July 30, 2013 1:45PM 

# An Obamacare Prediction 

By [Michael F. Cannon](https://www.cato.org/people/michael-f-cannon) 

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Based on the White House’s past [lawlessness](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/20/AR2010042005163.html) and [corruption](http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2106789) in the service of Obamacare, I’m willing to venture the following prediction:

> **The Obama administration will announce in August, probably in [a classic Friday news dump](http://www.nationaljournal.com/the-art-of-the-friday-news-dump-20121109), that (1) it will offer Exchange subsidies to [workers](http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/07/12/union-letter-obamacare-will-destroy-the-very-health-and-wellbeing-of-workers/) [enrolled](http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/11/another-union-decries-obamacares-impact-on-members-healthcare-coverage/?print=1) [in](http://www.unionroofers.com/political/issue.aspx/49775) [multiemployer union plans](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578260313912570432.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_6#printMode), and (2) it will pay the FEHBP contribution toward the [Exchange premiums for members of Congress and their staffs](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/30/us/politics/wrinkle-in-health-law-vexes-lawmakers-aides.html?pagewanted=all&pagewanted=print).**

Here’s what makes this prediction interesting: neither of those things would be legal. So, for the record, I really hope this prediction does not come true.

The last time I made a prediction was [this one from December 2012](http://news.investors.com/121412-637171-states-reject-obamacare-exchange-at-deadline.htm):

> HHS maintains they’ll have these \[Exchange\] things up and running by October 2013. I don’t know anyone who is confident about that and I’m ready to predict that they will not.

That prediction proved true when the Obama administration [announced](http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/07/02/we-re-listening-businesses-about-health-care-law) the eligibility verification system for Exchange subsidies would not be ready on time, and took the [not-legal](https://www.cato.org/blog/yes-delaying-obamacares-employer-mandate-illegal) step of delaying enforcement of the eligibility rules for a year.

##### Related Tags 

[Government and Politics](https://www.cato.org/government-politics), [Health Care](https://www.cato.org/health-care) 

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