April 11, 2012 12:57PM # Overblown on Homegrown? Conference Friday at Cato By [Benjamin H. Friedman](https://www.cato.org/people/benjamin-friedman) --- SHARE After the September 11 attacks, various terrorist experts [warned](http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61911/john-mueller/is-there-still-a-terrorist-threat-the-myth-of-the-omnipresent-en) that sleeper cells hiding the United Sates or hyper-competent terrorists abroad were poised to strike. Those predictions, [happily](http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/abschgo.pdf), proved wrong. Before we could celebrate our safety, however, a new terrorist menace emerged: [homegrown violent extremists](https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sa=X&ei=WOqET9jtMOHb0QGd_rHoBw&ved=0CCQQvwUoAA&q=%22homegrown+violent+extremists%22&spell=1&fp=1&biw=1280&bih=699&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&cad=b). Thanks to a [raft](http://homegrown.newamerica.net/) of [arrests](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/09/AR2010030902670.html) of American born jihadist attackers, plus a couple [real](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-usa-crime-fort-hood-idUSBRE83318M20120404) [attacks](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Little_Rock_recruiting_office_shooting) of that kind, we seem to be experiencing a homegrown terrorism boom. Congress has held [hearings](http://www.hstoday.us/briefings/today-s-news-analysis/single-article/house-senate-to-convene-joint-hearing-on-homegrown-terror-threat-to-us-military/7e1c608ad3d6a6a83f983ca186792949.html). The Department of Homeland Security [is](http://www.hlswatch.com/2012/01/19/behavioral-indicators-of-terrorism/) [encouraging](http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2010/November/Pages/DHSWarnsLocalLawEnforcementOfNewHomegrownTerroristThreat.aspx) local authorities to be on the lookout and [named](http://www.gsnmagazine.com/article/24720/senators_welcome_dhs%E2%80%99_cve_appointment_say_more_eff) a new lead person on CVE (counter violent extremism) matters and a new Counterterrorism Advisory Board to coordinate his activities. [Various](http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/01/18/police-chiefs-to-discuss-terrorism-at-white-house/) [policing](http://www1.cj.msu.edu/~outreach/rcpi/home_secure_anti_terror.htm) [initiatives](http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issue_radicalization.cfm) [aim](http://homeland.house.gov/news/newsday-homegrown-terrorism-focus-conference) to find homegrown terrorists, including those [ubiquitous](http://www.nationalterroralert.com/2010/12/06/if-you-see-something-say-something-comes-to-walmart/) [announcements](http://blog.dhs.gov/2011/08/launching-if-you-see-something-say.html) where recorded officials remind us to be vigilant and report the unusual. Internationally, the new fear is that the virtual decapitation of al Qaeda central in Pakistan has allowed the jihadist threat to the west to [metastasize](http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500202_162-20059285.html), as it mingles with various regional groups. The al Qaeda affiliates in [Yemen](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/24/AR2010082406553.html), [Somalia](http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/07/why-al-shabaab-would-attack-in-uganda/59551/), [Northern Africa](http://www.cfr.org/north-africa/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717) and even [Nigeria](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/boko-haram), are, according to this theory, coordinating with each other and threatening the west by training and radicalizing terrorist operatives, as the old al Qaeda once did in Afghanistan. So U.S. military actions, including drone strikes and training local forces, are needed to defeat these groups. Friday morning, Cato is hosting a brief conference, consisting of two panels, that will critically examine these assumptions. [Risa Brooks](http://www.marquette.edu/polisci/faculty_brooks.shtml), [John Mueller](https://www.cato.org/people/john-mueller) and [Brian Jenkins](http://www.rand.org/about/people/j/jenkins_brian_michael.html) (calling in from California) will look at the local terrorist threat in the United States. They will ask how this set of terrorists compares to [past](http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2004/january/weather_012904) domestic terrorist threats, whether homegrown terrorist attacks are actually up—[some](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/08/homegrown-muslim-terrorism-2011-study_n_1262501.html) say otherwise—and, if they are, whether that increase is largely a [result](http://www.chrgj.org/projects/docs/targetedandentrapped.pdf) of [FBI](http://www.catholic.org/national/national_story.php?id=44828) [sting](http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/09/nation/la-na-bomb-plot-arrest-20101209) [operations](http://www.tauntongazette.com/state_news/x1066526221/Ashland-man-charged-with-plot-to-attack-Pentagon-U-S-Capitol) where the bulk of motivation and expertise to conduct the attack comes from federal agents or informants. The world is, after all, full of impressible idiots capable of being talked into a variety of violent acts. It may be that any increase in the incidence of homegrown terrorist plots is a product of our increased efforts to find it. The panelist may also ask whether the exhortations to be vigilant against domestic terrorists are, thanks to false leads and distraction, [more trouble](http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/do-terrorism-warnings-work-4214) than they are worth. On the second panel, [Glenn Carle](http://glenncarle.com/), [Mitchell Silber](http://www.sipa.columbia.edu/academics/directory/mds2105-fac.html) and [Michael Kenney](https://www.gspia.pitt.edu/AboutGSPIA/FacultyDirectory/FacultyDirectoryDetails/tabid/188/ArticleId/1234/Kenney-Michael.aspx) will look at what has become the global al Qaeda, asking whether it is [withering](http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-Al-Qaeda-Fawaz-Gerges/dp/0199790655) due to weak popular support, whether there is any [center](http://www.amazon.com/Leaderless-Jihad-Networks-Twenty-First-Century/dp/0812240650) directing the cells and affiliates, and how interested these various insurgent jihadist groups are in putting aside their local struggle and attacking western targets. The panel will also consider whether the absence of command and hierarchy in the al Qaeda movement breeds [incompetence](http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/06/the_continuing_3.html) and makes [unlikely](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_implausibility_of_nuclear.html) the technologically sophisticated terrorism—like the [biological](http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=639) or [nuclear](http://www.willterroristsgonuclear.com/) attacks—that we’ve been [told](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_the_Prevention_of_WMD_proliferation_and_terrorism) to expect. There is still time to [sign up](https://www.cato.org/terrorismconference) for Friday’s event. It will also be [streamed live online](https://www.cato.org/live). ##### Related Tags [Defense and Foreign Policy](https://www.cato.org/defense-foreign-policy), [General](https://www.cato.org/general) [![Creative Commons License](/build/cato_2020/images/creative-commons.svg)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) This work is licensed under a [Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).