June 29, 2006 5:28PM 

# Intelligence on Iran 

By [Justin Logan](https://www.cato.org/people/justin-logan) 

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Graham Allison had a [smart piece](http://www.dailystar.com.lb/printable.asp?art_ID=73449&cat_ID=5) in Monday’s *Lebanon Daily Star* warning us that our intelligence in Iran could be bad, and Iran might be closer to a bomb than we think.

That’s certainly true, and it’s made even more worrisome by the fact that *NY Times* reporter James Risen [tells us](http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1678220,00.html) that the entire US intelligence apparatus in Iran was “rolled up” when a CIA agent sent the roster of US assets there to an Iranian double agent.

At the same time, it’s important to have not just a grain, but a *whole shaker of salt* handy when dealing with Iran hawks. Charles Krauthammer [warned in January of this year that](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/17/AR2006011700893.html)

> Instead of being years away from the point of no return for an Iranian bomb…Iran is probably just months away.

Or for a really remarkable piece of bad intelligence, we can look to Michael Ledeen (who claims to have better intelligence on Iran than the CIA, yet who’s [never set foot in Iran](http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2Q2NDY3YzI1NmNmM2Y3NTQwNzdkZWJlMGU2YzliNGQ=)), who [told the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in ***April 2003***](http://www.jinsa.org/articles/print.html/documentid/2012) of the “likelihood that Tehran will test nuclear devices by the end of this summer.”

To borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, I think we’re in “[known unknown](http://www.slate.com/id/2081042/)” territory here. What better time to offer the Iranians a [grand bargain](https://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6366) and get it over with, no?

##### Related Tags 

[Defense and Foreign Policy](https://www.cato.org/defense-foreign-policy), [Iran](https://www.cato.org/iran) 

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