling of the stratosphere.

     a. All of these have been observed.

 2. Additional warming is provided by a complicated feedback with water vapor. If it were large and positive, so would be future warming.

     a. The observed warming is far below values consistent with a high temperature sensitivity. Therefore future warming will run considerably below any high-sensitivity estimate.

     b. The disparity between observed and forecast warming continues to grow.

The U.S. Department of Chutzpah

For PR professionals, the holiday season is like one big Friday at 5:00 p.m. That’s when you release information that you don’t want getting too much attention.

So it’s no surprise that we learned yesterday that the Transportation Security Administration has just awarded itself the authority to make airport strip-search machines mandatory. Until now, having a machine create a digital representation of your unclothed body has had a happy alternative: a prison-style pat-down! (That’s my choice. It’s sometimes a little massage-y.)

It takes a lot of gall for the Department of Homeland Security to make this move now, though—not because it’s the holiday season, but because the DHS (of which TSA is a part) is currently under a court order to establish the legality of its strip-search machine policies in toto.

In July 2011, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the DHS had failed to follow the procedures required by law when it established its policy of using strip-search machines for primary screening. The court ordered the DHS to “promptly” undertake a notice-and-comment rulemaking. Four years later, our friends at the Competitive Enterprise Institute initiated a new lawsuit seeking to compel DHS to finish what was amounting to an endless rulemaking process.

DHS recently told the D.C. Circuit that it would finish the regulation by March 3, 2016. In the meantime, they’re screwing the lid down just a little bit more on air travelers. Chutzpah!

When the regulation is done, it can finally be challenged under the Administrative Procedure Act’s “arbitrary and capricious standard.” Our John Mueller and Mark Stewart have already shown that strip-search machines are a cost-ineffective security measure.

In a similar vein, rumors are swirling that the DHS will soon announce full REAL ID enforcement at airports. The quiet week between Christmas and New Years seems like a ripe time to get that news out.

They’ve said they’d give 120 days’ notice that TSA is going to start rejecting drivers’ licenses and IDs from states that don’t participate in the national ID system. A December announcement means that April would be white-knuckle time for travelers.

There will not be enforcement, of course. The goal is to bluff about enforcement to state legislatures in advance of their 2016 legislative sessions, so that they’ll pass laws implementing the federal national ID mandate. Just yesterday, two DHS bureaucrats issued orders to Minnesota governor Mark Dayton (D) detailing how the law in Minnesota must change to satisfy their demands.

Federal bureaucrats ordering around governors and legislators! Chutzpah!

DHS isn’t dumb enough to do it … I’m sometimes wrong … but actual REAL ID enforcement at airports would be quite a show. Not only would there be howls of protest aimed at TSA in the media, the DHS would catch a delicious lawsuit from some law-abiding American citizen trying to visit family who is denied the right to travel.

The lawsuit would expose that DHS enforcement is entirely arbitrary. REAL ID is unworkable, and the agency has been handing out waivers like they were candy canes since the statutory deadline in 2008. Having selected a pared-down “material compliance checklist” to treat as compliance, DHS bureaucrats have been arbitrarily claiming that some states are in compliance and some states are not, giving waivers to some states and not to others based on internal, self-selected criteria. That is not how law works, and once they try to enforce, they’ll have to square-up their enforcement efforts with the terms of the REAL ID law, equal protection, and due process.

Should DHS try to show that it has rational criteria for refusing IDs, that may bring in the question of ID security, which, like strip-search machines, is another cost-effectiveness loser. I won’t belabor that point, but my Christmas list includes a TSA and DHS operating under the rule of law, required to defend its programs in light of solid points made by security analysts like this guy Adam.

Learn more than you ever wanted to know about REAL ID from this recent Hill briefing.

Another Step toward Government Under Law

Last week, our friends at the Competitive Enterprise Institute won a small but important victory in the effort to bring the Transportation Security Administration under law. It began when the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) challenged the TSA’s policy of using strip-search machines at airports for primary screening. EPIC’s Fourth Amendment attack failed, but the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals found that the TSA hadn’t used required administrative procedures to establish the policy, and it ordered the agency to promulgate a rule after taking comments from the public.

That was more than four years ago. The agency has been dragging its feet. And last week the court gave TSA thirty days to submit a schedule for “the expeditious issuance of a final rule within a reasonable time.”

Once the TSA has finalized its rule, it will be subject to challenge under the “arbitrary and capricious” standard in federal administrative law. John Mueller, Mark Stewart, and I filed comments during the rulemaking that will help show that the TSA’s policy is incoherent when it’s before the court.

Yes, it’s taking a long time. Courts often defer to agencies as experts in the fields they regulate, though they’re really expert at gaming the regulatory system and the courts. With persistence, though, the effort to bring the TSA under law and reverse its needlessly invasive and expensive programs will bear fruit.

Or responsibility for air security will be restored to airlines and airports.

TSA’s Classified “Risk-Reduction Analysis”

Last month, our friends at the Competitive Enterprise Institute filed suit against the TSA because the agency failed to follow basic administrative procedures when it deployed its notorious “strip-search machines” for use in primary screening at our nation’s airports. Four years after being ordered to do so by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, TSA still hasn’t completed the process of taking comments from the public and finalizing a regulation setting this policy. Here’s hoping CEI’s effort helps make TSA obey the law.

The reason why federal law requires agencies to hear from the public is so that they can craft the best possible rules. Nobody believes in agency omniscience. Public input is essential to gathering the information for setting good policies.

But an agency can’t get good information if it doesn’t share the evidence, facts, and inferences that underlie its proposals and rules. That’s why this week I’ve sent TSA a request for mandatory declassification review relating to a study that it says supports its strip-search machine policy. The TSA is keeping its study secret.

In its woefully inadequate (and still unfinished) policy proposal on strip-search machines, TSA summarily asserted: “[R]isk reduction analysis shows that the chance of a successful terrorist attack on aviation targets generally decreases as TSA deploys AIT. However, the results of TSA’s risk-reduction analysis are classified.”

The Effort to Bring TSA Under Law

Four years ago, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ordered the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to consider the public’s input on its policy of using strip-search machines for primary screening at our nation’s airports. The TSA had “advanced no justification for having failed to conduct a notice-and-comment rulemaking,” the court found. It ordered the agency to “promptly” proceed in a manner consistent with its opinion.

Over the next 20 months, the TSA produced a short, vague paragraph that did nothing to detail the rights of the public and what travelers can expect when they go to the airport. At the time, I called the proposed rule “contemptuous,” because the agency flouted the spirit of the court’s order. In our comment on the proposed rule, Cato senior fellow John Mueller, Mark G. Stewart from the University of Newcastle in Australia, and I took the TSA to task a number of ways.

The comment period on that proposal closed more than two years ago, but the TSA has still not proceeded to finalizing its rule. Continuing the effort to bring the TSA under the rule of law—and into the world of common sense—the Competitive Enterprise Institute filed suit against TSA yesterday, asking the court to require the agency to finalize its strip-search machine rule within 90 days.

People Shouldn’t Be Able to Sue Think Tanks When They Disagree with Us

What’s worse than a public policy debate that turns bitter and impolite? Well, for one, having the courts step into the marketplace of ideas to judge which side of a debate has the best “facts.”

Yet that’s what Michael Mann has invited the D.C. court system to do. In response to some scathing criticism of his methodologies and an allegation of scientific misconduct, the author of the infamous “hockey stick” models of global warming – because they resemble the shape of a hockey stick, with temperatures rising drastically beginning in the 1900s – has taken the global climate change debate to a record low by suing the Competitive Enterprise Institute, National Review, and two individual commentators. The good Dr. Mann claims that some blogposts alleging his work to be “fraudulent” and “intellectually bogus” were libelous. (For more background on the matter, see this excellent summary by NR’s editor Rich Lowry; linking to that post is partly what led Mann to target CEI.)

The D.C. trial court rejected the defendants’ motion to dismiss this lawsuit, holding that their criticism could be taken as a provably false assertion of fact because the EPA, among other bodies, have approved of Mann’s methodologies. In essence, the court seems to cite a consensus as a means of censoring a minority view. The defendants appealed to the D.C. Court of Appeals (the highest court in the District of Columbia).

Cato has now filed a brief, joined by three other think tanks, in which we urge the court to stay out of the business of refereeing scientific debates. (And if you liked our “truthiness” brief, you’ll enjoy this one.)

2,000 Deaths per Year … for the Environment

Something as simple as the concept of tradeoffs can cause cognitive dissonance to good-hearted people who want too hard to drive the society toward their perception of the good.

A nice illustration of that is the cost in lives of making cars that use less gasoline. How can doing good for the environment possibly be harmful? Oh, it can be deadly.

Nicely illustrated by CEI’s Sam Kazman on John Stossel’s show.